2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

Ya that’ll change later now the euro just went boom 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

More like the jester on this storm. Finally catches on in the last 24hrs 

Euro did get schooled here it seems, pretty rare.  Nice to see though it’s more fun when we don’t know which model is right. 

[Jake Wx]

12z EURO KUCHERA

[wasnow215]

Clown maps? Sorry but usually it doesn't take this long lol... sorry I said it now need a wider shot ha ha

[baltosquid]

That was easily the best h5 the euro has given for this. Not a small adjustment. And check the layers - pretty stacked through 700 a few dozen miles offshore. Wow. 
 

…can we get one more?

[Snowman.]

Just now, Jake Wx said:

12z EURO KUCHERA

Damn Western Loudoun smoked 

[MillvilleWx]

ECMWF definitely folded and the 5H progression is great through 00z, then it kicks east-northeast instead of north-northeast like it should on the capture. It's coming into better alignment with other guidance like the GFS and hi-res. It's still a little too dry overall considering the setup, but it's a big shift in the grand scheme and a final fold to how this will materialize. QPF is going to be tough with this one. Our forecast should be on the website now and it's a very sharp gradient from Easton to DC with more east. It's plausible it's too light, but there will be adjustments tonight. Still a general 3-6" for a lot of the region with 5-10" across the M/D from Carroll on east. The norlun trough is a stripe of 6-10" now. That setup is delicate. Updated forecast will be out later. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, baltosquid said:

That was easily the best h5 the euro has given for this. Not a small adjustment. And check the layers - pretty stacked through 700 a few dozen miles offshore. Wow. 
 

…can we get one more?

Keep it coming! 

[AmericanWxFreak]

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[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Sunday or Monday?

Monday 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

That was easily the best h5 the euro has given for this. Not a small adjustment. And check the layers - pretty stacked through 700 a few dozen miles offshore. Wow. 
 

…can we get one more?

That was a sweet run man. That’s what I’m saying, maybe it does what mill said it should and kick NNE more than ENE and gets a bit wetter. I’ll take the exact h5 on 18z leading in and bet we get a beefier set of maps. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

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Sorry, just tried to post the new map a single time. My Tapatalk is glitching out.


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[baltosquid]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

That was a sweet run man. That’s what I’m saying, maybe it does what mill said it should and kick NNE more than ENE and gets a bit wetter. I’ll take the exact h5 on 18z leading in and bet we get a beefier set of maps. 

Weenie handbook subsection C article 14.7.2. “The best banding sets up NW of modeling”

[poolz1]

5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

He'll yes. Most of the 12z models want to get us good with the IVT

Our best shot at this thing.  I hope we are puking dendrites for several hours tomorrow night.

[Eskimo Joe]

17 minutes ago, bncho said:

oh baby

Amazing trends at 500mb. Clearly closed, neutrally tilted mid level low.

[osfan24]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I think this is a pretty good map, except there will be a narrow IVT jackpot zone somewhere in our area

 

 

Poor them having to wait an entire four years for another blizzard.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Amazing trends at 500mb. Clearly closed, neutrally tilted mid level low.

This is how we hit our boom scenarios. The models are also all starting to bomb this thing into the 970’s at our latitude…

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

I genuinely thought you moved and was happy for you to be out of the desert 

I did move to cross junction in 2020, which was good for snow - but no better for rain, but i moved back to stephens city in 2023.  I'm so dumb, I moved here twice. Lol. 

[Ravens94]

Yall up there i wouldn't trust the euro worth a shit. Showed me getting 2 inches here in NC 6 hours before and got 15. The euro has been pure ass. The GFS-NAM-HRRR nailed here.

[baltosquid]

Also I am encouraged it wasn’t one run to get to this. After the air went out of things at 00z, it started this move at 06z then accelerated it at 12z. Hopefully it’s just picking up on a final, persistent trend now and not a windshield wiper…

[Jake Wx]

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Also I am encouraged it wasn’t one run to get to this. After the air went out of things at 00z, it started this move at 06z then accelerated it at 12z. Hopefully it’s just picking up on a final, persistent trend now and not a windshield wiper…

The NAM should keep it going and blow our doors off at 18z. The 15k sref should be out soon..

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, Jake Wx said:

 

your gif speed there is a little frenetic, but it's fun to watch how as the euro figures out that this thing is tucking, the pressure bombs out. 990mb forecast to 977mb forecast for 04z monday... in just 24 hours of runs

[Imgoinhungry]

Just got home from my daughters bball game. On the euro, how much precipitation after 4 or 5pm on sunday? Dont think we will see much stickage until then?


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[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Bob Ryan shared a map that the NBM has D.C. over 9"!

[LeesburgWx]

19 minutes ago, Jake Wx said:

qpf totals for are area

LOVING the IVT band over Loudoun

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

5 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Also I am encouraged it wasn’t one run to get to this. After the air went out of things at 00z, it started this move at 06z then accelerated it at 12z. Hopefully it’s just picking up on a final, persistent trend now and not a windshield wiper…

You particularly were mentioning the good trends at 500 and were patient, now they’re showing up at the surface!! Nice job!!

[DDweatherman]

The euro even gets us a taste of some wind it appears on 12z with a deeper bombing low at our lat…could be fun

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

LOVING the IVT band over Loudoun

We may well get pummeled with that if lucky. Even if not, euro was a great shift in our favor

[Negnao]

5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

The NAM should keep it going and blow our doors off at 18z. The 15k sref should be out soon..

15z improved.