Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[Terpeast]

A good hold by the GEFS. I'd cut those snow amounts by 30% NW of 95 to account for thermals in the first half of the storm, and maybe even by half SE of the fall line unless they get crazy rates (which it looks like they might).

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Terpeast said:

A good hold by the GEFS. I'd cut those snow amounts by 30% to account for thermals in the first half of the storm.

That would still give me a foot ! I'll take it 

[LP08]

I’ve been here long enough to know…trigger warning..

[wasnow215]

15 minutes ago, WVsnowlover said:

Just minor differences between the clown map and snow depth maps on the 12z gfs...

Was just saying in the Richmond thread that the only thing that really matters is snow depth

[GreyHat]

4 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

I mean - Kuchera is lower than 10:1 on Pivotal. BWI's QPF is like 1.7", 10:1 is 17" and Kuchera is 13" so 7.6:1 avg

Thank you, I asked since some times Kuchera has higher totals.

[GreyHat]

6 minutes ago, Interstate said:

They do... It is the Kuchera ratio

Thank you

[DDweatherman]

Figures that our favorite member grey hat will probably get 2' in this storm... mother nature does some funny things. 

[EstorilM]

4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Figures that our favorite member grey hat will probably get 2' in this storm... mother nature does some funny things. 

Makes me miss Snobol lol

[WxUSAF]

Think this is the first time I’ve looked at the Ukie for this. And yes it made a big step to the GFS and yes it still looks like trash for anyone not standing on the beach lol

[DDweatherman]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Think this is the first time I’ve looked at the Ukie for this. And yes it made a big step to the GFS and yes it still looks like trash for anyone not standing on the beach lol

Can only hope the trends are a sign the gfs is the one with the central solution and hope the others keep going. The damn euro is starting to look like the odd man out...I'm sure it still will in an hour. 

[baltosquid]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Think this is the first time I’ve looked at the Ukie for this. And yes it made a big step to the GFS and yes it still looks like trash for anyone not standing on the beach lol

Hopefully it's too aggressive with temps. I recall it wasn't the greatest with the snowcrete storm? Also maybe another jump like that and the rates pull through.

[GreyHat]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Figures that our favorite member grey hat will probably get 2' in this storm... mother naturse does some funny things. 

As stated by Terpeast those totals would be cut.

My question is instability in the atmosphere. Can there be thunder?

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Hopefully it's too aggressive with temps. I recall it wasn't the greatest with the snowcrete storm? Also maybe another jump like that and the rates pull through.

The UKMET was on the front lines of showing the snowcrete storm as a full fledged HECS for everyone. So yes I’d take it with a grain of salt especially when it’s alone.

[Solution Man]

Just now, GreyHat said:

As stated by Terpeast those totals would be cut.

My question is instability in the atmosphere. Can there be thunder?

The potential scenario is very dynamic and nothing is out of the question with a ~975 bombing out.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

As stated by Terpeast those totals would be cut.

My question is instability in the atmosphere. Can there be thunder?

Dry thunder.

[caviman2201]

The delta beween the 'expected' and 10% on the LWX Snow and Ice forecast page is maybe the highest I've ever seen this close to an event. Crazy levels of uncertainty here

[MDsnowPRO]

17 minutes ago, Interstate said:

They do... It is the Kuchera ratio

Glad someone said it.

[DDweatherman]

What I'd like to see is the base of the h5 a bit more south these next few runs this aftn and evening. That and we'd like to see things sharper unless the whole orientation is going to slow down a bit and allow what we need despite a broader trough. 

[Jake Wx]

[Nomz]

Half hour to euro yall… breathe

[LordBaltimore]

If we can be sure of anything it's that accumulation on road-side snow piles will be amazing

[Heisy]

Starting to think someone in S NJ will see 10-20”, I also think there will be a sharp cutoff with a deepening low like this. Had a gun to my head for Philly I’d say 4-8”

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Starting to think someone in S NJ will see 10-20”, I also think there will be a sharp cutoff with a deepening low like this. Had a gun to my head for Philly I’d say 4-8”

Coastal NJ, LI, up to eastern Mass gonna get wrecked

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Coastal NJ, LI, up to eastern Mass gonna get wrecked

No coastal DE?

 

w'ell sacrifice blueFedora...

[Eskimo Joe]

This has al the markings of an event where there's 2" - 4" of snow on the roads, but 10" on the power lines and trees.

[GreyHat]

14 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

The potential scenario is very dynamic and nothing is out of the question with a ~975 bombing out.

Thanks fo answering. While others think it's funny when I do ask a decent question. 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This has al the markings of an event where there's 2" - 4" of snow on the roads, but 10" on the power lines and trees.

I’d gladly take that, it’s one of the best kind of snows.

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

No coastal DE?

 

w'ell sacrifice blueFedora...

I think you’ll do very well, but I think highest totals are north of our sub

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think you’ll do very well, but I think highest totals are north of our sub

This finding it's way into being a canonical Nina blizzard makes sense. Long as it's something we can cash in a litttle bit as opposed to the storms we can't name

[WVclimo]

8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I’d gladly take that, it’s one of the best kind of snows.

33° snow makes the landscape so much prettier than 15° sleet