2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

H5 at 36 00z NAM... now we wait for like 10 minutes for the run to resume lol

 

WB has 39 

[LP08]

15z Sunday, 33° and pounding

[snowmagnet]

I was trying to figure out when we started discussing this, but here is a post from more than a week ago. On the GFS.. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Lovely 

This is what we need to accumulate during the day. Better rates. Weak sauce light precip won’t get us anywhere. 

[NVAwx]

What about the positive snow depth change outputs?

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, IronTy said:

WB has 39 

Are we phasing from northern Canada now?

[DDweatherman]

Just now, IronTy said:

WB has 39 

Oh my goodness that looks mint. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

H5 at 36 00z NAM... now we wait for like 10 minutes for the run to resume lol

 

Running on Pivotal.  39hrs

[katabatic]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Lovely 

It's like watching the development of a modern art masterpiece. 

[IronTy]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

Are we phasing from northern Canada now?

Where's Oprah?  "Everybody gets a phase!!"

[clskinsfan]

NAM'd

[SnowenOutThere]

Dunno if the NAM will manage to capture the coastal fully but regardless had some great changes at H5

[yoda]

Oh ok

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

There’s a lot more precip with the initial part, should be a big run incoming. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Dunno if the NAM will manage to capture the coastal fully but regardless had some great changes at H5

It’s about to smoke 

[LP08]

18z….awesome

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, yoda said:

Oh ok

 

I mean if this doesn’t capture, what will?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

@SnowenOutThere has like 8 inches by 1pm on the NAM 

[Interstate]

I have been on the this is going to happen train since Tuesday and have not wavered since.

[bncho]

oh dear

[NVAwx]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

@SnowenOutThere has like 8 inches by 1pm on the NAM 

Even 2" on the Snow Depth Positive Change.  

 

Impressive. 

[NorthArlington101]

Hard to call it anything other than a bomb

[LeesburgWx]

That’s it, get Randy in the damn plane back now

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

I mean if this doesn’t capture, what will?

Its close to a full clean phase. One noise level ass hair change away from a big time nuke

[bncho]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Its close to a full clean phase. One noise level ass hair change away from a big time nuke

that backside vort is super close, would be a BECS if that phased IMHO

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

oh dear

Good ol fashioned NAM’ing

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

@SnowenOutThere has like 8 inches by 1pm on the NAM 

Lmao its the only model that doesn't have Cvill get the down slopping snowhole from hell would love it to be right

[stormtracker]

[yoda]

Hello good sir

 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Its close to a full clean phase. One noise level ass hair change away from a big time nuke

Yk, I almost wonder if the NAM run is better than a full phase. I think last night even the best GFS runs only were truly amazing for the 50 mile area where the moisture is thrown back as the low occludes. If we instead get a bit of a messier interaction that might allow for the moisture to be thrown further back as the low isn't cut off from the baroclinic boundary and vertically stacked. Might not have the crazy upside but would be more area wide. Just spitballing but wonder what your thoughts are on that.