“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I assume you’re being facetious this far out. Especially since these never trend north especially on the GFS.

The one tomorrow? Doesn't look great...

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The one tomorrow? Doesn't look great...

Tomorrow is dung 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

UKIE!  close but seems to blows it load early.. all major models have some kind of storm at 12z!! we take!

Definite LBSW trend today...I would rather have that problem at day 5-6 with a Miller B then having it blow up in the GOM.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Definite LBSW trend today...I would rather have that problem at day 5-6 with a Miller B then  having it blow up in the GOM.

Yes. They always blow their loads later than what guidance tries to show. This looks like a really big one for EOR. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yes. They always blow their loads later than what guidance tries to show. This looks like a really big one for EOR. 

You have some wiggle room here with models bulls eying NJ right now.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yes. They always blow their loads later than what guidance tries to show. This looks like a really big one for EOR. 

Yes definitely multi model support continues for a classic SNE blizzard.  

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yes definitely multi model support continues for a classic SNE blizzard.  

Coming to a neighborhood near you?

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yes definitely multi model support continues for a classic SNE blizzard.  

I feel better about it with the trend out west.

[mahk_webstah]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The one tomorrow? Doesn't look great...

Well  you’re in this thread, so I assumed you were referring to this storm.  We’re both almost certainly out of the Wednesday one, but we still have a shot of a decent one on Friday and then the main event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Well  you’re in this thread, so I assumed you were referring to this storm.  We’re both almost certainly out of the Wednesday one, but we still have a shot of a decent one on Friday and then the main event.

Right, which is why I chose the language I did..."first one", "latter two".

[dryslot]

Tomorrows is dogdhit for other then 10 people doing chest bumps and high fiving ea other.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pacific Trough patterns can be great when you have a mechanism to deflect the track southward in the nation's midsection....some of our most active and prolific stretches have happened like this....March 2001, January 2011, March 2018, etc.....Pac just keeps spitting out energy and the mid latitudes funnel it into a favorable slot.

[Typhoon Tip]

regardless of whatever the UKMET is painting on the sfc chart for this 150 hour outlook off this 12z run ... storm climatology would place a very intense arc of precipitation roughly White Plains to BOS for this kind of 500 mb

[brooklynwx99]

pretty impressive model agreement and synoptic support for a potentially major storm at this range

[Cyclone-68]

32 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Coming to a neighborhood near you?

Sans the cannibalism this time I hope 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Skynet shows the whiff/graze possibility, the biggest concern imo.

[EastonSN+]

[EastonSN+]

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Skynet shows the whiff/graze possibility, the biggest concern imo.

Yeah the latest GEFS was not inspiring 

[Kitz Craver]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Skynet shows the whiff/graze possibility, the biggest concern imo.

Damn, I wanted to see that hold somewhat from 6z

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah the latest GEFS was not inspiring 

We’ve struggled with well timed phases along the NE. Certainly the whales in the open waters north of bermuda have enjoyed the nukes but I would lean towards a graze again. Several vorts look to pinwheel around the trough which usually equates to sloppiness. If that cleans up, sure…but for now, we fade hecs. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’ve struggled with well timed phases along the NE. Certainly the whales in the open waters north of bermuda have enjoyed the nukes but I would lean towards a graze again. Several vorts look to pinwheel around the trough which usually equates to sloppiness. If that cleans up, sure…but for now, we fade hecs. 

Yea, I mean....I feel better than I did a couple of days ago, but it's still a coin-flip at best.

[ORH_wxman]

I’m not overly worried about suppression. Can’t completely rule it out, but this is pretty amped as it crosses the Midwest. I’d rather see this a touch south right now like a lot of guidance has it. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I mean....I feel better than I did a couple of days ago, but it's still a coin-flip at best.

It’s nice to see a consolidation of a big one at d5 but yea, that doesn’t equate to a collective nudity yet. 

[Hazey]

There is always a turd in the punchbowl. Been the theme all season. Attenuation is the word of the winter. The big winner this year is Newfoundland. The s/w's have been phasing perfectly to crush them. St. John's at 300cms. Gander over 400cms and they still have 3 months of winter left. 

The newfs have been stealing all our snow...lol

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s nice to see a consolidation of a big one at d5 but yea, that doesn’t equate to a collective nudity yet. 

There is a fighting chance given changes out west.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Hazey said:

There is always a turd in the punchbowl. Been the theme all season. Attenuation is the word of the winter. The big winner this year is Newfoundland. The s/w's have been phasing perfectly to crush them. St. John's at 300cms. Gander over 400cms and they still have 3 months of winter left. 

The newfs have been stealing all our snow...lol

 

Didn't they get the fast-flow memo?

[ineedsnow]

Euro meh

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s nice to see a consolidation of a big one at d5 but yea, that doesn’t equate to a collective nudity yet. 

Would be nice to see a biggy for multiple reasons...anything that melts the next day would be nice to pass at this point, today has that early March vibe to it

[dryslot]

Euro still pretty weak keeping it OTS at 12z verbatim