Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[bncho]

9 minutes ago, jconsor said:

This article speaks more about skill of AI models in medium range (beyond day 5), but I believe same applies in the 3-4 day range - AIFS ensemble has superior skill to EPS and other physics-based ensembles.  AI-GEFS has superior skill to GEFS but isn't as skillful as AIFS ensemble.

https://x.com/Brady_Wx/status/2021333729088585882

Given that GEFS and GEPS are closer than the EPS to AIFS ensemble (as well as AI-GEFS) in terms of more amplified trough initially over Ohio Valley/Great Lakes with more downstream ridging, and deeper upper low closer to the mid-Atlantic coast, I would weight them more than EPS in this setup. All models shifted in that direction (when compared to yesterday's 0z run) after ingesting a new batch of upper air data from recon.

It appears to me that the EPS under-amplification bias may be at play here and it is most likely playing catch-up here, like the AI summary that Sacrus posted intimated happens sometimes in NE US winter storms.

good read above ^^^

[SnowenOutThere]

Man I don't think I've ever seen a temperature advection show something like this. Beautiful depiction of how low pressure impacts the area around them. I mean its amazing.

[midatlanticweather]

[mattie g]

[WxUSAF]

@paulythegun posted it but the gfs soundings are insane. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I need a met to explain how the CMC and GFS look so similar at 500mb 90 hours but have such vastly different surface outcomes.  All the people saying "small changes" are right I think.  The position and orientation of the trough at 500 mb are almost the same. 

[Cobalt]

So we've got.. The GFS, the AI GFS, and the Rufus? 

[AlexD1990]

lol thats Knickerbocker territory

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

@paulythegun posted it but the gfs soundings are insane. 

What would the surface conditions even look like? Just dumping dendrites akin to lake effect snowfall?

[baltosquid]

6 minutes ago, weathercoins said:

GFS got confused and decided “DC snow hole” meant “DC gets destroyed with snow”

Snow too heavy, ground gives way. The DC snow hole.

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

good read above ^^^

He knows his stuff, that is very encouraging.

[Climate175]

1 minute ago, AlexD1990 said:

lol thats Knickerbocker territory

LOL. 

[Paleocene]

[Nomz]

Thread the needle baby!

[TowsonWeather]

Look, all I know if, if I get two feet just north of Baltimore and DC gets 3 feet, I'm gonna be SO MAD.

I might never get over it.

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What would the surface conditions even look like? Just dumping dendrites akin to lake effect snowfall?

Yeah that 0z Monday sounding would be like near whiteout with high ratio parachutes. Crazy stuff. 

[TSSN+]

If the gfs was even close to being right I’d drive down to where they house it super computer and bow to its greatness.

 

[peribonca]

11 minutes ago, weathercoins said:

GFS got confused and decided “DC snow hole” meant “DC gets destroyed with snow”

Law of averages is going to pay off in a single event

[LeesburgWx]

I'm calling my Representative to lobby the introduction of the "Retire the GFS Bill"

[baltosquid]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

super commuter

If they’re running it out of a MARC train, that would explain some things

[Scraff]

I honestly think the GooFuS is using old CRAS algorithms. LOL. I’ve literally never seen anything like this before. Rug pulls last minute for sure, but being this wrong 3 days before!? This is some serious next-level shit. OK. Time to get to work. I’ll be back to watch the Euro destroy dreams. 

PS—Anyone in the Takoma Park area tonight, I’ll be at the TP Beverage Co slinging Guilford samples. If you come up to me, the secret code for free beers for 2 hours is “GooFuS Sucks”.

[wasnow215]

45 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Because it is

Good early call right here -mad props!

 

Sorry @bncho you too!

[baltosquid]

As expected, the UKMET looks less amped

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Scraff said:

I honestly think the GooFuS is using old CRAS algorithms. LOL. I’ve literally never seen anything like this before. Rug pulls last minute for sure, but being this wrong 3 days before!? This is some serious next-level shit. OK. Time to get to work. I’ll be back to watch the Euro destroy dreams. 

PS—Anyone in the Takoma Park area tonight, I’ll be at the TP Beverage Co slinging Guilford samples. If you come up to me, the secret code for free beers for 2 hours is “GooFuS Sucks”.

You rang .

I'll be in downtown TP tonight because my kids have music lessons there, maybe I'll stop by! 

[winter_warlock]

27 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Sigh 

Jesus effin Christ!!!  It's a beaut Clark!!!

[aldie 22]

25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Final:

Pass

[AlexD1990]

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Jesus effin Christ!!!  It's a beaut Clark!!!

I honestly do not recall where the District itself was ground zero. 

[bncho]

Dear Euro,

Lately, you have not been there for us. When we needed you most, you abandoned us, never providing in our time of need. All we've had is the GFS, which is a blasphemous model. But you can change that today, our precious King. We've never needed you more than now. All you need to do is provide a helping hand, a little hope for this weekend. All that is needed is a 75 mile shift west, and we will praise and rejoice you.

We hope you hear our prayers.

- The Mid-Atlantic Forum

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

As expected, the UKMET looks less amped

More amped than 0z at the very least? But yeah, closer to a Bermuda Brawler than the GFS solution