bncho Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 9 minutes ago, jconsor said: This article speaks more about skill of AI models in medium range (beyond day 5), but I believe same applies in the 3-4 day range - AIFS ensemble has superior skill to EPS and other physics-based ensembles. AI-GEFS has superior skill to GEFS but isn't as skillful as AIFS ensemble. https://x.com/Brady_Wx/status/2021333729088585882 Given that GEFS and GEPS are closer than the EPS to AIFS ensemble (as well as AI-GEFS) in terms of more amplified trough initially over Ohio Valley/Great Lakes with more downstream ridging, and deeper upper low closer to the mid-Atlantic coast, I would weight them more than EPS in this setup. All models shifted in that direction (when compared to yesterday's 0z run) after ingesting a new batch of upper air data from recon. It appears to me that the EPS under-amplification bias may be at play here and it is most likely playing catch-up here, like the AI summary that Sacrus posted intimated happens sometimes in NE US winter storms. good read above ^^^ 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Man I don't think I've ever seen a temperature advection show something like this. Beautiful depiction of how low pressure impacts the area around them. I mean its amazing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 @paulythegun posted it but the gfs soundings are insane. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 I need a met to explain how the CMC and GFS look so similar at 500mb 90 hours but have such vastly different surface outcomes. All the people saying "small changes" are right I think. The position and orientation of the trough at 500 mb are almost the same. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 So we've got.. The GFS, the AI GFS, and the Rufus? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 lol thats Knickerbocker territory 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, WxUSAF said: @paulythegun posted it but the gfs soundings are insane. What would the surface conditions even look like? Just dumping dendrites akin to lake effect snowfall? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 6 minutes ago, weathercoins said: GFS got confused and decided “DC snow hole” meant “DC gets destroyed with snow” Snow too heavy, ground gives way. The DC snow hole. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, bncho said: good read above ^^^ He knows his stuff, that is very encouraging. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, AlexD1990 said: lol thats Knickerbocker territory LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Thread the needle baby! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Look, all I know if, if I get two feet just north of Baltimore and DC gets 3 feet, I'm gonna be SO MAD. I might never get over it. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: What would the surface conditions even look like? Just dumping dendrites akin to lake effect snowfall? Yeah that 0z Monday sounding would be like near whiteout with high ratio parachutes. Crazy stuff. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 If the gfs was even close to being right I’d drive down to where they house it super computer and bow to its greatness. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 11 minutes ago, weathercoins said: GFS got confused and decided “DC snow hole” meant “DC gets destroyed with snow” Law of averages is going to pay off in a single event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 I'm calling my Representative to lobby the introduction of the "Retire the GFS Bill" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, TSSN+ said: super commuter If they’re running it out of a MARC train, that would explain some things 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 I honestly think the GooFuS is using old CRAS algorithms. LOL. I’ve literally never seen anything like this before. Rug pulls last minute for sure, but being this wrong 3 days before!? This is some serious next-level shit. OK. Time to get to work. I’ll be back to watch the Euro destroy dreams. PS—Anyone in the Takoma Park area tonight, I’ll be at the TP Beverage Co slinging Guilford samples. If you come up to me, the secret code for free beers for 2 hours is “GooFuS Sucks”. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 45 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Because it is Good early call right here -mad props! Sorry @bncho you too! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 As expected, the UKMET looks less amped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Scraff said: I honestly think the GooFuS is using old CRAS algorithms. LOL. I’ve literally never seen anything like this before. Rug pulls last minute for sure, but being this wrong 3 days before!? This is some serious next-level shit. OK. Time to get to work. I’ll be back to watch the Euro destroy dreams. PS—Anyone in the Takoma Park area tonight, I’ll be at the TP Beverage Co slinging Guilford samples. If you come up to me, the secret code for free beers for 2 hours is “GooFuS Sucks”. You rang . I'll be in downtown TP tonight because my kids have music lessons there, maybe I'll stop by! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 27 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Sigh Jesus effin Christ!!! It's a beaut Clark!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Final: Pass 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, winter_warlock said: Jesus effin Christ!!! It's a beaut Clark!!! I honestly do not recall where the District itself was ground zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Dear Euro, Lately, you have not been there for us. When we needed you most, you abandoned us, never providing in our time of need. All we've had is the GFS, which is a blasphemous model. But you can change that today, our precious King. We've never needed you more than now. All you need to do is provide a helping hand, a little hope for this weekend. All that is needed is a 75 mile shift west, and we will praise and rejoice you. We hope you hear our prayers. - The Mid-Atlantic Forum 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, baltosquid said: As expected, the UKMET looks less amped More amped than 0z at the very least? But yeah, closer to a Bermuda Brawler than the GFS solution 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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