winter_warlock Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Which is better and more accurate in short range, nam, GFS , hrrr, rap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: We definitely do the best when all our UL passes align. We need to improve that today. How’d it look on the NAM? Was weaker on the NAM. Deepens to 288 on the GFS but only 291 on the NAM. This is at hour 27. edit: terminology mixup, I mean there’s a 288 line on GFS and only 291 on the NAM, so the GFS is deeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Gfs is about identical for Delmarva and points NE. Naso identical for the rest of us lol Miller Bs can never be trusted. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Which is better and more accurate in short range, nam, GFS , hrrr, rap? You should read that again. You know the answer. There's a choice, E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, 87storms said: Miller Bs can never be trusted. Doesn’t have that much to do with miller b logic here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: You should read that again. You know the answer. I'm guessing Nam. But never sure which model is most accurate anymire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said: The relatively strong performance of Frederick County VA does not. We’re gonna get 2-4” of snow with a back edge that forms before the precip arrives and we’re gonna like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: You should read that again. You know the answer. There's a choice, E. So none 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, winter_warlock said: I'm guessing Nam. But never sure which model is most accurate anymire When it comes to snow around here, the choice is E. None of the above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 It's a Miller B, in DC, in LA Nina, at the end of February. Those are heart breakers 9 out of 10 times, yet we're still going to get snow. Where do I sign? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Doesn’t have that much to do with miller b logic here Coastals usually form too late for us. We’ll get snow, but these systems always target northeast md (lower end) to Boston (high end). It’s the case like 95% of the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Guess I’ll stick with 2-6” for MBY lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 20 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said: Could be quite the gradient from western Talbot to your house. Mt Holly goalposts are still real wide 1 to 16" range... The Euro and CMC are depicting maybe 4-6". With the heavier stuff just to the East/NE. We shall see in the next few model cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: When it comes to snow around here, the choice is E. None of the above. Gotcha ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, 87storms said: I kinda expected that to happen at some point. The euro demands respect. The GFS has ANNIHILATED the Euro for this storm. Let’s not be ridiculous and pretend that a 50-mile swing is somehow more meaningful than the fact that the GFS has been correct about the evolution of this storm long before the Euro stopped sending it to Bermuda and finally, grudgingly climbed aboard. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, baltosquid said: As I said, not east for folks north, just nudged the axis at our lat to the east. we could definitely see this nudge east or bounce around some today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 23 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I don't live in cross junction. Im in stephens city. You should update your location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, TowsonWeather said: The GFS has ANNIHILATED the Euro for this storm. Let’s not be ridiculous and pretend that a 50-mile swing is somehow more meaningful than the fact that the GFS has been correct about the evolution of this storm long before the Euro stopped sending it to Bermuda and finally, grudgingly climbed aboard. So can the euro move another 50 miles west at 12z like it did to come back at 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said: The GFS has ANNIHILATED the Euro for this storm. Let’s not be ridiculous and pretend that a 50-mile swing is somehow more meaningful than the fact that the GFS has been correct about the evolution of this storm long before the Euro stopped sending it to Bermuda and finally, grudgingly climbed aboard. It caught onto the idea of the coastal first but the euro has barely budged either once it latched on, and is the best model. It’s foolish to think the gfs is right before the storm even starts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, mappy said: You should update your location I thought i did. But on my phone it doesn't show locations. But I'll update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golf757075 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 168hrs out, the gfs was showing a monster storm close to the BM, which looks to verify but the euro wasn't at that time. Its just going to get going north and east of DC imo. Location matters most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, 87storms said: It caught onto the idea of the coastal first but the euro has barely budged either once it latched on, and is the best model. It’s foolish to think the gfs is right before the storm even starts. GFS is about to be 0-4 in predicting major snowstorms for DC this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's a Miller B, in DC, in LA Nina, at the end of February. Those are heart breakers 9 out of 10 times, yet we're still going to get snow. Where do I sign? IMO it’s all about when the H5 low closes. In Feb 9-10, 2010, it passed under the region. But this time it closes just a little too late for the big totals. Hopefully it happens just a bit earlier than the models are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 11 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Lol not much change for me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 15z RAP keeps it rain for a while along I-95 while heavier rates change it to heavy snow in eastern MD/DE. Weird run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 500mb progression on the GFS is actually similar to the HRRR/RAP/NAMNest/NAM in terms of when the height fields close off and their general placements through 12z Monday. The GFS doesn't have anything beyond 09z Monday unless you're at the coast and drifts quickly to the northeast to limit additional snowfall which other models carry. I think it's cutting that off too quickly, and it also doesn't have the leading edge further north into the NW zones and the north-central portion of the sub-forum as it migrates the heaviest further south towards Rt50 and SoMD. I feel the initial is better handled by the rest of guidance. ECMWF is the furthest east, weakest, and driest. Unless is scores a major coup there, it's underdoing things too much, even if it had the "right" idea of being a bit further east. I am forecasting now and I can tell you I will not be using much EC deterministic, but more its ensemble blends to help with the forecast. What you see for the official WPC forecast is mine, so that will be what I think. I'll share when its online. 16 6 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Lol not much change for me It sucks because tiny changes the wrong way have a big impact. But this is just noise looking at the comparison. Could easily jump back to a better look for the DC area at HH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, MillvilleWx said: 500mb progression on the GFS is actually similar to the HRRR/RAP/NAMNest/NAM in terms of when the height fields close off and their general placements through 12z Monday. The GFS doesn't have anything beyond 09z Monday unless you're at the coast and drifts quickly to the northeast to limit additional snowfall which other models carry. I think it's cutting that off too quickly, and it also doesn't have the leading edge further north into the NW zones and the north-central portion of the sub-forum as it migrates the heaviest further south towards Rt50 and SoMD. I feel the initial is better handled by the rest of guidance. ECMWF is the furthest east, weakest, and driest. Unless is scores a major coup there, it's underdoing things too much, even if it had the "right" idea of being a bit further east. I am forecasting now and I can tell you I will not be using much EC deterministic, but more its ensemble blends to help with the forecast. What you see for the official WPC forecast is mine, so that will be what I think. I'll share when its online. Makes good sense. 6z eps was a move west with features and a good h5 look. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Lol not much change for me Yep-and better for RVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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