SACRUS Posted Tuesday at 04:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:33 PM 2/17 12z UKMET 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Tuesday at 04:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:35 PM U K M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Tuesday at 04:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:36 PM 51 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 2/17 12z NYC QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24 ICON: 1.7 / rain to hvy snow GFS AI AIGFS: 1.8 / rain to hvy snow GFS: 1.3 / Hvy snow GGEM: 1.9 / Hvy prolific snow UKMET: 1.1 / Hvy snow Updated suite 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Tuesday at 04:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:36 PM 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The CMC is also trying to turn Fri-Sat into an event followed by one of the biggest blizzards in NYC metro area history. If that’s correct, it would completely cripple the area for days on end, probably over a week Friday snow event is definitely further S verbatim 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted Tuesday at 04:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:37 PM This is some crazy model consensus this far out. It could easily wind up being a whiff but when most of the major models converge on a similar solution even 5-6 days out it garners attention at the very least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Tuesday at 04:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:38 PM Social media hysteria will commence shortly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 04:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:40 PM 1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said: This some crazy model consensus this far out. It could easily wind up being a whiff but when most of the major models converge on a similar solution even 5-6 days out it garners attention at the very least. Even if its only half of what most of the models are showing now its still going to be at least a SECS or MECS in many areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 04:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:40 PM 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Social media hysteria will commence shortly. Its already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Tuesday at 04:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:40 PM 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Friday snow event is definitely further S verbatim Yep. Then it goes full on historic blizzard with a deep freeze right after. If it’s correct (big IF), it would totally shut down and cripple NYC for days, if not a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Tuesday at 04:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:41 PM 4 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Updated suite Remarkable consensus 5+ days out. The kind you really wish happened 24+ hours out instead because so much can go wrong. Ensembles will be key right now however getting the CMC on board is huge along with AI models which have been doing great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 04:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:41 PM 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Friday snow event is definitely further S verbatim Gfs has another snow event after this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 04:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:44 PM 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs has another snow event after this weekend one at a time -lol - where is that Philadelphia dude who was predicting the big warmup ? Also I hope sleet doesn't get involved in this that is part of the reason we still have a thick layer of ice/snow on the ground from the storm over 3 weeks ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 04:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:47 PM AI GEFS is great. Regular gefs is horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Tuesday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:51 PM 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: AI GEFS is great. Regular gefs is horrible. GFS has been hot garbage for a while including the GEFS too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 04:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:52 PM 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: AI GEFS is great. Regular gefs is horrible. thats an nteresting question ?-why is the GEFS horrible ?- I would be concerned but there is enough support from several other models to not worry yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Tuesday at 04:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:52 PM 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: AI GEFS is great. Regular gefs is horrible. Yea, the GEFS is completely at odds with the op run. I’m more curious to see what the GEPS does after that wild run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted Tuesday at 04:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:55 PM 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: AI GEFS is great. Regular gefs is horrible. GFS has been great this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Tuesday at 04:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:56 PM 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: GFS has been hot garbage for a while including the GEFS too I remember for the storm 3 weeks ago, when all the other models were trending north, the GFS had a couple of runs where it was a disjointed mess and stayed mostly south. This was just 4 days out. Obviously that didn’t verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Tuesday at 04:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:56 PM 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yea, the GEFS is completely at odds with the op run. I’m more curious to see what the GEPS does after that wild run Or the Euro. Although its performance this season has been tepid at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 04:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:56 PM Just now, qg_omega said: GFS has been great this winter Classic gefs. Its not far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Tuesday at 05:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:05 PM when do you think we'll get blizzard watches and warnings? 1 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Tuesday at 05:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:07 PM 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: when do you think we'll get blizzard watches and warnings? Blizzard watches were discontinued in late 2017. 8 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 05:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:08 PM 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: when do you think we'll get blizzard watches and warnings? When you issue them with one of your future forecast packages 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted Tuesday at 05:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:08 PM 2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: when do you think we'll get blizzard watches and warnings? When you self bar yourself again. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted Tuesday at 05:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:09 PM 4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: when do you think we'll get blizzard watches and warnings? Please, it's still 5-6 days away. Time for many things to change, but I like where they are today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted Tuesday at 05:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:10 PM we are due to hit pay dirt with this storm end winter with a bang.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. T. Posted Tuesday at 05:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:12 PM Still waiting until Friday night to get excited. Have a feeling this will be warmer then its depicting, but glad to see a lot of models coming together to at least show something. Long way to go still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted Tuesday at 05:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:12 PM Just now, nycwinter said: we are due to hit pay dirt with this storm end winter with a bang.. Why does everyone want to end winter while still in February? Approaching mid March I might understand it especially for all of you NYC and south.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted Tuesday at 05:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:13 PM 4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: when do you think we'll get blizzard watches and warnings? Per Noaa - Watches are issued up to 72 hours in advance with forecaster confidence around 50%. So... if things look really good on Thursday, Winter Storm watches will be hoisted. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted Tuesday at 05:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:13 PM when do you think we'll get blizzard watches and warnings?After 12z runs on Saturday. Storm is still very far away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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