Damage In Tolland Posted yesterday at 01:27 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:27 AM 8 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Not much ice or snow to speak of for this one in CT albeit the extreme northern areas along the MA border Probably not correct 1 1 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted yesterday at 01:33 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:33 AM 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Probably not correct I hope not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted yesterday at 01:37 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:37 AM 3 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: I hope not We should have a good feel by noon tomorrow . With that maritime low.. it argues for a continued south trend . But we’ll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted yesterday at 01:42 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:42 AM 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Those are terrible maps Realistically, They all are if you get right down to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted yesterday at 01:46 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:46 AM This is why it's nice to be in this horrible location for snow. Will I get no snow, or no snow? I'm going with... Well, actually, I'm driving up to the Adirondacks again. Good luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted yesterday at 02:36 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:36 AM Nam is a tick South. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted yesterday at 03:03 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:03 AM NAM is pretty cold too. It’s not particularly juicy though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted yesterday at 03:12 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:12 AM What the qpf takes away from here hopefully the cold gives back. 2-4” or 3-5” still seems likely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted yesterday at 04:20 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:20 AM Bit of a northward tickle from 12z to 0z on the GFS it appears. The differences upstream over NY state at 18z on Weds are quite shocking between the GFS and even the Euro compared to the NAM. There’s been a very steady and now becoming quite substantial northern trend on AIFS and Euro-AI models over the past couple days. Just look at projections for 2/19 at 0z since 12z on Valentine’s Day. The N-NE extent of QPF has gone from the tristate region to CNE. The GFS has also mirrored these steady ticks over the last 48 hours. Been thinking about medium range overmodeled confluence over recent days, looks like that was indeed the case again. What DOES give me pause on this is the NAM is getting closer to range and is doubling down on the weaker/south idea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted yesterday at 04:27 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:27 AM 5 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said: Bit of a northward tickle from 12z to 0z on the GFS it appears. The differences upstream over NY state at 18z on Weds are quite shocking between the GFS and even the Euro compared to the NAM. There’s been a very steady and now becoming quite substantial northern trend on AI models over the past couple days as well. Been thinking about medium range overmodeled confluence over recent days, looks like that was indeed the case again. Still plenty of time to steal someone’s snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted yesterday at 08:32 AM Share Posted yesterday at 08:32 AM NAM is a tick north and warmer again. But I’m out of the game either way now…onto Friday here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted yesterday at 01:45 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:45 PM Snoozer here. Probably going to ruin my commute tomorrow, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 01:47 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:47 PM Hoping for 1-3” of paste. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted yesterday at 01:49 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:49 PM That’s where I’m at. Cold rain to paste 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted yesterday at 02:01 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 02:01 PM 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s where I’m at. Cold rain to paste I'm thinking 2-4" for you. Probably 3" of wet snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted yesterday at 02:08 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:08 PM oof this is becoming a bit ugly. Really may be Pike north for best shot at any accumulations more than a few inches...maybe CT Hills can squeak an inch or two. Such a tough forecast, the band of snow is going to be so narrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted yesterday at 02:13 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 02:13 PM 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: oof this is becoming a bit ugly. Really may be Pike north for best shot at any accumulations more than a few inches...maybe CT Hills can squeak an inch or two. Such a tough forecast, the band of snow is going to be so narrow Relatively low impact. Not like the rates will be high. DPWs won't have much issue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted yesterday at 02:13 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:13 PM Whatever model local Mets were showing this morning had a pretty decent switch over to snow although they all hedged and said it was way overdone with that aspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted yesterday at 02:16 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:16 PM 14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I'm thinking 2-4" for you. Probably 3" of wet snow I could see that but think 1-3” might be better as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted yesterday at 02:17 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:17 PM Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Relatively low impact. Not like the rates will be high. DPWs won't have much issue I was thinking yesterday someone could probably pull off 3-4-5" but I don't see that happening now. I mean I'm sure someone in the Berks will do it way up but looking around at forecast soundings on the 12z NAM...they absolutely blow. Much of the precip type tomorrow is probably going to be rain (we'll say rain showers because the intensities overall probably not heavy outside of a narrow area) with some sleet pellets mixing in...and some areas will bounce around between like 70-30 or 80/20 mixture and you'll probably have to get into the hills to get some mangled snow flakes mixing in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted yesterday at 02:17 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:17 PM 14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I'm thinking 2-4" for you. Probably 3" of wet snow Maybe the hills near Union, Woodstock, and Stafford; Tolland might see a coating 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted yesterday at 02:19 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:19 PM I could see tomorrow too being a case where the radar returns are much stronger than ground truth because of the degree of bright banding we'll see taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted yesterday at 02:24 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:24 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 02:27 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:27 PM What a weird system. Very narrow area that may do ok. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted yesterday at 02:31 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:31 PM here in the battleground area, we'll take small victories when we can... the 3km being colder than the 12km for example 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted yesterday at 02:31 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:31 PM 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Need a last minute north bump 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted yesterday at 02:34 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:34 PM 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a weird system. Very narrow area that may do ok. I wonder if this energy diving in is the make or break for multiple inches of accumulation. This is some pretty decent shortwave energy diving along with a rapid increase in the lapse rates so it becomes fairly unstable aloft. This also would support sort of a re-blossoming of precipitation downstream of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 02:35 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:35 PM Just now, weatherwiz said: I wonder if this energy diving in is the make or break for multiple inches of accumulation. This is some pretty decent shortwave energy diving along with a rapid increase in the lapse rates so it becomes fairly unstable aloft. This also would support sort of a re-blossoming of precipitation downstream of it. Drier air working in below 700mb though. So it’s a battle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted yesterday at 02:36 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:36 PM 23 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Relatively low impact. Not like the rates will be high. DPWs won't have much issue It’s going to snow pretty good for a few hours along a narrow strip. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted yesterday at 02:37 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:37 PM Just now, CoastalWx said: Drier air working in below 700mb though. So it’s a battle. Yup...going to be a tough one. Just like you said, probably be a very narrow area that may do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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