“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Brings laptop outside , drawing maps, issuances and posts in between shovels , all the while the house has turned into lips and hips all over floors 

Wife on next flight to Uganda.

[Snowcrazed71]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hammer’s thinking 1-2 feet for all of CT

Did he post that now for NBC?

[Modfan2]

12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I spent the whole week not talking about it because it looked like a glancing blow at best and we had storm 1 and storm 2. 

A massive snow with more meat to it and big wind, along with what's already on the ground...not to mention moderate coastal flooding...I'm legit kicking around calling this an extreme impact event. I don't want to get too far over my skiis though. I mean this is my front yard this morning. 

I mean bing it on, as much as possible, but

My only concerns here are 1) Messenger shuffle and 2) CT River Valley shadowing. I think we can still pull 12+, but I'm slightly nervous about it. 

It's coming. 

Is that dry air getting looped on this in E CT with the light blue shade?

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Most of my family and some of my friends are already done with this. They're all calling me already blaming me for this storm coming. All I could do is laugh. Hysterical. Wouldn't it be ironic if we got another one next weekend...lol

I don't think we're done after this. 

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Did he post that now for NBC?

I saw 10-20" but I try not to pay attention to other maps to avoid tainting my forecast. 

Just now, Modfan2 said:

Is that dry air getting looped on this in E CT with the light blue shade?

We should be fine. I'm not seeing any big dry slotting issues. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Most of my family and some of my friends are already done with this. They're all calling me already blaming me for this storm coming. All I could do is laugh. Hysterical. Wouldn't it be ironic if we got another one next weekend...lol

Don’t ya think?

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Is that dry air getting looped on this in E CT with the light blue shade?

That would probably slide NE but yeah…the dry conveyor will start getting wrapped around the low.

[SouthCoastMA]

Aside from that initial tuck east of Jersey, we don't get much of a stall/loop like some of this past biggies. Probably the only thing holding back the widespread 2-3ft totals..

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Did he post that now for NBC?

Nothing posted as of yet 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That would probably slide NE but yeah…the dry conveyor will start getting wrapped around the low.

You put it better than I could. Thanks. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Nothing posted as of yet 

He was done with this though after the overnight euro shat the bed. 

[dendrite]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Aside from that initial tuck east of Jersey, we don't get much of a stall/loop like some of this past biggies. Probably the only thing holding back the widespread 2-3ft totals..

It’s pretty much stacked early on….those “blizzard loops” happen in maturing storms when the sfc low starts getting “pulled” in by the upper low. 

[512high]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

That would probably slide NE but yeah…the dry conveyor will start getting wrapped around the low.

Sooooo for ASH area cement type with little wind ?(up coming event)?

[Kitz Craver]

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I spent the whole week not talking about it because it looked like a glancing blow at best and we had storm 1 and storm 2. 

A massive snow with more meat to it and big wind, along with what's already on the ground...not to mention moderate coastal flooding...I'm legit kicking around calling this an extreme impact event. I don't want to get too far over my skiis though. I mean this is my front yard this morning. 

I mean bing it on, as much as possible, but

My only concerns here are 1) Messenger shuffle and 2) CT River Valley shadowing. I think we can still pull 12+, but I'm slightly nervous about it. 

It's coming. 

What’s your location? Your pack held up really well

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

You put it better than I could. Thanks. 

Well you’re right I think. Unless the track gets close to the Cape the upper slot should stay offshore. I’m still worried about some mid level dry air up here though.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, 512high said:

Sooooo for ASH area cement type with little wind ?(up coming event)?

Nah…should be powder with some wind and drifting. Nothing crazy for wind though like coastal sections.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

What’s your location? Your pack held up really well

East Hartford. This is easily the best pack I've seen since 2013. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He was done with this though after the overnight euro shat the bed. 

It’s coming 

[Kitz Craver]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

East Hartford. This is easily the best pack I've seen since 2013. 

Solid man

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

It’s seriously trying to landfall like 10-12 of those members

Bun me if you must ... but this is a little frustrating seeing these runs get cute with their position fixes in that 48 to 70 hour window overnight.   

This look above, is theoretically more supported than any other guidance I've seen, including the GFS, since 3 days ago frankly. 

It doesn't mean that the low has to come within 40 MI S of Block Island like that ... for the record.  However, there's a leitmotif along this thing's modeling history has lacked commitment to where this thing should be, relative to a few different synoptic arguments, wave signature(s) and mass conservation and stuff.    

I've said multiple times over the years that this pursuit is a game of managing nested anomalies.   We have a -PNA, which principle, is an anomaly; inside which we have a positive relative PNA burst, also an anomaly relative to the former.   Inside which hosts this anomalous event, inside of which ... the idiosyncrasies of track and storm morphology dictates a pedestrian showing N-W of roughly HFD-BOS ... while limiting the ferocity SE of that line.  The inner most nested anomaly has the surface preferential to a SE position within 'the cone' - so to speak. 

It's annoying.   Be that as it may ... 

But - as an example - if we look at 42 hour surface featuring of the 06z Euro operational, there is low position ~ 75 to 100 MI E of the Va Capes.  At that time the best quasi-geostrophic forcing is not there.  It's WNW around the Ches. Bay side of the Del Marva stinger.   But this is like teeing off in Golf (metaphor), where you swore you swung a great stroke but you hit the ball 1 deg off the sweet spot and that tiny error ends up being an unsavory fairway fringe lie by the time the ball gets 300 yds down stream.     Just a knee jerk guess ... the models are ending up mid way between the best deep layer forcing, and what may be irresistible ...ultimately real mad mad convective instability out there.    

[cleetussnow]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

None of them are. Just pick whichever one you like the most and roll with it.

Thats how its done

[Damage In Tolland]

[SouthCoastMA]

I think Feb 13 is a decent comp for SEMass, with respect to damage potential. maybe 13 Lite

[mahk_webstah]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I felt a little bad for Ray last night when he put out 18-30” or something for S NH and then immediately after the next 2 models took a decent shift SE

I felt bad for me

[WxWatcher007]

Hoping for a Nammy slamme in a few minutes.

[ROOSTA]

Hellascious banding, warm inclusion, gravity waves with satellite eye-candy.

90F again today, cold wave alert with a 50F drop in temperature by Tuesday morning.

[CoastalWx]

Hrrr is nuts but extended hrrr

[Johnno]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Chuck em far and wide 

[TheSnowman]

29 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Most of my family and some of my friends are already done with this. They're all calling me already blaming me for this storm coming. All I could do is laugh. Hysterical. Wouldn't it be ironic if we got another one next weekend...lol

Story of my life.  Anytime it’s going to snow even moderately I get calls with THIS IS ALL YOUR FAULT!!  YOU WILL THIS CRAP ON!

 

 To which I ask these insufferable pelle the same question: The country is 3000 miles x 1500 miles thick.  If you live here and hate winter, that’s on YOU.  Go.  Somewhere.  Else.  

 

Into CT heading to NYC.  

[WxWatcher007]

I think this is wrong but if I leave SLK to come back to this I would lose my bleeping mind  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr is nuts but extended hrrr

F’ng snowicane stalled south of Long Island! LFG !