“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr is nuts but extended hrrr

It's absolutely insane holy shit 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

F’ng snowicane stalled south of Long Island! LFG !

Will be some ginxy satellite porn

[weatherwiz]

Even though its the extended HRRR it has to be encouraging to see this right lol. It's in line with other guidance so that has to offer some increased confidence in the HRRR

[mattm4242]

[Henry's Weather]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Bun me if you must ... but this is a little frustrating seeing these runs get cute with their position fixes in that 48 to 70 hour window overnight.   

This look above, is theoretically more supported than any other guidance I've seen, including the GFS, since 3 days ago frankly. 

It doesn't mean that the low has to come within 40 MI S of Block Island like that ... for the record.  However, there's a leitmotif along this thing's modeling history has lacked commitment to where this thing should be, relative to a few different synoptic arguments, wave signature(s) and mass conservation and stuff.    

I've said multiple times over the years that this pursuit is a game of managing nested anomalies.   We have a -PNA, which principle, is an anomaly; inside which we have a positive relative PNA burst, also an anomaly relative to the former.   Inside which hosts this anomalous event, inside of which ... the idiosyncrasies of track and storm morphology dictates a pedestrian showing N-W of roughly HFD-BOS ... while limiting the ferocity SE of that line.  The inner most nested anomaly has the surface preferential to a SE position within 'the cone' - so to speak. 

It's annoying.   Be that as it may ... 

But - as an example - if we look at 42 hour surface featuring of the 06z Euro operational, there is low position ~ 75 to 100 MI E of the Va Capes.  At that time the best quasi-geostrophic forcing is not there.  It's WNW around the Ches. Bay side of the Del Marva stinger.   But this is like teeing off in Golf (metaphor), where you swore you swung a great stroke but you hit the ball 1 deg off the sweet spot and that tiny error ends up being an unsavory fairway fringe lie by the time the ball gets 300 yds down stream.     Just a knee jerk guess ... the models are ending up mid way between the best deep layer forcing, and what may be irresistible ...ultimately real mad mad convective instability out there.    

Any insight into 500 mb heights over Miami? Forgetting your rule of thumb

[SouthCoastMA]

Ain't happening James

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Ain't happening James

Rain in Sandwich?

[cleetussnow]

 

Boys its Miller time.  Miller A Time

 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Ain't happen James

If only he could be here for this.

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Wow!!!  And just crawl NE from there

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Rain in Sandwich?

Doubtful. But likely very wet snow, outages, damage. I guess there's a chance I slot at the end but not until after like 15"+

 

[Henry's Weather]

10 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Was just looking at the 30-yr archive and landed on March 13-14, 2018 as a decent analog.

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-1-3-2021
 

Groundhog’s day 2021 is another strong analog (omega block, no +PNA, similar s/w track)

[WxWatcher007]

Nammy looking delicious at 30...off the Delmarva. 

[ROOSTA]

Impact rating a 5.

General public...let the hype begin. Well warranted!

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Doubtful. But likely very wet snow, outages, damage. I guess there's a chance I slot at the end but not until after like 15"+

 

will be f'ng epic dude enjoy a Snowicane and stay safe seriously 

[BrianW]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

This is going to usher in a traffic apocalypse in New Haven. They did such a shit job with the January storm that there are still plenty of streets partially blocked and down to basically one lane of traffic for both directions. Also, it looks like they've depleted their mountain of salt by I-91. Going to be a fun commute to the office Monday.

Yeah. There is zero road salt in New Haven. That mountain is completely gone. That's the only import and storage area in the state for salt. I believe it also supplies the 91 corridor up into New England. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

NAM! even more amped! still loading though

[Go Kart Mozart]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's absolutely insane holy shit 

1.7"+-  inches for me and still in full hammer mode....

[weatherwiz]

NAM going nuclear...holy shit. it's happening 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Nammy looking delicious at 30...off the Delmarva. 

Looking more zonked like 00z rather than 6z

[Sey-Mour Snow]

LBNE more again ! Epic .. tucked in but waiting longer to blow load on NAM

[Go Kart Mozart]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Nammy looking delicious at 30...off the Delmarva. 

Stronger and slower at 39hrs?

[ROOSTA]

Details...

Pivot point with a LLJ 70+

Looking at 24-30"

[Baroclinic Zone]

Hold me

[Damage In Tolland]

That’s a hurricane 

[PowderBeard]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

NAM going nuclear...holy shit. it's happening 

[Henry's Weather]

Deepens 18 mb in 6 hours between 36 and 42

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Stalls east of atlantic city hurricane force gusts on shore 

[ineedsnow]

Holy shit just saw the HRRR and now the NAM WOW!!!!

[Baroclinic Zone]

7mb stronger than 06z run.