Terpeast Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, yoda said: Hello good sir Oh! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Sheer porn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3K plays nice but at midday the thermals are so bad everyone flips to rain minus the deathband of the Eastern shore and the mountains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 If we could get the low closer to the coast take over a little sooner... that would be the wow factor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Yk, I almost wonder if the NAM run is better than a full phase. I think last night even the best GFS runs only were truly amazing for the 50 mile area where the moisture is thrown back as the low occludes. If we instead get a bit of a messier interaction that might allow for the moisture to be thrown further back as the low isn't cut off from the baroclinic boundary and vertically stacked. Might not have the crazy upside but would be more area wide. Just spitballing but wonder what your thoughts are on that. In a colder airmass sure, but with marginal/warmish sfc temps, we need the rates to overcome the BL and accumulate. A full phase is the best way to maximize fgen further west (over us) and cool that column enough to pile up even during the day. Otherwise the first half of the storm will struggle and only when the sun sets will we begin to accumulate. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Honestly, we're always hunting for max amounts but I would gladly taking this NAM'd result all day long. Starts snowing around 6-7am, still unloading mid+late afternoon with more to come. Simply stunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 We need the SW to dig a little more to our southwest... then it would really be game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Would be surprised if the WSW isn’t expanded south tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Did someone order h5 tuck service? 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Oh! I generally can only read pretty colorful maps, but isn't this the "bowling ball"? Is that the Inverted Trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: In a colder airmass That is my major concern for sure. Even out this way we are barely at freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3k really gets going in the evening…love that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, yoda said: Did someone order h5 tuck service? That's a tucked thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just like last run, feels like surface maybe even lagged the h5 improvement a bit! Feels like a low even closer to the coast than depicted could be justifiable based on that run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, baltosquid said: Just like last run, feels like surface maybe even lagged the h5 improvement a bit! Feels like a low even closer to the coast than depicted could be justifiable based on that run. At some point, all these improvements need to start showing up at the surface or the HECS is east of the bay. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 The surface is way warm. The Kuchera should be checked and the actual snow depth. I suspect way worse 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I like the temperature crash at sunset. Roads will go to crap quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, bncho said: still a bit more to come for delmarva. snow depth cuts totals in half kuch maybe drops by 25-33% 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I honestly don’t even like it that much at the surface given how good the damn h5 is. I guess we just need to see the sw dig south a bit more. OR that clipper piece could phase in… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: In a colder airmass sure, but with marginal/warmish sfc temps, we need the rates to overcome the BL and accumulate. A full phase is the best way to maximize fgen further west (over us) and cool that column enough to pile up even during the day. Otherwise the first half of the storm will struggle and only when the sun sets will we begin to accumulate. Yeah that makes sense. Then again, I'm looking at it from CHO's perspective where I need the precip shield more diffuse than you guys would in order to score with the coastal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, midatlanticweather said: The surface is way warm. The Kuchera should be checked and the actual snow depth. I suspect way worse The NAMs are actually cold at the sfc. 33/34 at the onset dropping below freezing much of the area at the height. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Wait a second. We're looking at HRRR runs. This storm is now well within two days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: The surface is way warm. The Kuchera should be checked and the actual snow depth. I suspect way worse Snow Depth maps are flawed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: The surface is way warm. The Kuchera should be checked and the actual snow depth. I suspect way worse Cold air coming in the Temps will crash the fast after sunset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 00z NAM kuchera is still 6-8” i’m taking that all day 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 NAM 3km is much closer to the 12km depiction this time. Glad that divergence was apparently just a blip at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Jaw dropping. holy shit 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NVAwx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: Snow Depth maps are flawed Perhaps, but in these situations they should be part of the evaluation for the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 If it was just another 50 miles west..... 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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