Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[EstorilM]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

    Storms 2 days away.. I wonder how long LWX waits to issue watches. I'm thinking maybe after the 12z model runs runs

Based on their latest disco, I think they'll wait till the very last second for this one. Way too many stars need to align for this thing to be "dangerous" IMO. 

Sterling / LWX quote snippet sums up this whole mess perfectly:
 

Quote

After reviewing the 00z model guidance suite, some subtle
consistency has been noted although subtle uncertainty remains.

[mitchnick]

Hello

[stormtracker]

NAM looks pretty good so far. If it climbs and tucks. Man 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

11 minutes ago, LP08 said:

At 42. Trough not quite as sharp as 6z. Coastal might climb a bit before capture?

Bah, yeah it doesn't sharpen up quite like 6z.  But even though the trough looks more progressive it still looks good at the surface.  Hour 57 looks nice. 

[Scraff]

Incoming NAMing!?

[stormtracker]

It’s a pretty decent hit. Not sure how much the heavies get i 

[bncho]

12 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Yeah heights higher out front but broader trough. Not sure how it will respond

Not necessarily a bad thing, could occlude less fast

[rjvanals]

Its got a 993L in a PERFECT spot for us but not sure if the heaviest precip makes it to the i95 corridor 

[mitchnick]

Trough negative at 60hrs

[Solution Man]

Money panels coming 

[NorthArlington101]

It's not gonna be nuts but a solid warning criteria storm for most of us

[TSSN+]

Better than 6z 

[yoda]

Solid warning storm.  Not GFS type amounts... but still nice

[TSSN+]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

It's not gonna be nuts but a solid warning criteria storm for most of us

Looks pretty dang good to me 

 

[RDM]

47 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

Upvote 1000 times please. There are plenty of better things to do than piss in other people's cheerios because your yard lost 10 inches of digital snow. Nobody wants to read it and nobody cares. 

I've been on this forum and previously Eastern for almost 20 years and my post count is less than 1000. I've posted more in recent years, but I do believe many people should post less. 

Totally agree and well said.  Not to be uppity, but I've been here and Eastern since 97.  None of us ever learned anything when posting.  I'm immensely grateful for all the insight from the red taggers and those more experienced posters who really know what's going on.  Many of the younger crew are catching on, but still need to post less, read more, learn and avoid jumping the gun.  Unfortunately, that's the era we live in with today's immersive social media frenzy.  

Mods - sorry for the banter.  

[GaWx]

Teleconnections have been steady for Feb 22-23 with MJO phase 3 (coldest Feb phase for La Niña on avg), strong -EPO/-WPO/-PNA/+NAO, and near neutral AO.

[baltosquid]

You know, the trailing piece that might kick/might help climb/might phase had this look to it on the NAM that made me want to check the analogs. While it doesn’t show up for the northeast with the 00z NAM, January 2000 DOES show up in the Mississippi valley analogs. I wonder if we get that in top analogs here too for this sort of look on the 12z NAM.

[mitchnick]

Nice pivot on that precip shield

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Looks pretty dang good to me 

 

I'd rather be in the Virginia' delmarva but not gonna kick a 6-8" NAM run out of bed

[LP08]

Gotta think that some sort of mid level band would be further west than the main fronto one along the Delmarva. Happens almost every time with a coastal

[rjvanals]

It's a very good run if you keep expectations in check and realize the GFS is having ChatGPT like hallucinations for snow totals 

[NorthArlington101]

3k shows the DC disaster gap but it would've filled in a bit on later panels

[stormtracker]

I’m going to be sick. 

[yoda]

Fwiw. 10:1 12z NAM 

 

[ravensrule]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I’m going to be sick. 

Cancel that flight. DO IT. 

[baltosquid]

2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

You know, the trailing piece that might kick/might help climb/might phase had this look to it on the NAM that made me want to check the analogs. While it doesn’t show up for the northeast with the 00z NAM, January 2000 DOES show up in the Mississippi valley analogs. I wonder if we get that in top analogs here too for this sort of look on the 12z NAM.

Actually pardon me. It was in the GFS analogs for the MS valley. But there’s a look there still. Will check later today again.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I’m going to be sick. 

1/3/22 was the last GFS coup. I was in Puerto Rico. Thought it couldn't be right for days, that it would cave. Then...

[SnowGolfBro]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I’m going to be sick. 

You really shouldn’t get on an airplane. Out of a courtesy for others of course

[Thewiledcard]

Just now, yoda said:

Fwiw. 10:1 12z NAM 

 

OCMD trip anyone?

[rjvanals]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

3k shows the DC disaster gap but it would've filled in a bit on later panels

It was more temp related than anything just a bunch of white rain