Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[clskinsfan]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Now I like that gfs run way more than 12z. Less complicated and not missing to our NE. Yes lower ceiling but as is also less likely to completely screw us over

I disagree. It is far more likely to jump us completely. 

[bncho]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Now I like that gfs run way more than 12z. Less complicated and not missing to our NE. Yes lower ceiling but as is also less likely to completely screw us over

You just like it because you gained 6” 

[TSSN+]

Probably a good idea to mention no model is pretty close to the final solution yet. 

[baltosquid]

At hr 90 in the plains. Check the trends on the vort, moving west out of the lakes area to its current modeled spot. Part of me wonders if we want that to go even further now? Instead of every piece getting close but no cigar, maybe let some of the pieces spread out to the east and allow that westernmost part to do things itself? Idk just stupid speculation

[Weather Will]

Let's see if the GEFS at 18Z is better.  It was pretty bad at 12Z.

[clueless]

Good thing it’s the GFS. Next. 

[RevWarReenactor]

1 minute ago, clueless said:

Good thing it’s the GFS. Next. 

 

So neither the Euro or GFS show a big storm. 

 

But ya know, no big deal. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, RevWarReenactor said:

 

So neither the Euro or GFS show a big storm. 

 

But ya know, no big deal. 

Stfu 

[MickeyTim6533]

Just now, RevWarReenactor said:

 

So neither the Euro or GFS show a big storm. 

 

But ya know, no big deal. 

but but but the CMC.....

[high risk]

Very concerned that if much of the snow falls during the daylight hours Sunday, it will really struggle to accumulate in very marginal low-level temperatures.   Rates will be critical to our chances of a measurable snowfall.

[Chris78]

9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I disagree. It is far more likely to jump us completely. 

Totally agree with you. This looks alot like a storm we don't mention in these parts lol

 

[Paleocene]

3 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

 

So neither the Euro or GFS show a big storm. 

 

But ya know, no big deal. 

Lol the GFS just dropped like two feet of sweet digital snow on the eastern shore

 

 

 

I would qualify that as a big storm 

[Solution Man]

17 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

 

nope

You trust that right

[paxpatriot]

Folks, don’t like to banter in this thread…but can we please stop quote-posting the trolls? Signed, most of the board who has them on ignore…

[BlueDXer75]

2 minutes ago, paxpatriot said:

Folks, don’t like to banter in this thread…but can we please stop quote-posting the trolls? Signed, most of the board who has them on ignore…

How do we do that? Thank you. 

[mitchnick]

Didn't see the AiGfs mentioned. Apologize if it was. Anyway, colder run, primary stays further south of 12z run, but a faster mover so qpf is down. 

[SnowenOutThere]

22 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I disagree. It is far more likely to jump us completely. 

You’re in a slightly different spot than me or some other members of the forum. You can gamble more with a primary secondary interaction thanks to having a colder base climo and being located north. Frankly, not even NOVA should really want to bet on that happening 

22 minutes ago, bncho said:

You just like it because you gained 6” 

This is a true and valid point but think of it this way. I am often the warning shot for nova much like you guys are the warning shot for Fredrick and points north. If I am getting completely skunked by a miller B it shows who’s next in line to get shafted. Meanwhile, with a setup as the 18z gfs had it you have less upside yes, but way more wiggle room 

[TSSN+]

Gefs looks better than 12z. Someone with better maps confirm? 

[SnowenOutThere]

Frankly, if you were chasing some of the Euro Ai runs with a foot plus for the forum from a miller B and that’s why the gfs was disappointing you’re delusional. Not saying we can’t get that scenario to work someday but I would never, ever, take the low chance it has of verifying over a higher percent but lower max storm like the GFS output

[RevWarReenactor]

14 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Lol the GFS just dropped like two feet of sweet digital snow on the eastern shore

 

 

 

I would qualify that as a big storm 

You all are living in the land of delusion. Climo absolutely says no to this one. 

You might say thats trolling or banter. But It will turn out to be the best analysis in here come Sunday. Just wait. 

[Cobalt]

3 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

You all are living in the land of delusion. Climo absolutely says no to this one. 

You might say thats trolling or banter. But It will turn out to be the best analysis in here come Sunday. Just wait. 

Wow, climo says snow is the unlikely outcome for the Mid Atlantic? This is a truly shocking and bold call to stick with, I've been here thinking that snow is a sure bet around here.

[winter_warlock]

36 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Now I like that gfs run way more than 12z. Less complicated and not missing to our NE. Yes lower ceiling but as is also less likely to completely screw us over

 Now why would u like that run..?? unless u live well east of us.   Makes no sense unless u don't want it to happen

[winter_warlock]

8 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

You all are living in the land of delusion. Climo absolutely says no to this one. 

You might say thats trolling or banter. But It will turn out to be the best analysis in here come Sunday. Just wait. 

 Umm yeah thanks for the scoop ..

[RevWarReenactor]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

 Now why would u like that run..?? unless u live well east of us.   Makes no sense unless u don't want it to happen

Reminds me of the Jan 2022 storm. I think Atlantic City got 18 inches and DC got nothing. Not say thing thats the final outcome but certainly plausible for sure. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Personally, if we can end up with a fun, decent event that can drop a few inches or so of snow, that would be a win as far as I'm concerned.  Seems too many people are waaaaay too invested in some kind of upper end MECS to HECS event because some runs of the regular dynamic and the AI models showed that possibility lately...and then tear their hair out if they show anything less the next cycle, with assumptions about "trending" negatively and that's now guaranteed.  I think most or all of us here are wary enough to not expect the high end solutions at this point this far out, as much as that would be nice.  We don't need constant reminders about such things as "seasonal trend", "OMG, it's a Nina so we're screwed", "we never do well in Miller-B systems!", etc.  Just freaking follow and track the event until such time that it's either nothing much, or we end up having something real here that's at least pretty decent.  If you don't want to do that or can't deal with it, then at least keep the doom posting to yourself please.

[winter_warlock]

I like how one 18z run of icon and GFS and people say.   "models are going to the euro!".. it's just one 18z run and one of the 2 models is the crap icon.  People jump too quickly for a storm still over 100 hours away lol. Unreal

[rjvanals]

Euro Weeklies don't look great unfortunately 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Personally, if we can end up with a fun, decent event that can drop a few inches or so of snow, that would be a win as far as I'm concerned.  Seems too many people are waaaaay too invested in some kind of upper end MECS to HECS event because some runs of the regular dynamic and the AI models showed that possibility lately...and then tear their hair out if they show anything less the next cycle, with assumptions about "trending" negatively and that's now guaranteed.  I think most or all of us here are wary enough to not expect the high end solutions at this point this far out, as much as that would be nice.  We don't need constant reminders about such things as "seasonal trend", "OMG, it's a Nina so we're screwed", "we never do well in Miller-B systems!", etc.  Just freaking follow and track the event until such time that it's either nothing much, or we end up having something real here that's at least pretty decent.  If you don't want to do that or can't deal with it, then at least keep the doom posting to yourself please.

This 1,000,000%. 

[bncho]

12 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

You all are living in the land of delusion. Climo absolutely says no to this one. 

You might say thats trolling or banter. But It will turn out to be the best analysis in here come Sunday. Just wait. 

You could be 100% right. Hell, you could be the smartest poster here. But I wouldn’t want you here at all because you blame everything on everyone else and you’re just annoying.

 

[clskinsfan]

15 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

You’re in a slightly different spot than me or some other members of the forum.

Whether you are at UVA or Farifax you dont want what the GFS is showing. It would most likely jump you at either one of those spots as well. Although what is being depicted has been the norm lately. So it is what it is.