EstorilM Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Storms 2 days away.. I wonder how long LWX waits to issue watches. I'm thinking maybe after the 12z model runs runs Based on their latest disco, I think they'll wait till the very last second for this one. Way too many stars need to align for this thing to be "dangerous" IMO. Sterling / LWX quote snippet sums up this whole mess perfectly: Quote After reviewing the 00z model guidance suite, some subtle consistency has been noted although subtle uncertainty remains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Hello 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 NAM looks pretty good so far. If it climbs and tucks. Man 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 11 minutes ago, LP08 said: At 42. Trough not quite as sharp as 6z. Coastal might climb a bit before capture? Bah, yeah it doesn't sharpen up quite like 6z. But even though the trough looks more progressive it still looks good at the surface. Hour 57 looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Incoming NAMing!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 It’s a pretty decent hit. Not sure how much the heavies get i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 12 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Yeah heights higher out front but broader trough. Not sure how it will respond Not necessarily a bad thing, could occlude less fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Its got a 993L in a PERFECT spot for us but not sure if the heaviest precip makes it to the i95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Trough negative at 60hrs 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Money panels coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 It's not gonna be nuts but a solid warning criteria storm for most of us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Better than 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Solid warning storm. Not GFS type amounts... but still nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: It's not gonna be nuts but a solid warning criteria storm for most of us Looks pretty dang good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 47 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: Upvote 1000 times please. There are plenty of better things to do than piss in other people's cheerios because your yard lost 10 inches of digital snow. Nobody wants to read it and nobody cares. I've been on this forum and previously Eastern for almost 20 years and my post count is less than 1000. I've posted more in recent years, but I do believe many people should post less. Totally agree and well said. Not to be uppity, but I've been here and Eastern since 97. None of us ever learned anything when posting. I'm immensely grateful for all the insight from the red taggers and those more experienced posters who really know what's going on. Many of the younger crew are catching on, but still need to post less, read more, learn and avoid jumping the gun. Unfortunately, that's the era we live in with today's immersive social media frenzy. Mods - sorry for the banter. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Teleconnections have been steady for Feb 22-23 with MJO phase 3 (coldest Feb phase for La Niña on avg), strong -EPO/-WPO/-PNA/+NAO, and near neutral AO. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 You know, the trailing piece that might kick/might help climb/might phase had this look to it on the NAM that made me want to check the analogs. While it doesn’t show up for the northeast with the 00z NAM, January 2000 DOES show up in the Mississippi valley analogs. I wonder if we get that in top analogs here too for this sort of look on the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Nice pivot on that precip shield 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Looks pretty dang good to me I'd rather be in the Virginia' delmarva but not gonna kick a 6-8" NAM run out of bed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Gotta think that some sort of mid level band would be further west than the main fronto one along the Delmarva. Happens almost every time with a coastal 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 It's a very good run if you keep expectations in check and realize the GFS is having ChatGPT like hallucinations for snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3k shows the DC disaster gap but it would've filled in a bit on later panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I’m going to be sick. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Fwiw. 10:1 12z NAM 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, stormtracker said: I’m going to be sick. Cancel that flight. DO IT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, baltosquid said: You know, the trailing piece that might kick/might help climb/might phase had this look to it on the NAM that made me want to check the analogs. While it doesn’t show up for the northeast with the 00z NAM, January 2000 DOES show up in the Mississippi valley analogs. I wonder if we get that in top analogs here too for this sort of look on the 12z NAM. Actually pardon me. It was in the GFS analogs for the MS valley. But there’s a look there still. Will check later today again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, stormtracker said: I’m going to be sick. 1/3/22 was the last GFS coup. I was in Puerto Rico. Thought it couldn't be right for days, that it would cave. Then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, stormtracker said: I’m going to be sick. You really shouldn’t get on an airplane. Out of a courtesy for others of course 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thewiledcard Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, yoda said: Fwiw. 10:1 12z NAM OCMD trip anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: 3k shows the DC disaster gap but it would've filled in a bit on later panels It was more temp related than anything just a bunch of white rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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