Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[Blizzard of 93]

19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS:  still looks like an all or nothing event for most members.

Will, that’s the 18z run.

[CAPE]

Still discombobulated but it kinda works out this run. I doubt this is the final outcome(hopefully not)

Looks like interior areas get snow associated with the lead shortwave as it sharpens-

Eastern areas get snow resulting from the phase and the developing offshore coastal low. Precarious.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the 6z AI EPS 48 hour snow through Monday.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EPS: about 18/50 or 36%.

[Weather Will]

16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Will, that’s the 18z run.

Sorry, reposted!

[mitchnick]

Not such a bad look on the Eps Sunday at 1pm. And it is a mean.

[stormy]

The best thing I can say this morning is this threat is still 4 days away. Anything can happen in 4 days.

Yesterday morning I said don't plan tailgate parties until Saturday. That applies again today.

One big question to me has always been. Will the main action be tucked into the coast or too far offshore??  Yesterday, the Euro couldn't find the storm because it was half way to Bermuda before it really cranked.   Things are a little better this morning but the GEFS is way out there.

The benchmark for a big hit west of 95 is usually an east longitudinal alignment with Norfolk.  South or even southwest is a different ballgame. Eastern folks can do somewhat better a little offshore, but this is too much for most. (Unless it changes)

Always trying to be positive, I'm happy that my 7 model blend this morning is 2.1 inches.

[GaWx]

6Z SV AI Weathernext2: 8” DC

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

6Z SV AI Weathernext2: 8” DC

That's looking like the Euro AI precip distribution wise except displaced a tad north, also get's that 6 inch line way back into VA.  I'd love to see the members for this.  

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS: about 18/50 or 36%.

You should line this up with the member MSLP panels. Looks like around 20 indicate little to no impact from the coastal low. Combo of weak/too far offshore.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

That's looking like the Euro AI precip distribution wise except displaced a tad north, also get's that 6 inch line way back into VA.  I'd love to see the members for this.  

Keep in mind that the SV scale is off by 1, at least on the Euro I know it is. So if you're in the color scale says 6"+, it's  really 4"+.

[Ji]

Still discombobulated but it kinda works out this run. I doubt this is the final outcome(hopefully not)
Looks like interior areas get snow associated with the lead shortwave as it sharpens-

Eastern areas get snow resulting from the phase and the developing offshore coastal low. Precarious.

 

This looks like a dumbed down version of the Carolina snowstorm last month. Charlotte got nailed Raleigh dry slotted and beach got blizzard lol

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Keep in mind that the SV scale is off by 1, at least on the Euro I know it is. So if you're in the color scale says 6"+, it's  really 4"+.

Is the SV color scale off on AI Weathernext2, too? How would we know?

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Is the SV color scale off on AI Weathernext2, too? How would we know?

I don't know. But thought I'd mention it because I  would guess it's a possibility. You know us snow weenies...terribly vindictive! Lol

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

This looks like a dumbed down version of the Carolina snowstorm last month. Charlotte got nailed Raleigh dry slotted and beach got blizzard lol

The writing was on the wall early in the season. Like I said in December and several times since, you really want to be in the bullseye with the first threat. To the naysayers, NO...., it doesn't always work out that way (think 2007 clipper that put us ahead of Boston only to be our biggest event that winter while ENE did well.) But it's reliable enough to assume the area that does bullseye first will end the season with the highest snowfall anomalies as the pattern will tend repeat through the season imho.

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I don't know. But thought I'd mention it because I  would guess it's a possibility. You know us snow weenies...terribly vindictive! Lol

Even if Weathernext2 is also off by one color, it would still be 6” at DC. I’d think 6” would be bordering on a  “major” hit there considering that I saw a stat that only 0.7 5”+ snowstorms hit DC each year at this link meaning many years don’t even get a 5” storm:

https://downloads.regulations.gov/FWS-R5-ES-2016-0030-0073/attachment_18.pdf#:~:text=For four days a year on average%2C,events that occur about twice a decade.

 

[Imgoinhungry]

Here is the 6z AI EPS 48 hour snow through Monday.

Warm temps heading in. Snow during the day. I dont think ratios will be anywhere near 10:1.


.

[TSSN+]

Just now, Imgoinhungry said:

Warm temps heading in. Snow during the day. I dont think ratios will be anywhere near 10:1.


.

Sorry we don’t have 8-1 maps 

[stormtracker]

43 minutes ago, stormy said:

The best thing I can say this morning is this threat is still 4 days away. Anything can happen in 4 days.

Yesterday morning I said don't plan tailgate parties until Saturday. That applies again today.

One big question to me has always been. Will the main action be tucked into the coast or too far offshore??  Yesterday, the Euro couldn't find the storm because it was half way to Bermuda before it really cranked.   Things are a little better this morning but the GEFS is way out there.

The benchmark for a big hit west of 95 is usually an east longitudinal alignment with Norfolk.  South or even southwest is a different ballgame. Eastern folks can do somewhat better a little offshore, but this is too much for most. (Unless it changes)

Always trying to be positive, I'm happy that my 7 model blend this morning is 2.1 inches.

I’m following @Terpeast rule.  I’m giving it till tonight

[ravensrule]

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I’m following @Terpeast rule.  I’m giving it till tonight

Houston we have a problem. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

Time to break your curse man i brought a 30" snowstorm to freaking Nokesville in 2016 I've had good luck in Leesburg and Aldie...the turd is turning out here hang in there

I want you to know it will bring me no pleasure to see your spirit get broken.

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Sorry we don’t have 8-1 maps 

Don't need them. Just multiply 10:1 numbers by .8! 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Don't need them. Just multiply 10:1 numbers by .8! 

Clearly haha 

[winter_warlock]

28 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Warm temps heading in. Snow during the day. I dont think ratios will be anywhere near 10:1.


.

So.. 8:1 or 10:1. Doesn't make that much of a difference be glad u get what u get in late February 

[psuhoffman]

31 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The writing was on the wall early in the season. Like I said in December and several times since, you really want to be in the bullseye with the first threat. To the naysayers, NO...., it doesn't always work out that way (think 2007 clipper that put us ahead of Boston only to be our biggest event that winter while ENE did well.) But it's reliable enough to assume the area that does bullseye first will end the season with the highest snowfall anomalies as the pattern will tend repeat through the season imho.

There are patterns within seasons for sure.  But some of this is perception bias and selection bias.  For example...your theory this year only works if you ignore the first real snow of the season that missed up just to the north in early December and gave parts of southern/central PA 3-6".  Of course places further north would point to that snow in November in upstate NY but do we toss that because the winter pattern had not set in yet?  Then yes...later in December those 2 events hit south of us...but I got 5" from a storm during that period also.  Which one is the one that becomes the real pattern setter?  It's easy in hindsight but that is biased.  

I am not denying your point about patterns within seasons.  There are real tendencies for a seasonal pattern to produce repeating results.  In a year like 1996 and 2010 that's great for us.  Most years...not.  But the issue is...this isn't very useful for predictive measures because of 2 things.  1) You don't know ahead of time when the pattern is starting.  2) You don't know during the pattern when it's going to end.  Every pattern breaks at some point.  Right now we don't know if that is going to be with this next storm (hopefully) or maybe March or maybe the pattern lasts into Spring and it's too late for us by the time it ends...but without knowing when it ends we can't just say every storm is going to do the same thing.  

[mappy]

31 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Warm temps heading in. Snow during the day. I dont think ratios will be anywhere near 10:1.


.

They won’t be.  

[winter_warlock]

Eps did come nw a bit compared to 00z  

 

[NorthArlington101]

It was touched on but this was by far the best EPS run for this threat. I'd buy the median right now. Likelihood of 3"+ also not too shabby

[psuhoffman]

This was always a noisy setup with a lots of various SW's and phasing involved.  Yesterday the timing and amplitude suddenly shifted with one of the waves and it changed everything.  The euro was the closest all along to what everything else shifted to, with a stronger wave in the lakes on Friday/Saturday that stalls instead of lifting out.  The timing of the weak STJ wave also changed and its running way out ahead on Saturday now, this is also influenced by the pinwheel in the lakes that wasn't there or nearly as strong on guidance until last night.  

But guidance is also trending towards a stronger inverted trough feature, also related to what's going on over the top of us.  But those are really hard to pin down.  With the trough hanging around and the upper low cutting off near us it wouldn't take much for this to come back if guidance identifies another SW to amplify.  Most guidance just changed its mind with the wave that is now some weak POS on Saturday...it's not crazy if they find another little vort and say...ok lets amp this one up instead...the trough is there...the mid and upper level energy is there...it just needs something to come along at the right time to amplify at the surface.  I want to see what happens today on guidance.  

[mitchnick]

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are patterns within seasons for sure.  But some of this is perception bias and selection bias.  For example...your theory this year only works if you ignore the first real snow of the season that missed up just to the north in early December and gave parts of southern/central PA 3-6".  Of course places further north would point to that snow in November in upstate NY but do we toss that because the winter pattern had not set in yet?  Then yes...later in December those 2 events hit south of us...but I got 5" from a storm during that period also.  Which one is the one that becomes the real pattern setter?  It's easy in hindsight but that is biased.  

I am not denying your point about patterns within seasons.  There are real tendencies for a seasonal pattern to produce repeating results.  In a year like 1996 and 2010 that's great for us.  Most years...not.  But the issue is...this isn't very useful for predictive measures because of 2 things.  1) You don't know ahead of time when the pattern is starting.  2) You don't know during the pattern when it's going to end.  Every pattern breaks at some point.  Right now we don't know if that is going to be with this next storm (hopefully) or maybe March or maybe the pattern lasts into Spring and it's too late for us by the time it ends...but without knowing when it ends we can't just say every storm is going to do the same thing.  

I don't care who believes me frankly. But for this forum, it often works. And there's nothing anyone can say that changes my mind. Lol