SouthCoastMA Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Oh, IDK,,,living on the ocean with an 81mb PG lol - was genuinely curious if it was about wind, snow amounts, or possible mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: They will both tick to each other, to some degree, is what I’m thinking. Yes, But the question will be when? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 No matter the model, this has some explosive potential. Whew boy it could get breezy. 925mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I think we max the nw trends at 0z-6z then stabilize then an east tick at go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJBASHB Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Boxing Day had the deformation band well west of QPF depiction IIRC and it led to some prolific snow amounts due to ratios. I know this sort of gets thrown out as a bone when people worry about QPF output. But it seems like deform bands are a little harder to predict? CCBs tend to show too broad of a gradient then sharpen as we get closer but placement is fairly consistent relative to the surface track. Is this amateur analysis too far off? What would one look for to predict placement and potential amounts well west of the QPF depiction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 CMC looks kinda like the 6z euro except more progressive, lacking the tug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 All hail the king: yesterdays 12z to todays… 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 yup GEFS looking a hair west... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Lot of big dogs showing up on CIPS analogs as you would expect on the NAM 12Z. 2013, 2015, 2022, 2018 etc.. GFS isnt out yet but the 00Z run had a lot of other big ones like 2001, 2006, 2010 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 12z looks to me like it would place a death band west of Juno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 GEFS slightly west of 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 12z looks to me like it would place a death band right where Juno did. Yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 what a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yay I corrected that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: All hail the king: yesterdays 12z to todays… I silently follow the JMA its not as bad as some say. Got a bad rep but isn't any worse than the other JV models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, mahk_webstah said: I think we max the nw trends at 0z-6z then stabilize then an east tick at go time. The more progressive and booted northward we can get this the better. H5 really isn’t wrapping fully up until it’s near the BM now. I want PVA slamming into MVY. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I corrected that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: I silently follow the JMA its not as bad as some say. Got a bad rep but isn't any worse than the other JV models. It was the first to have a blizzard yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: I silently follow the JMA its not as bad as some say. Got a bad rep but isn't any worse than the other JV models. Me too lol. It’s been pretty damn consistent all week going back to it’s 12z tuesday run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: It was the first to have a blizzard yesterday. 20 year anniversary of its last coup, Feb 06 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If we get a deep layer easterly fetch, that will happen....and east slopes of ORH will rival se MA for JP...especially with CJ capability reduced given decreased SST/land lapse. Pray for deformation, even a glancing blow from it. Might be all we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It was the first to have a blizzard yesterday. It had it Tuesday at 12z actually but no one noticed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Great time to be on the south coast. itll be tough getting the latitude necessary for more than a scrape here at pit2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 13 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: About? Snow and wind but particularly losing power which to be fair always sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Looking at H7 on the 12z GFS it looks like it would get precip back pretty far west of the low at the surface. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Ukie way NW and finally a hit. 20 burger for PYM area. Prob close to a foot for BOS-PVD....rest of us are in the 6-10" range except far western MA. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 23 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Feels like we’re maxing west trends currently. I’d fully expect a jog east. i think the Jan 22 references are legit. This obviously isn’t as potent of a system. However, that slowly faded SE over the last couple days. It was obviously an all time event here because we got in the deformation band, but that was originally modeled way west. 23 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This is following, quite literally, the same progression we’ve seen from all these systems this year. some mid range waffling, but ultimately, there was never real support. Just enough to waste everyone’s time for 3-4 days, before it finally slowly vanishes under 100 hours 23 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It has no support. It’s wrong. We all know it’s wrong. I get the mental gymnastics of always expecting the worst, so you can never be disappointed, but isn’t this absolutely exhausting? Even when you do very well there’s always a “could have been better”. Just sit back and enjoy the ride! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Ukie way NW and finally a hit. 20 burger for PYM area. Prob close to a foot for BOS-PVD....rest of us are in the 6-10" range except far western MA. Might be in business now...pending Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 13 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yes, But the question will be when? We just dont know… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I hope Zeus checks in on you guys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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