“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[MegaMike]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Thank you!

 

No problem, my dewd'! 

At the moment, I agree that more weight should be placed on real-time analysis/mesos. I don't think global models will do well with this latent heat bomb this close to an event without being able to spin up for 12-24 hours (I know most models are initialized hot and it shouldn't matter too much)... Regardless, I wouldn't completely ignore their trends either.

My weights (as Dendrite said, our opinions vary):

60% mesos.

20% regionals

10% globals

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, Masswx said:

What’s everyone’s prediction for me ?

Which father you be spending the storm with?

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I can’t imagine any NWS office out here issuing a Blizz Warning for under a foot though. 90% of the public doesn’t know the definition of it no matter how many times you tell them. 

You don't think so?  Interesting.  Maybe I'm thinking more like western NY or something out of BUF.  I feel like we've seen them for 6-12" and high wind.

[Connecticut Appleman]

I feel so left out here in Litchfield County (j/k).

The way I'm looking at it, if the wind performs close to what is predicted, +/- a couple of inches of snow will be immaterial.  I'm on top of a hill where the wind screams so measuring the snow will be a guess at best.

[dendrite]

We need to photoshop Scott, Brett, and Bryce into this. 

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

The way they chew on their mouth guards constantly is annoying. I can't unsee it. 

Thank Steph for that

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We need to photoshop Scott, Brett, and Bryce into this. 

He’s gone wild. Will straighten him out later.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You don't think so?  Interesting.  Maybe I'm thinking more like western NY or something out of BUF.  I feel like we've seen them for 6-12" and high wind.

I’d have to dig into the warning archives but B warnings are few and far between here to begin with and I can’t recall GYX issuing one in an event under a foot. 

[MegaMike]

I'd love a real-time mesoscale ensemble (updates every hour with ~10 members on one, unison domain)...

It's a shame the RRFS isn't performing well.

[ROOSTA]

Watch Ray get 14" Scott gets 23" Steve gets 28" and Paul and Kevin are in the jack.

We'd never hear the end of it! LOL

[HIPPYVALLEY]

9 minutes ago, Masswx said:

What’s everyone’s prediction for me ?

A cranky dad?

[Masswx]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Whatever the wheel lands on

https://spinthewheel.app/uTL0HqhJgy

6z euro

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Says the guy who eats squirrels and also is dumb enough to tell everyone that he does

Obviously a city boy who has eaten processed food his entire life. Enjoy your early demise. You have no clue how good it really is.

Back to the Blizzard mesos look crazy good here. 

 

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’d have to dig into the warning archives but B warnings are few and far between here to begin with and I can’t recall GYX issuing one in an event under a foot. 

Yeah I can’t pinpoint an event but feel like I’ve seen either BTV, BGM or BUF do it… St Lawrence Valley down into western NY/Lakes region or something like that.

But yeah can’t remember it further east. 

[tavwtby]

7 minutes ago, Connecticut Appleman said:

I feel so left out here in Litchfield County (j/k).

The way I'm looking at it, if the wind performs close to what is predicted, +/- a couple of inches of snow will be immaterial.  I'm on top of a hill where the wind screams so measuring the snow will be a guess at best.

yup, I have a feeling they may join Box and Upton and upgrade, just so the whole state is covered, can't imagine eastern Litchfield cty doesn't at least experience blizzard conditions, latest AFD even mentioned it 

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, Masswx said:

What’s everyone’s prediction for me ?

20

[Typhoon Tip]

LOL, 

JMA refuses ...

[Modfan2]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Obviously a city boy who has eaten processed food his entire life. Enjoy your early demise. You have no clue how good it really is.

Back to the Blizzard mesos look crazy good here. 

 

How are we looking? Thinking your elevation is going to help you vs me down in the valley. 

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

LOL, 

JMA refuses ...

Been pretty dammed steadfast.

[Masswx]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

20

First real prediction i got

[Go Kart Mozart]

GFS makes me feel like a Canadian hockey player.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

LOL, 

JMA refuses ...

Eastern areas would be shut down from snow and power outages.

[weathafella]

Uncle looks just fine.  Hopefully only coffee before initialization 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, Masswx said:

First real prediction i got

Your area could be anywhere from 15”- 25”

You and Pops are gonna spend a lot of time watching and debating radar returns.  All about the banding.

[weathafella]

Gfs overdoes the shuffle in most coastals as mentioned yesterday 

[bristolri_wx]

11 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

I'd love a real-time mesoscale ensemble (updates every hour with ~10 members on one, unison domain)...

It's a shame the RRFS isn't performing well.

This would be nice, even if it was only 12 hour forecast!

[MuddyWx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Uncle looks just fine.  Hopefully only coffee before initialization 

it's the cool one, not the creepy one

[NoCORH4L]

38 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That gfs run verifying would be objectively hilarious. Not even warning amounts past Boston. And a foot contained to the cape 

That's how it will play out. Always go with the model that show's the least amount of snow, as it's usually correct, based on past history. Especially a global.

[CCHurricane]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

LOL, 

JMA refuses ...

"I would have followed you, my brother... My captain... My king"

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Uncle looks just fine.  Hopefully only coffee before initialization 

Yeah the more I look at this ... the GFS is at minimum questionable.    

The upside (also) is that QPF may be underdone up under the NW quadrant of the 700 to 500 mb cyclonic arc