March Madness

[MJO812]

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, mreaves said:

I’d like to see what @powderfreakgets for liquid equivalent in a core sample. Until Friday night, there just hadn’t been much for qpf in the pack. Not that a warm Rainer wouldn’t cause issues, especially with the amount of ice on the rivers but I think we have some liquid storage capacity right now. 

Getting to be about time for a spring snowpack update with cores.  Maybe early next week.

[MJO812]

2 snow events on gfs

[The 4 Seasons]

7 hours ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I ignored the bad data. 

55 to -58 would be something to behold. Who could pull off something like that? International Falls?

[MJO812]

Mid atlantic hit on euro

[CoastalWx]

Torch after the 8th. 

[Torch Tiger]

17 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

We know where this is headed…the same place it’s been headed all season….go with the muted warmth this year, and you’ll win.  I’d be happy with some 50’s, and call it a warm up. And it won’t last either…

lol 

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Torch after the 8th. 

Yup, and then probably one last arctic blast later in the month after fake spring

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Torch after the 8th. 

Yeah but only for a few days.

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Yeah but only for a few days.

Might be for a little while, and then we’ll see what happens after mid month.

[Torch Tiger]

6z ai gfs is a massive pattern change. No going back! wow

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Torch after the 8th. 

It’ll mute…but I’m fine if it doesn’t. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

It’ll mute…but I’m fine if it doesn’t. 

-PNa and east coast ridge doubt it will. But we might change after mid month. Doesn’t matter if it’s 45 or 65….not conducive to snow.

[EastonSN+]

Vs.

Although Chuck stated that the reveral would take 15 days to result in the -NAO so perhaps aligning with phase 8 last 10 days of March?

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

-PNa and east coast ridge doubt it will. But we might change after mid month. Doesn’t matter if it’s 45 or 65….not conducive to snow.

You never learn…that ridge will probably be less amped by the time that timeframe arrives…but ok.  And wasn’t meaning conducive to snow…was meaning it won’t be what it’s advertised to be now. 

[EastonSN+]

 

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Vs.

Although Chuck stated that the reveral would take 15 days to result in the -NAO so perhaps aligning with phase 8 last 10 days of March?

Can start the see the neg NAO forming at the end of the GEFS run.

[dendrite]

25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You never learn…that ridge will probably be less amped by the time that timeframe arrives…but ok.  And wasn’t meaning conducive to snow…was meaning it won’t be what it’s advertised to be now. 

I think this one has more legs. Like Will said, it doesn’t necessarily mean tulips all of the time at the surface, but there’s probably going to be some big pack melt in one way or another.

[WinterWolf]

43 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think this one has more legs. Like Will said, it doesn’t necessarily mean tulips all of the time at the surface, but there’s probably going to be some big pack melt in one way or another.

That’s cool for sure….I’m fine with it. But I’ll be curious to see how it plays out at go time. 

[SJonesWX]

bring on the torch anytime after 3/8. thanks in advance

[#NoPoles]

52 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think this one has more legs. Like Will said, it doesn’t necessarily mean tulips all of the time at the surface, but there’s probably going to be some big pack melt in one way or another.

YES PLEASE!!!

[Kitz Craver]

Still have to watch late March for a final stand

[CoastalWx]

Gfs shifting south early next week. 

[EastonSN+]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs shifting south early next week. 

traded places with the CMC

[HoarfrostHubb]

That is a decent shift.  Let's see if the Euro matches it... it was pretty far north at 0z

[tamarack]

12 hours ago, MJO812 said:

O Boy!  Yet another one misses to the south.  Looking more like 2002-03 here, which was very cold (DJF temp 2nd only to 14-15), nearly 2 feet BN snowfall and only one storm greater than 7.5".  Like this season, the biggest event by far was in January.

[Kitz Craver]

AIGFS is pretty far north

[Typhoon Tip]

Still way out at 270 hours so tfwiw.   The operational GFS is an amplified version of the persistent ens mean coverage I and others have been tracking.   

 

Whether that happens above or not... -PNA.   I suspect at minimum it all means we transition into melt and mud season.  Basically the dawn of spring.  Relax ...it doesn't end snow chances - the return rate on end winter by mid March is something like 6 years - don't quote me; it seems that way. That means there as 82% chance it snows again?  heh somepin like ghat

The timing has moved in, in bulk modeling... I was thinking this was after the 10th, but it's pretty clear that once the 3/4th moves off, trends have been pushing for the Rossby roll-out prior.

[mahk_webstah]

The coming warm up basically means the snowpack queens like me can pack it in.  But it sure doesn't mean the end of threats.

[CoastalWx]

Euro AI south next week.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

The coming warm up basically means the snowpack queens like me can pack it in.  But it sure doesn't mean the end of threats.

At this point I think it’d be funny to finish BN while they crush it down there.