2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[Terpeast]

Just now, yoda said:

Hello good sir

 

Oh!

[Solution Man]

Sheer porn

[SnowenOutThere]

3K plays nice but at midday the thermals are so bad everyone flips to rain minus the deathband of the Eastern shore and the mountains

[Interstate]

If we could get the low closer to the coast take over a little sooner... that would be the wow factor

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Yk, I almost wonder if the NAM run is better than a full phase. I think last night even the best GFS runs only were truly amazing for the 50 mile area where the moisture is thrown back as the low occludes. If we instead get a bit of a messier interaction that might allow for the moisture to be thrown further back as the low isn't cut off from the baroclinic boundary and vertically stacked. Might not have the crazy upside but would be more area wide. Just spitballing but wonder what your thoughts are on that. 

In a colder airmass sure, but with marginal/warmish sfc temps, we need the rates to overcome the BL and accumulate. A full phase is the best way to maximize fgen further west (over us) and cool that column enough to pile up even during the day. Otherwise the first half of the storm will struggle and only when the sun sets will we begin to accumulate. 

[Quasievil]

Honestly, we're always hunting for max amounts but I would gladly taking this NAM'd result all day long. Starts snowing around 6-7am, still unloading mid+late afternoon with more to come. Simply stunning.

[Interstate]

We need the SW to dig a little more to our southwest... then it would really be game on

[weathercoins]

Would be surprised if the WSW isn’t expanded south tonight 

[yoda]

Did someone order h5 tuck service?

 

[snowmagnet]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Oh!

I generally can only read pretty colorful maps, but isn't this the "bowling ball"? Is that the Inverted Trough? 

 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

In a colder airmass

That is my major concern for sure. Even out this way we are barely at freezing. 

[LP08]

3k really gets going in the evening…love that

[bncho]

[Quasievil]

Just now, yoda said:

Did someone order h5 tuck service?

 

That's a tucked thing of beauty.

[baltosquid]

Just like last run, feels like surface maybe even lagged the h5 improvement a bit! Feels like a low even closer to the coast than depicted could be justifiable based on that run.

[osfan24]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Just like last run, feels like surface maybe even lagged the h5 improvement a bit! Feels like a low even closer to the coast than depicted could be justifiable based on that run.

At some point, all these improvements need to start showing up at the surface or the HECS is east of the bay.

[midatlanticweather]

The surface is way warm. The Kuchera should be checked and the actual snow depth. I suspect way worse

 

[nw baltimore wx]

I like the temperature crash at sunset.  Roads will go to crap quickly.

[Paleocene]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

 

still a bit more to come for delmarva.

snow depth cuts totals in half

kuch maybe drops by 25-33%

[DDweatherman]

I honestly don’t even like it that much at the surface given how good the damn h5 is. I guess we just need to see the sw dig south a bit more. OR that clipper piece could phase in…

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

In a colder airmass sure, but with marginal/warmish sfc temps, we need the rates to overcome the BL and accumulate. A full phase is the best way to maximize fgen further west (over us) and cool that column enough to pile up even during the day. Otherwise the first half of the storm will struggle and only when the sun sets will we begin to accumulate. 

Yeah that makes sense. Then again, I'm looking at it from CHO's perspective where I need the precip shield more diffuse than you guys would in order to score with the coastal. 

[T. August]

Just now, midatlanticweather said:

The surface is way warm. The Kuchera should be checked and the actual snow depth. I suspect way worse

 

The NAMs are actually cold at the sfc. 33/34 at the onset dropping below freezing much of the area at the height.

[SnowenOutThere]

Wait a second. We're looking at HRRR runs. This storm is now well within two days.

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

The surface is way warm. The Kuchera should be checked and the actual snow depth. I suspect way worse

 

Snow Depth maps are flawed

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

The surface is way warm. The Kuchera should be checked and the actual snow depth. I suspect way worse

 

Cold air coming in the Temps will crash the fast after sunset.  

[Snowman.]

00z NAM kuchera is still 6-8” i’m taking that all day

[baltosquid]

NAM 3km is much closer to the 12km depiction this time. Glad that divergence was apparently just a blip at 18z.

[bncho]

Jaw dropping. holy shit 

[NVAwx]

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Snow Depth maps are flawed

Perhaps, but in these situations they should be part of the evaluation for the forecast. 

[clskinsfan]

If it was just another 50 miles west.....