2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Dear @AlexD1990,

I'm writing to inform you that you're getting pummeled.

Still room for improvement on the H5... if it can go negative about 6 hours sooner

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Still room for improvement on the H5

Everything is kinda messy. Plus if that had turned negative tilt quicker it'll be slightly more west and wetter.

[arlwx12]

Snip of WX;s300AFD:

Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the Allegheny and Blue
Ridge Mountains, north central and northeast Maryland, and the
Catoctin Mountains for Sunday into Monday. Gale Watch has also been
issued for the Chesapeake Bay and the lower tidal Potomac
River.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
-1) Winter Storm Watches have been issued for parts of the area
 Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Winter Storm Watches have been issued for parts of the area
Sunday into Monday.

No notable changes were observed with the 12Z guidance with
respect to the low pressure fcst to develop off the NC coast
Sunday with the GFS remaining on its world and the Canadian and
ECMWF models showing similar scenarios.

While the Canadian and ECMWF models trended a little closer to
the coast with the position of the low center, they still
remain a good distance from Washington DC, roughly 300 nm, so
that the sweet spot of this storm remains far east from our
area.

Precip is expected to develop across the area Sunday morning on
the north side of developing sfc low pressure to the southeast. It
should be initially fall as rain or rain/snow mix as low-
levels will be too warm. In addition, the precip intensity
initially will be light, so that any snow that falls will have
a difficult time accumulating on roads other than grassy areas
or at high elevations. Most of the day Sunday should be like
that with snow falling at temperatures around 34 at light
intensity.

Sunday night, upper level trough will be digging across the OH
Valley and Mid-Atlantic states and provide strong lift to
generate widespread light to moderate snow. The best low-level
and upper level forcing will be focused across the area of
northern central and northeast MD along an inverted-trof axis.
This area seems to have the least amount of uncertainty with
respect to QPF according to the latest 12Z EPS ensembles with
QPF amounts generally around half inch liquid equivalent. While
snow ratios will likely lower than normal, potential banding may
offset lower ratios and more marginal temperatures. The snow
will likely continue through Sunday night before tapering in
intensity or exiting the area around daybreak Monday. Gusty NW
winds will follow Monday in the wake of the storm. Elsewhere,
light snow is expected Sunday night tapering off after midnight
from west to east, except in the mountain areas where upslope
flow will continue to generate snow snowers.

[Solution Man]

Nam is solidly onboard if that says anything 

[baltosquid]

Just now, Interstate said:

Still room for improvement on the H5... if it can go negative about 6 hours sooner

We got the one Canadian shortwave to trend better and play nice, now we need the other one to back off. This had more potential than the improvements we're already seeing imo with the heights ahead being that much better.

[bncho]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Nam is solidly onboard if that says anything 

look at the 3k go!

[Cobalt]

hr 57 is a mauling for the Eastern Shore.. very solid for DC proper also, 0.3" QPF in 3 hours. 

[LP08]

21z on the 3k…hope it’s not that warm.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

look at the 3k go!

That is what I was using, it looks damn good

[Solution Man]

Just now, LP08 said:

21z on the 3k…hope it’s not that warm.

Hope for heavy rates

[MN Transplant]

I understand why we are ignoring it, but the NAM 3km is a torch at the surface.  Still 37/38 by late afternoon Sunday.

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I understand why we are ignoring it, but the NAM 3km is a torch at the surface.  Still 37/38 by late afternoon Sunday.

precip is also substantially lighter when compared to 12k NAM, which probably explains the discrepancy in temperatures.

[bncho]

12" 10:1 for DC on the NAM 12k (take this total with a grain of salt and move on with the day)

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I understand why we are ignoring it, but the NAM 3km is a torch at the surface.  Still 37/38 by late afternoon Sunday.

is the 3k NAM (or frankly any NAM for that matter) still out of its range for thermals despite its exceptional skill in that area?

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I understand why we are ignoring it, but the NAM 3km is a torch at the surface.  Still 37/38 by late afternoon Sunday.

Agreed, very little accumulation.

[T. August]

12k gonna be 45” for someone on the eastern shore

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, T. August said:

12k gonna be 45” for someone on the eastern shore

Got a map?

[Imgoinhungry]

I understand why we are ignoring it, but the NAM 3km is a torch at the surface.  Still 37/38 by late afternoon Sunday.

GRAF model shows this as well. I am expecting a minor event because of this.


.

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Got a map?

DIY ratios plz

edit: do your own ratios is the message. example: that shows me at around 10" 10:1. cut that down to 7" for 7:1 ratios and remove 2" for melting and I get 5" from that. simple math

[DDweatherman]

Nam is trending towards yesterday’s GFS runs. One more improvement at h5 and it’s gonna have 18-24 over I-95

[MillvilleWx]

NAMNest 5H progression would be a kick in the nuts for anyone west of the Bay. Takes forever to close off, so its the eastern Delmarva and points north that get into anything appreciable and just some modest stuff away from there. Shore would get buried. Thermals are meh too within the lower PBL. I'm more worried about that than anything else tbh. 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Nam is trending towards yesterday’s GFS runs. One more improvement at h5 and it’s gonna have 18-24 over I-95

 One can only hope bro!!!

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

50-100 miles west and we are “crushed, pummeled”. 50-100 miles east and we are “bust, sad face”. Crazy

[IUsedToHateCold]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

This buries @CAPE into another universe. It's not too shabby for the rest of us either. I'll take 20 inches to match the Nat 20 roll. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

DIY ratios plz

I mean historically...when has I-95 got 10" and the eastern shore more than double? Lol

[Interstate]

The 12K looks the the GFS yesterday morning

[DDweatherman]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

NAMNest 5H progression would be a kick in the nuts for anyone west of the Bay. Takes forever to close off, so its the eastern Delmarva and points north that get into anything appreciable and just some modest stuff away from there. Shore would get buried. Thermals are meh too within the lower PBL. I'm more worried about that than anything else tbh. 

I’m really gaining a bit of confidence with the solutions we are seeing, the Nam looked really solid leading into about h42, got a little more messy after that, but one more move west for a cleaner phase & tilt and it’s a boom scenario for most of us.

[Weather Will]

WB 3K NAM is now in range. Lot of white rain west of the Bay on Sunday unless the storm shifts west.

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

This buries @CAPE into another universe. It's not too shabby for the rest of us either. I'll take 20 inches to match the Nat 20 roll. 

If it verified I think NJ might just sink into the ocean. 

[mitchnick]

Kuchera 

[Imgoinhungry]

WB 3K NAM is now in range. Lot of white rain west of the Bay on Sunday unless the storm shifts west.

I think this is the likely outcome. Thanks for posting kuchera!


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