Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[Nomz]

Looking at the HRRR the norlun has been creeping east but jumped way east at 18z. A couple more miles gets DC good. 

[WVsnowlover]

12 minutes ago, Wxtrix said:

huge flakes now accumulating. visibility down to 1/2 mile so moderate snow.

That's wild I'm just down the road from you and no accumulation at all

[Brianonymous]

 

what the hell is that?

[PrinceFrederickWx]

35F and grass has now caved under heavy snow.

Never bet against @MillvilleWx dude knows his stuff:

 

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, Brianonymous said:

 

what the hell is that?

The radar site.

[300 square feet]

Just now, Brianonymous said:

 

what the hell is that?

I’m Curious to know what’s happening under those returns. Heavy snow or sleet?

[stormy]

18 minutes ago, Jrlg1181 said:

Dang ... 0.25 earlier all melted... off and on rain snow.... Suddenly turned into a full on blizzard down here in Waynesboro in the past ten min... gusty winds . Another 0.25 in ten minutes... Road actually caved at 35 temp.

Heavy snow since 2 pm. Nearly an inch...... Road and paved driveway covered.

Temp dropped from 35 to 32.

[clskinsfan]

21 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

It’s interesting to see the 601 traffic cam in Bluemont VA has a coating, but others around the area don’t.

That little bit of elevation helps a ton. 

[WxUSAF]

Temps seems to be ticking down. Maybe a few flakes mixing back in.

[300 square feet]

Big beautiful fatties taking over in Reston. 34/34

[triniiphone]

Snow mixing again in falls church. 

[Terpeast]

Fatties mixing in

[Snowman.]

Big fatties now north of Sterling VA, nearly all snow.

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, 300 square feet said:

I’m Curious to know what’s happening under those returns. Heavy snow or sleet?

Seriously.  It's the radar site.  It's scanning diagonally and picking up more data than it does in other areas and giving false returns.

[Grothar of Herndon]

Fatties mixing in with the last of the rain drops

37/34

 

[mattie g]

36 in Burke (325') and in the process of flipping to snow, even with relatively light rates.

[SolidIcewx]

Flakes mixing in with the rain here in Alexandria at 220’ if that matters.

[300 square feet]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Seriously.  It's the radar site.  It's scanning diagonally and picking up more data than it does in other areas and giving false returns.

I’m not talking about the void. That’s obviously the radar site. I’m curious to know what the precipitation is under those yellow returns.

[LP08]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Seriously.  It's the radar site.  It's scanning diagonally and picking up more data than it does in other areas and giving false returns.

Also bright banding with melting snowflakes making there way down.  Spot on

[GreyHat]

Magnolia 

33F

Big flakes accumulating fast

[clskinsfan]

9 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Amazingly fast. took no time at all

You guys are going to get demolished. Jealous. Enjoy!

[ge0]

guess 3pm was a good call.

temps diving, 33.4

mod snow

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, 300 square feet said:

I’m not talking about the void. That’s obviously the radar site. I’m curious to know what the precipitation is under those yellow returns.

Those are false returns. It's not coming down as heavily as the radar suggests.  Its due to the angle of the radar beam.

[Demeter]

4 minutes ago, Brianonymous said:

 

what the hell is that?

I was just watching this on radar. Wondering myself. 

[Wetbulbs88]

2 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Magnolia 

33F

Big flakes accumulating fast

No location listed. 

[PWC Split]

Took a short ride up in elevation a bit up Bull Run Mtn, at 650’ it was puking fatties, 750’ there was starting to be some stickage and 33F. On the way down 50/50 mix at 500’, at home at 450’ probably 25% big flakes. Hope to see 100% flakes in the next few minutes.

[osfan24]

7 minutes ago, bncho said:

NAM 3k norlun trough larger and more west @Terpeast 

Yikes at the rates outside the IVT. Just nothing happening.

[Wetbulbs88]

It's unclear how folks like 45 miles SE of me are getting snow. 

Not a single flake. Temperature steady at 37-38 the entire day. 

I failed to take into account the rain to snow transition, which always happens far later than models depict.

Hoping we break 3". Expectations very low now. 

[bncho]

So it has begun. 50/50 RASN mix. Temps 35/34. Good luck to everybody

[Roger Ramjet]

11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's actually more of a product of the best is yet to come, but heaviest rates are over the eastern shore right now due to a strong 7H FGEN alignment and closer fetch off the Atlantic. We are in a traditional Miller B where the moisture transport is likely to be weak from southern stream influences outside what occurred this morning from a lead wave that was ripping ahead of the mean trough. This is going as planned, and unfortunately, the proxy of the low and general timing of when the 5H pattern is expected to close off and pass under us will benefit those further east and northeast and only offer a small consolation prize (outside the norlun trough). Was hoping the 5H pattern closed sooner which would've helped us a ton, but the 06z runs last night kind of started the very slow bleed the wrong way in that regard and it's basically going to be a "just missed" scenario for a bigger storm, but we still get some snow out of it, which we can't say for all Miller B's. 

Do you think the 5H is closing off now. Heavy snow here with all surfaces caving.