MegaMike Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Thank you! No problem, my dewd'! At the moment, I agree that more weight should be placed on real-time analysis/mesos. I don't think global models will do well with this latent heat bomb this close to an event without being able to spin up for 12-24 hours (I know most models are initialized hot and it shouldn't matter too much)... Regardless, I wouldn't completely ignore their trends either. My weights (as Dendrite said, our opinions vary): 60% mesos. 20% regionals 10% globals 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, Masswx said: What’s everyone’s prediction for me ? Which father you be spending the storm with? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: I can’t imagine any NWS office out here issuing a Blizz Warning for under a foot though. 90% of the public doesn’t know the definition of it no matter how many times you tell them. You don't think so? Interesting. Maybe I'm thinking more like western NY or something out of BUF. I feel like we've seen them for 6-12" and high wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I feel so left out here in Litchfield County (j/k). The way I'm looking at it, if the wind performs close to what is predicted, +/- a couple of inches of snow will be immaterial. I'm on top of a hill where the wind screams so measuring the snow will be a guess at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 We need to photoshop Scott, Brett, and Bryce into this. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: The way they chew on their mouth guards constantly is annoying. I can't unsee it. Thank Steph for that 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: We need to photoshop Scott, Brett, and Bryce into this. He’s gone wild. Will straighten him out later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: You don't think so? Interesting. Maybe I'm thinking more like western NY or something out of BUF. I feel like we've seen them for 6-12" and high wind. I’d have to dig into the warning archives but B warnings are few and far between here to begin with and I can’t recall GYX issuing one in an event under a foot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I'd love a real-time mesoscale ensemble (updates every hour with ~10 members on one, unison domain)... It's a shame the RRFS isn't performing well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Watch Ray get 14" Scott gets 23" Steve gets 28" and Paul and Kevin are in the jack. We'd never hear the end of it! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 9 minutes ago, Masswx said: What’s everyone’s prediction for me ? A cranky dad? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masswx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Whatever the wheel lands on https://spinthewheel.app/uTL0HqhJgy 6z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 hours ago, jbenedet said: Says the guy who eats squirrels and also is dumb enough to tell everyone that he does Obviously a city boy who has eaten processed food his entire life. Enjoy your early demise. You have no clue how good it really is. Back to the Blizzard mesos look crazy good here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’d have to dig into the warning archives but B warnings are few and far between here to begin with and I can’t recall GYX issuing one in an event under a foot. Yeah I can’t pinpoint an event but feel like I’ve seen either BTV, BGM or BUF do it… St Lawrence Valley down into western NY/Lakes region or something like that. But yeah can’t remember it further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 7 minutes ago, Connecticut Appleman said: I feel so left out here in Litchfield County (j/k). The way I'm looking at it, if the wind performs close to what is predicted, +/- a couple of inches of snow will be immaterial. I'm on top of a hill where the wind screams so measuring the snow will be a guess at best. yup, I have a feeling they may join Box and Upton and upgrade, just so the whole state is covered, can't imagine eastern Litchfield cty doesn't at least experience blizzard conditions, latest AFD even mentioned it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 13 minutes ago, Masswx said: What’s everyone’s prediction for me ? 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 LOL, JMA refuses ... 5 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Obviously a city boy who has eaten processed food his entire life. Enjoy your early demise. You have no clue how good it really is. Back to the Blizzard mesos look crazy good here. How are we looking? Thinking your elevation is going to help you vs me down in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: LOL, JMA refuses ... Been pretty dammed steadfast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masswx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 20 First real prediction i got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 GFS makes me feel like a Canadian hockey player. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: LOL, JMA refuses ... Eastern areas would be shut down from snow and power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Uncle looks just fine. Hopefully only coffee before initialization 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, Masswx said: First real prediction i got Your area could be anywhere from 15”- 25” You and Pops are gonna spend a lot of time watching and debating radar returns. All about the banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Gfs overdoes the shuffle in most coastals as mentioned yesterday 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 11 minutes ago, MegaMike said: I'd love a real-time mesoscale ensemble (updates every hour with ~10 members on one, unison domain)... It's a shame the RRFS isn't performing well. This would be nice, even if it was only 12 hour forecast! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Uncle looks just fine. Hopefully only coffee before initialization it's the cool one, not the creepy one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 38 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: That gfs run verifying would be objectively hilarious. Not even warning amounts past Boston. And a foot contained to the cape That's how it will play out. Always go with the model that show's the least amount of snow, as it's usually correct, based on past history. Especially a global. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: LOL, JMA refuses ... "I would have followed you, my brother... My captain... My king" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Uncle looks just fine. Hopefully only coffee before initialization Yeah the more I look at this ... the GFS is at minimum questionable. The upside (also) is that QPF may be underdone up under the NW quadrant of the 700 to 500 mb cyclonic arc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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