“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, IDK,,,living on the ocean with an 81mb PG

lol - was genuinely curious if it was about wind, snow amounts, or possible mixing

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

They will both tick to each other, to some degree, is what I’m thinking. 

Yes, But the question will be when?

[WxWatcher007]

No matter the model, this has some explosive potential. Whew boy it could get breezy.  

925mb

 

[mahk_webstah]

I think we max the nw trends at 0z-6z then stabilize then an east tick at go time.

[JJBASHB]

Boxing Day had the deformation band well west of QPF depiction IIRC and it led to some prolific snow amounts due to ratios.  I know this sort of gets thrown out as a bone when people worry about QPF output.  But it seems like deform bands are a little harder to predict?  CCBs tend to show too broad of a gradient then sharpen as we get closer but placement is fairly consistent relative to the surface track.  Is this amateur analysis too far off?  What would one look for to predict placement and potential amounts well west of the QPF depiction?

[SouthCoastMA]

CMC looks kinda like the 6z euro except more progressive, lacking the tug

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

All hail the king:

yesterdays 12z to todays…

[MuddyWx]

yup GEFS looking a hair west...

[The 4 Seasons]

Lot of big dogs showing up on CIPS analogs as you would expect on the NAM 12Z.  2013, 2015, 2022, 2018 etc..

GFS isnt out yet but the 00Z run had a lot of other big ones like 2001, 2006, 2010

[40/70 Benchmark]

12z looks to me like it would place a death band west of Juno.

[ineedsnow]

GEFS slightly west of 6z

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

12z looks to me like it would place a death band right where Juno did.

Yay

[MuddyWx]

what a beast

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yay

I corrected that.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

All hail the king:

yesterdays 12z to todays…

I silently follow the JMA its not as bad as some say. Got a bad rep but isn't any worse than the other JV models.

[dendrite]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

I think we max the nw trends at 0z-6z then stabilize then an east tick at go time.

The more progressive and booted northward we can get this the better. H5 really isn’t wrapping fully up until it’s near the BM now. I want PVA slamming into MVY.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I corrected that.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I silently follow the JMA its not as bad as some say. Got a bad rep but isn't any worse than the other JV models.

It was the first to have a blizzard yesterday.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I silently follow the JMA its not as bad as some say. Got a bad rep but isn't any worse than the other JV models.

Me too lol. It’s been pretty damn consistent all week going back to it’s 12z tuesday run. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was the first to have a blizzard yesterday.

20 year anniversary of its last coup, Feb 06

[codfishsnowman]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we get a deep layer easterly fetch, that will happen....and east slopes of ORH will rival se MA for JP...especially with CJ capability reduced given decreased SST/land lapse.

Pray for deformation, even a glancing blow from it. Might be all we have.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was the first to have a blizzard yesterday.

It had it Tuesday at 12z actually but no one noticed.

[moneypitmike]

Great time to be on the south coast.

itll be tough getting the latitude necessary for more than a scrape here at pit2.

[Cyclone-68]

13 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

About? 

Snow and wind but particularly losing power which to be fair always sucks 

[dryslot]

Looking at H7 on the 12z GFS it looks like it would get precip back pretty far west of the low at the surface.

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie way NW and finally a hit. 20 burger for PYM area. Prob close to a foot for BOS-PVD....rest of us are in the 6-10" range except far western MA. 

[CCHurricane]

23 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Feels like we’re maxing west trends currently. I’d fully expect a jog east.

i think the Jan 22 references are legit. This obviously isn’t as potent of a system. However, that slowly faded SE over the last couple days.

It was obviously an all time event here because we got in the deformation band, but that was originally modeled way west.

23 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is following, quite literally, the same progression we’ve seen from all these systems this year. 
 

some mid range waffling, but ultimately, there was never real support. Just enough to waste everyone’s time for 3-4 days, before it finally slowly vanishes under 100 hours 

23 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It has no support. It’s wrong. We all know it’s wrong.

I get the mental gymnastics of always expecting the worst, so you can never be disappointed, but isn’t this absolutely exhausting?

Even when you do very well there’s always a “could have been better”.

Just sit back and enjoy the ride!

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie way NW and finally a hit. 20 burger for PYM area. Prob close to a foot for BOS-PVD....rest of us are in the 6-10" range except far western MA. 

Might be in business now...pending Euro...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yes, But the question will be when?

We just dont know…

[codfishsnowman]

I hope Zeus checks in on you guys.