2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Amped said:

1002mb to 977mb in 12 hrs

Blizzard. Wow.

[Eskimo Joe]

I'm all in. 100% invested. It's game time. Let's do this. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

NAM is the most aggressive with the flip to accumulating snow. We've seen the opposite before, where the NAM tries to flip us to sleet and we all laugh, until it happens. Hopefully the NAM is getting the vertical profiles correct and we all win.

Soundings have us at 33-34 at 18z tomorrow. Other runs/models were 35-37

[yoda]

Lol 6 level contour closed off h5 at 36

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Nam is a smoke show, absolutely beautiful 

Maybe not "smoke" per se, but pasted with mashed potatoes sticking to every single surface if that verifies!!

[Imgoinhungry]

NAM is the most aggressive with the flip to accumulating snow. We've seen the opposite before, where the NAM tries to flip us to sleet and we all laugh, until it happens. Hopefully the NAM is getting the vertical profiles correct and we all win.

Yep! NAM tends to do the best with what is going on up above. Nailed last month’s sleetfest.


.

[Solution Man]

How we doing 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Soundings have us at 33-34 at 18z tomorrow. Other runs/models were 35-37

Does it crash temps (relatively speaking) after 18Z sometime?

[NorthArlington101]

It was nearly the most accurate IMO with the flip over to sleet in the January storm. 

Was garbage at the QPF though until the last second. But this is a fun run. No doubt

[yoda]

Wtf is this

 

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, yoda said:

Wtf is this

 

I need clown maps asap. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, yoda said:

Wtf is this

 

First tropical system of the season??? 

[Cobalt]

Lol the NAM's gonna put down 2.0" QPF+ at BWI.. 1.5" at DCA

[Amped]

Precip shield is more spread out to the northwest ths run instead of concentrated over snj. Makes the forecast easier.

[Ji]

13 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

The 18z NAM is way west of 12z

that may not be a good thing if its taking the enhancment west and still not giving us CCB

[LeesburgWx]

We are back! All my chips in the NAM at this point after watching it own everything 12-18 hours out with the sleet storm

[aldie 22]

I'm not giving up back here for something decent despite what my fellow Valley boys keep saying 

[peribonca]

Randy might want to get a flight back asap

[Wetbulbs88]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

that may not be a good thing if its taking the enhancment west and still not giving us CCB

Bro, this is good news. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Lol the NAM's gonna put down 2.0" QPF+ at BWI.. 1.5" at DCA

The scream you hear in the distance is every utility crew in the area. 

[beanskip]

For those of you keeping score at home, 965 mb (as the 18z NAM just showed) would be the cutoff between Cat 2 and Cat 3 if this was tropical.

(Enjoying the hell out of watching y'all track this from down here in Tallahassee -- let the big dog eat!)

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

that may not be a good thing if its taking the enhancment west and still not giving us CCB

The hell you talking about 

[yoda]

Still snowing moderately in DC metro at 45 on 18z NAM 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

We are back! All my chips in the NAM at this point after watching it own everything 12-18 hours out with the sleet storm

[NorthArlington101]

Randy might want to get a flight back asap

Might as well fly into Islip. Get your money’s worth

[bncho]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

I was thinking about the NAM in an Indian restaurant, then I saw this… perhaps a harbinger for 18z

now hold on a minute....

[Jersey Andrew]

1 minute ago, beanskip said:

For those of you keeping score at home, 965 mb (as the 18z NAM just showed) would be the cutoff between Cat 2 and Cat 3 if this was tropical.

(Enjoying the hell out of watching y'all track this from down here in Tallahassee -- let the big dog eat!)

How low did White Hurricane of 1888 go?

[beanskip]

1 minute ago, Jersey Andrew said:

How low did White Hurricane of 1888 go?

Quick search finds that 955 mb is the lowest for non-tropical. 1888 storm -- 980.

[MN Transplant]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Still snowing moderately in DC metro at 45 on 18z NAM 

Not sure about moderate.  We are tacking on 0.01 to 0.02”/hr from 3am on.

[LP08]

The whole state of NJ is over 25” on the NAM lol