Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[mappy]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

He has been doing this regularly for weeks now in both the Central PA and the Philly threads. He's been asked to stop and and even coached to make better posts. Unfortunately, this is what he continues to do. The vast majority of posters in those 2 subs now have him on ignore. 

Ooof. Thanks for bringing that to attention

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

North Carolina is STILL scoring in March 

Game, set, and match, Mitchnik.  Lol

[SnowenOutThere]

Wait and see what'll happen. I don't really care to synoptically analyze this like I did with our December storms and January event because unfortunately the more likely outcome as of now is no snow. Most ens keep the possibility of an inch of snow somewhere in the 40-60% range which frankly shows this isn't worth getting excited over. Just need to pray that the H5 pass trends further south or west depending on the model to capture the surface low in the ideal spot. Nothing we can do but hurry up and wait. 

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Some people just don’t learn 

Some people act stupid.  Others aren't acting.  

[mitchnick]

Ukie ensembles only because they may provide false hope.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Ukie ensembles only because they may provide false hope.

Thank you, you did an excellent job.  Now rest up so you're ready when we need you to post the 0z UK kuch maps showing 27" 

[mitchnick]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Thank you, you did an excellent job.  Now rest up so you're ready when we need you to post the 0z UK kuch maps showing 27" 

95% chance I'll be dribbling out of my mouth asleep, dreaming about having to wash and blow dry a full head of hair when it comes out tonight. That job is for another.

[winter_warlock]

55 minutes ago, Ji said:

Plenty of time for it to get worse

Ji, ud never make it as a motivational speaker bro 

[GaWx]

12Z AI Weathernext2 SV: DC 6” vs 8” on 6Z

 

 

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z AI Weathernext2 SV: DC 6” vs 8” on 6Z

 

 

Does anyone really even have any faith in this model?

[Amped]

The happy hour Nam will save us.

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Does anyone really even have any faith in this model?

 Nobody should ever have faith in any model. But Weathernext was pretty good for some storms this winter.

[Wetbulbs88]

I love how I saw some sensationalist Accuweather article about a "huge storm" about to hit, come here, and see that it's already deteriorated. 

Weather media is desperate for eyeballs. 

[arlwx12]

Snip from LWX's latest AFD...

KEY MESSAGE 2... Low pressure tracking nearby brings a slight winter
storm threat to the forecast area this weekend.

Further cold advection will take place Sunday as a trough dives
across the Great Lakes. High temperatures on Sunday will be in
the low to mid 40s with overnight lows dropping near or below
freezing. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop over
the southeast Sunday before deepening and tracking offshore
towards New England Sunday night into Monday morning. This low
pressure system brings increasing precipitation chances and a
slight winter storm threat to the forecast area on Sunday.

Models continue to show a wide range of solutions with uncertainty
dependent on the strength, track, and timing of the low pressure
system. Precipitation will likely begin as rain Saturday night into
Sunday morning with snow mixing in overnight. With marginal
temperatures throughout the day, the current forecast has a
rain/snow mix likely throughout the day with precipitation type
becoming primarily snow as temperatures fall Sunday night.
Confidence in accumulating snow remains highest in the
Alleghenies where temperatures are more favorable, although
global guidance continues to show some degree of accumulating
snow further east. There has been some increase in the
probability of minor impacts via WPC`s probabilistic WSSI. With
this event being 4 days out, there remains plenty of time for
any variable to change and thus greatly altering the forecast.
If this threat materializes, travel disruptions are possible but
we will continue monitoring as this event gets closer.

[soadforecasterx]

I just want Nam to show a crazy amp'd solution just to show some false hope 

[GaWx]

 As posted earlier, MJO phase 3 is a plus based on it having been the coldest phase on avg in Feb during La Niña. However, the GEFS progged strong -PNA presents a challenge to getting a significant snow per daily PNAs since 1950.

For the 19 DC 3”+ snowstorms during the 40 La Nina or cold neutral Febs since 1950, here were the daily PNAs:

 

2/11/25 +0.9

2/25-6/14 +0.5

2/13/14 -1.1

2/12/06 +1.7

2/8/97 +0.5

2/16/96 -0.4

2/2/96 +0.7

2/4/95 +1.6

2/24/86 +0.3

2/22/86 -0.4

2/4/75 -0.3

2/8/74 -0.2

2/19/72 -0.5

2/17/72 -0.7

2/2/72 -1.1

2/17/67 +0.3

2/7/67 +0.7

2/13/60 +0.2

2/7/51 +0.3

Median +0.3

Mean +0.2

Highest +1.7

Lowest -1.1

 

Feb 8th GEFS PNA for 2/22-3: ~-1.2

 So, should the PNA verify close to this GEFS run and there be 3”+, this would be near the lowest PNA for a DC Feb 3”+ snowstorm during La Niña since 1950. Thus, for a better shot at 3”+, I’d rather the PNA trend less negative.

[CAPE]

It's time to start a thread. Reverse jinx and shit.

[CAPE]

Whose storm is this anyway?

 

 

[LVblizzard]

14 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

I just want Nam to show a crazy amp'd solution just to show some false hope 

The NAM did improve slightly at H5 but the surface is still complete dogshit.

[Interstate]

Ye of little faith. This one is ours. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Whose storm is this anyway?

 

 

I nominated it for @Maestrobjwa since he is so interested in this week every year 

[Paleocene]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Whose storm is this anyway?

 

 

Maestros 

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Whose storm is this anyway?

 

 

Well uh...it was supposed to be mine. But I thought we'd wait until 12z tomorrow but kinda put that in. After last night's runs I thought the threat was squashed so I hadn't thought of it today! But I can if there's legit potential

[Nomz]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Well uh...it was supposed to be mine. But I thought we'd wait until 12z tomorrow but kinda put that in. After last night's runs I thought the threat was squashed so I hadn't thought of it today! But I can if there's legit potential

Shouldnt have logged back on lol

[Solution Man]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Well uh...it was supposed to be mine. But I thought we'd wait until 12z tomorrow but kinda put that in. After last night's runs I thought the threat was squashed so I hadn't thought of it today! But I can if there's legit potential

Just start it, ain’t gonna hurt nothing 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well uh...it was supposed to be mine. But I thought we'd wait until 12z tomorrow but kinda put that in. After last night's runs I thought the threat was squashed so I hadn't thought of it today! But I can if there's legit potential

You might be in trouble lad. No excuses. Start a thread. I hate the damn jinx thing, but nothing to lose at this point for those who do believe in such crap.

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You might be in trouble lad. No excuses. Start a thread. I hate the damn jinx thing, but nothing to lose at this point for those who do believe in such crap.

I don't believe in the jinx thread either...but is there even any storm left to even make a thread about is my question. Last night looked like a clear trend towards zilch

[Scraff]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well uh...it was supposed to be mine. But I thought we'd wait until 12z tomorrow but kinda put that in. After last night's runs I thought the threat was squashed so I hadn't thought of it today! But I can if there's legit potential

Start it after 18z happy hour runs. Fuck it. It’s going to snow…or not…no matter what. 

[CAPE]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I don't believe in that either...but is there any storm left to even make a thread about is my question.

Who knows? We rely on model simulations that are volatile 4-5 days out. Make a thread. You are a musician right? Be creative.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, CAPE said:

Who knows? We rely on model simulations that are volatile 4-5 days out. Make a thread. You are a musician right? Be creative.

Okay didn't love the undertone of mockery at the end of that...but alright!