2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[baltosquid]

Wait til it captures... then I think we know the word

[bncho]

closed off neg tilted low at 51

[Alfoman]

The main fronto band slowly slipping away from the metro

[ravensrule]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Wait til it captures... then I think we know the word

HOLY FOLKS. 

[LeesburgWx]

[MN Transplant]

Sticking with the solution.  If it goes down, it is going down swinging.

[IUsedToHateCold]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

That's a Nat 20 panel. I'll sign for it now. 

[Cobalt]

AI GFS is a tick back - 0.9" QPF for DC

[DDweatherman]

Nothing like everything being better but qpf not being better 

[EHoffman]

Subsidence at 48 is nasty work for DC

[bncho]

It's an NYC special. h5 is better that's all that matters for me

[DDweatherman]

That gfs run should have 1000% been better at the surface. H5 at 54 is more negative and more intense with almost a perfect axis.  

[Wetbulbs88]

Just now, bncho said:

It's an NYC special. h5 is better that's all that matters for me

This reminds me of Boxing Day 2011. Which does not make me feel good. GFS was the loan out wire showing a massive hit for DC and then we got nothing.
 

Hoping we can overcome climo which typically jumps us on the coastal development. 

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Sticking with the solution.  If it goes down, it is going down swinging.

I liked upstairs the whole way through more than 12z if I’m being honest. Show me that again at 0z

[bncho]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

That gfs run should have 1000% been better at the surface. H5 at 54 is more negative and more intense with almost a perfect axis.  

The systemic issue is the track it takes. It's almost too textbook lol.

As long as h5 is better, i'm FINE!

[LeesburgWx]

Yeah, it's a good run. H5 looked great. 

[Wetbulbs88]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

That gfs run should have 1000% been better at the surface. H5 at 54 is more negative and more intense with almost a perfect axis.  

Except it was way overdoing things to begin with. It’s probably a form more realistic solution now.

I would very much take this in a heartbeat. I’m hoping this is what actually verifies.

[Solution Man]

I need a clown map please 

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

I need a clown map please 

still a bit more to come for east of the bay after this panel.

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, Paleocene said:

So close for more. I would take this instantly though

[baltosquid]

Give the h5 another nudge like that at 00z and I think we won't have to worry about the surface presentation responding. On to the Ukie.

[IronTy]

I'll take my 30" of snow thank you very much.  Safe to say I'll be doing this storm at the house in Calvert.  

[midatlanticweather]

That H5 and track would indicate more precip north and west. Another good run by the gfs. 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, snowfan said:

EJ posted FOLKS, remembered he wasn't randy and deleted it.

Yea I don't want to jinx this. We're so close.

[Ji]

if the GFS loses this when the storm actually forms in 24 hours---it should be retired asap. I get losing it 2 days ago or 3 days ago but NOW it cant lose it

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

This buries @CAPE into another universe. It's not too shabby for the rest of us either. I'll take 20 inches to match the Nat 20 roll. 

Ive  been NAM'd?

LOL 3 feet

[SnowGolfBro]

Baby steps. The trend is our friend

[ravensrule]

Just now, CAPE said:

Ive  been NAM'd?

LOL 3 feet

Clean up that extra bedroom, I’m heading over Sunday morning. 

[CAPE]

Eh, only 26" on the GFS.

[SnowGolfBro]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

if the GFS loses this when the storm actually forms in 24 hours---it should be retired asap. I get losing it 2 days ago or 3 days ago but NOW it cant lose it

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