2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[winter_warlock]

 Which is better and more accurate in short range, nam, GFS , hrrr, rap?

[baltosquid]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

We definitely do the best when all our UL passes align. We need to improve that today. How’d it look on the NAM? 

Was weaker on the NAM. Deepens to 288 on the GFS but only 291 on the NAM. This is at hour 27. 
 

edit: terminology mixup, I mean there’s a 288 line on GFS and only 291 on the NAM, so the GFS is deeper

[87storms]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Gfs is about identical for Delmarva and points NE. Naso identical for the rest of us lol

Miller Bs can never be trusted.

[nw baltimore wx]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Which is better and more accurate in short range, nam, GFS , hrrr, rap?

You should read that again.  You know the answer.  There's a choice, E.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, 87storms said:

Miller Bs can never be trusted.

Doesn’t have that much to do with miller b logic here

[winter_warlock]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

You should read that again.  You know the answer.

 I'm guessing Nam. But never sure which model is most accurate anymire

[87storms]

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

The relatively strong performance of Frederick County VA does not.  

We’re gonna get 2-4” of snow with a back edge that forms before the precip arrives and we’re gonna like it.

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

You should read that again.  You know the answer.  There's a choice, E.

 So none 

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

 I'm guessing Nam. But never sure which model is most accurate anymire

When it comes to snow around here, the choice is E.  None of the above.

[Eskimo Joe]

It's a Miller B, in DC, in LA Nina, at the end of February. Those are heart breakers 9 out of 10 times, yet we're still going to get snow. Where do I sign?

[87storms]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Doesn’t have that much to do with miller b logic here

Coastals usually form too late for us. We’ll get snow, but these systems always target northeast md (lower end) to Boston (high end). It’s the case like 95% of the time. 

[WxUSAF]

Guess I’ll stick with 2-6” for MBY lol

[baltosquid]

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

Could be quite the gradient from western Talbot to your house. Mt Holly goalposts are still real wide 1 to 16" range...

The Euro and CMC are depicting maybe 4-6". With the heavier stuff just to the East/NE. We shall see in the next few model cycles. 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

When it comes to snow around here, the choice is E.  None of the above.

Gotcha !

[TowsonWeather]

4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I kinda expected that to happen at some point. The euro demands respect.

The GFS has ANNIHILATED the Euro for this storm. Let’s not be ridiculous and pretend that a 50-mile swing is somehow more meaningful than the fact that the GFS has been correct about the evolution of this storm long before the Euro stopped sending it to Bermuda and finally, grudgingly climbed aboard.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, baltosquid said:

As I said, not east for folks north, just nudged the axis at our lat to the east. we could definitely see this nudge east or bounce around some today. 

[mappy]

23 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I don't live in cross junction.  Im in stephens city.

You should update your location 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, TowsonWeather said:

The GFS has ANNIHILATED the Euro for this storm. Let’s not be ridiculous and pretend that a 50-mile swing is somehow more meaningful than the fact that the GFS has been correct about the evolution of this storm long before the Euro stopped sending it to Bermuda and finally, grudgingly climbed aboard.

So can the euro move another 50 miles west at 12z like it did to come back at 6z? 

[87storms]

1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said:

The GFS has ANNIHILATED the Euro for this storm. Let’s not be ridiculous and pretend that a 50-mile swing is somehow more meaningful than the fact that the GFS has been correct about the evolution of this storm long before the Euro stopped sending it to Bermuda and finally, grudgingly climbed aboard.

It caught onto the idea of the coastal first but the euro has barely budged either once it latched on, and is the best model. It’s foolish to think the gfs is right before the storm even starts.

[EastCoast NPZ]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

You should update your location 

I thought i did.  But on my phone it doesn't show locations.  But I'll update. 

[Golf757075]

168hrs out, the gfs was showing a monster storm close to the BM, which looks to verify but the euro wasn't at that time. Its just going to get going north and east of DC imo. Location matters most of the time.

[rjvanals]

5 minutes ago, 87storms said:

It caught onto the idea of the coastal first but the euro has barely budged either once it latched on, and is the best model. It’s foolish to think the gfs is right before the storm even starts.

GFS is about to be 0-4 in predicting major snowstorms for DC this winter 

[Fozz]

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's a Miller B, in DC, in LA Nina, at the end of February. Those are heart breakers 9 out of 10 times, yet we're still going to get snow. Where do I sign?

IMO it’s all about when the H5 low closes. In Feb 9-10, 2010, it passed under the region.

But this time it closes just a little too late for the big totals. Hopefully it happens just a bit earlier than the models are saying.

[aldie 22]

11 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Lol not much change for me

[Stormchaserchuck1]

15z RAP keeps it rain for a while along I-95 while heavier rates change it to heavy snow in eastern MD/DE. Weird run. 

[MillvilleWx]

500mb progression on the GFS is actually similar to the HRRR/RAP/NAMNest/NAM in terms of when the height fields close off and their general placements through 12z Monday. The GFS doesn't have anything beyond 09z Monday unless you're at the coast and drifts quickly to the northeast to limit additional snowfall which other models carry. I think it's cutting that off too quickly, and it also doesn't have the leading edge further north into the NW zones and the north-central portion of the sub-forum as it migrates the heaviest further south towards Rt50 and SoMD. I feel the initial is better handled by the rest of guidance. 

ECMWF is the furthest east, weakest, and driest. Unless is scores a major coup there, it's underdoing things too much, even if it had the "right" idea of being a bit further east. 

I am forecasting now and I can tell you I will not be using much EC deterministic, but more its ensemble blends to help with the forecast. What you see for the official WPC forecast is mine, so that will be what I think. I'll share when its online. 

[SnowGolfBro]

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Lol not much change for me

It sucks because tiny changes the wrong way have a big impact. But this is just noise looking at the comparison. Could easily jump back to a better look for the DC area at HH

[DDweatherman]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

500mb progression on the GFS is actually similar to the HRRR/RAP/NAMNest/NAM in terms of when the height fields close off and their general placements through 12z Monday. The GFS doesn't have anything beyond 09z Monday unless you're at the coast and drifts quickly to the northeast to limit additional snowfall which other models carry. I think it's cutting that off too quickly, and it also doesn't have the leading edge further north into the NW zones and the north-central portion of the sub-forum as it migrates the heaviest further south towards Rt50 and SoMD. I feel the initial is better handled by the rest of guidance. 

ECMWF is the furthest east, weakest, and driest. Unless is scores a major coup there, it's underdoing things too much, even if it had the "right" idea of being a bit further east. 

I am forecasting now and I can tell you I will not be using much EC deterministic, but more its ensemble blends to help with the forecast. What you see for the official WPC forecast is mine, so that will be what I think. I'll share when its online. 

Makes good sense. 6z eps was a move west with features and a good h5 look. 

[wasnow215]

4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Lol not much change for me

Yep-and better for RVA