2026-2027 Super El Nino

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Any thoughts to why we still seem to be crashing hard in Phase 7 to COD/weak 8 for MJO? We saw this in 23/24 as well.

MJO 7 is the bridge between the super El Niño and the WPAC warm pool. So we get an extended +30C warm pool from the IO over to MJO 7 and Nino 4. It’s even possible that the 30C warm pool could expand closer to Nino 3.4 by later in the fall. Plus the +30C warm pool associated with the record +PMM to the north of Nino 1+2.

We began to see MJO 4-6 activity for the first time with a super El Niño in December 2015. As the warm pool expanded by the 2023-2024 super El Niño into the IO, we had record MJO 3-7 activity with a super El Niño. Multiple papers have bee published on this more active MJO from the IO into the WPAC. Previous events had seen the MJO go quiet in these passes during super El Niños through the 1997-1998 event. 

They even released a paper calling it dual forcing back in 2023-2024 due to how large the warm pool had grown.  All this extended oceanic heat that was released jumped the global baseline higher than the models forecast. So getting another baseline temperature jump only 3 years later will be a first for our modern climate. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Latest SOI: -35.29

In other news, this El Niño has become severely east-based. There are confirmed, historic anomalies of +7.2C off the coast of Peru in region 1+2, which is a new all time record, surpassing both 1997 and 1982. And as @Gawx predicted, very rapid warming of the SSTs in region 3.4, OISST ONI: +1.2C, RONI: +0.73C. With this major WWB ongoing, it would not surprise me if we are into a high-end moderate/strong Nino (RONI/ONI) by the end of this month

Yea, I don't even think it's worth sweating those details....usually when it gets this powerful, it's safe to just concede warmth on par with an east-based event. But there are other factors that could foster the development of a favorable stretch(es), especially later in the season.

[snowman19]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I don't even think it's worth sweating those details....usually when it gets this powerful, it's safe to just concede warmth on par with an east-based event. But there are other factors that could foster the development of a favorable stretch(es), especially later in the season.

IMO, this one is a lock for a top 3 super El Niño event, possibly even surpassing the last 4 super events. I also agree with Paul Roundy and Ben Noll that it stays east-based like 1997, but like you said, the east-based structure may not end up being important 

[LakePaste25]

56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I don't even think it's worth sweating those details....usually when it gets this powerful, it's safe to just concede warmth on par with an east-based event. But there are other factors that could foster the development of a favorable stretch(es), especially later in the season.

Yeah I don’t expect a wall to wall pac jet extension the entire season, otherwise LAX might end up underwater.

Looking at 97-98 here, there were a couple of 5-7 day wintery stretches in december, january maybe 1 week tops, and a couple more stretches in Feb and a couple more in March. Jan was the least snowiest at 9.5” while December had close to 30”. Feb/March 15-20” each. Below normal season but obviously not 0 or even top 10 lowest. 

[LakePaste25]

The issue I do have with 97-98 is a lot of these wintery stretches were so marginal with 30-35 degree days. Factor in 2-3 decades of warming and you get the idea. 

[michsnowfreak]

17 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

The issue I do have with 97-98 is a lot of these wintery stretches were so marginal with 30-35 degree days. Factor in 2-3 decades of warming and you get the idea. 

But its not apples for apples. The sensible weather will not follow the same exact script. For instance, both 2015-16 & 2023-25 had more severe cold shots than 1997-98. Indeed 1997-98 was a very murky, gray winter so the lows were insane warm even during the colder stretches. Also, 1990s winters here were warmer than both 2000s and 2010s winters. Same at Buffalo (assuming thats near you).  

[FPizz]

12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

But its not apples for apples. The sensible weather will not follow the same exact script. For instance, both 2015-16 & 2023-25 had more severe cold shots than 1997-98. Indeed 1997-98 was a very murky, gray winter so the lows were insane warm even during the colder stretches. Also, 1990s winters here were warmer than both 2000s and 2010s winters. Same at Buffalo (assuming thats near you).  

I think he is fairly close to Erie PA.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

IMO, this one is a lock for a top 3 super El Niño event, possibly even surpassing the last 4 super events. I also agree with Paul Roundy and Ben Noll that it stays east-based like 1997, but like you said, the east-based structure may not end up being important 

Yea, it's going to be warm in the mean. The question is will we have some respites from the jet...my early hunch is that we will.

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it's going to be warm in the mean. The question is will we have some respites from the jet...my early hunch is that we will.

Fwliw, Cfs2 is entertaining for February and March. December on the last run verbatim ain't so bad either for the Mid Atlantic, but dry up near you. The beauty of the Cfs2 is that it changes 4x/day, so everybody has a good run at some point of the day. Lol

Starting in December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026060400&fh=6

[LakePaste25]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Fwliw, Cfs2 is entertaining for February and March. December on the last run verbatim ain't so bad either for the Mid Atlantic, but dry up near you. The beauty of the Cfs2 is that it changes 4x/day, so everybody has a good run at some point of the day. Lol

Starting in December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026060400&fh=6

Those blues in the South do not necessarily equate to winter-like cold that would be supportive of snow outside of the appalachians. The blues are also there because it’s very stormy with the strong extended pacific jet feeding into the active southern stream. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Fwliw, Cfs2 is entertaining for February and March. December on the last run verbatim ain't so bad either for the Mid Atlantic, but dry up near you. The beauty of the Cfs2 is that it changes 4x/day, so everybody has a good run at some point of the day. Lol

Starting in December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026060400&fh=6

I feel like we could see some patterns set up that resemble the CANSIPS output..maybe even the entire month of January or February, but not the seasonal mean.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said:

Those blues in the South do not necessarily equate to winter-like cold that would be supportive of snow outside of the appalachians. The blues are also there because it’s very stormy with the strong extended pacific jet feeding into the active southern stream. 

Yea, that’s not cold. Solar irradiance from the roaring STJ 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, that’s not cold. Solar irradiance from the roaring STJ 

Like I said, December ain't so bad. Here are temps.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026060400&fh=6

February and definitely March look better taking into consideration seasonal temps for the period. But as I said, entertainment purposes at this point.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026060400&fh=8

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026060400&fh=9

[snowman19]

[LakePaste25]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Like I said, December ain't so bad. Here are temps.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026060400&fh=6

February and definitely March look better taking into consideration seasonal temps for the period. But as I said, entertainment purposes at this point.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026060400&fh=8

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026060400&fh=9

Modelology vs meteorology. 

Where exactly is the cold air coming from if it’s all above normal north of Tennessee? It has to travel from somewhere on the way down right? Cold air can’t come from the pacific at California’s latitude. Which would mean at minimum, near or slightly below normal temps north of TN as it travels down? 

Yeah. i don’t buy wall to wall torch up here either. Maybe it’s 80/20, 70/30 or whatever. But the main reason that it’s blue in the South while dark red over the Great lakes is due to the uniformity of the airmass. 40s is well above normal for the Grest Lakes, but below normal for Louisiana. 

 

 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Modelology vs meteorology. 

Where exactly is the cold air coming from if it’s all above normal north of Tennessee? It has to travel from somewhere on the way down right? Cold air can’t come from the pacific at California’s latitude. Which would mean at minimum, near or slightly below normal temps north of TN as it travels down? 

Yeah. i don’t buy wall to wall torch up here either. Maybe it’s 80/20, 70/30 or whatever. But the main reason that it’s blue in the South while dark red over the Great lakes is due to the uniformity of the airmass. 40s is well above normal for the Grest Lakes, but below normal for Louisiana. 

 

 

Lower pressures =lower temps with lowest temps reflected near/under lowest pressures...meteorology. 

Why soooooo serious anyway? I said for entertainment purposes. 

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Modelology vs meteorology. 

Where exactly is the cold air coming from if it’s all above normal north of Tennessee? It has to travel from somewhere on the way down right? Cold air can’t come from the pacific at California’s latitude. Which would mean at minimum, near or slightly below normal temps north of TN as it travels down? 

Yeah. i don’t buy wall to wall torch up here either. Maybe it’s 80/20, 70/30 or whatever. But the main reason that it’s blue in the South while dark red over the Great lakes is due to the uniformity of the airmass. 40s is well above normal for the Grest Lakes, but below normal for Louisiana. 

 

 

 With the typical mean +PNA, even Canadian air that’s mild for them and the N US can come down rapidly enough to be BN once it gets to the south. Example: 20 F in MSP, which is AN for there in winter, can come down fast enough to limit modification and still bring BN 30F to the south. Some of the coldest winters in the SE were when it was mild in Canada. Canadian air with a straight shot down here is always cold for us. The coldest anomalies in a +PNA are often in the SE with New England to the Lakes often NN.

[LakePaste25]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 With the typical mean +PNA, even Canadian air that’s mild for them and the N US can come down rapidly enough to be BN once it gets to the south. Example: 20 F in MSP, which is AN for there in winter, can come down fast enough to limit modification and still bring BN 30F to the south. Some of the coldest winters in the SE were when it was mild in Canada. Canadian air with a straight shot down here is always cold for us. The coldest anomalies in a +PNA are often in the SE with New England to the Lakes often NN.

I agree, but verbatim the model run posted is not a classic +PNA/-EPO look that we tend to see in weaker Ninos. There may be periods of it, however which could be factored in the ensemble mean. I just wouldn’t take those blues in the South as “winter-like cold that supports snowfall most of the month.” 

 

 

[GaWx]

 Today’s OISST update (for June 3rd) doesn’t have the dramatic 0.09C rise of each of the last 2 days, but it still rose 0.04C to +1.229C.The implied RONI equivalent is ~+0.7C:

*Corrected for typos*

[GaWx]

20 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I agree, but verbatim the model run posted is not a classic +PNA/-EPO look that we tend to see in weaker Ninos. There may be periods of it, however which could be factored in the ensemble mean. I just wouldn’t take those blues in the South as “winter-like cold that supports snowfall most of the month.” 

 

 

Winter storms in the South outside of the mountains are for the most part somewhat freaky events. Thus, due to the low frequency, our snowiest or iciest winters are often from mainly just one major (or series of) winter storms at most. Examples: late Jan of 1940, Feb of 1952, mid Feb of 1958, 12/31/1963, 2/9-10/1973, 3/1-2/1980, 3/24/1983, late Jan of 1987, 1/7-8/1988, mid Jan of 1992, the ice storm of late Jan 2005, and Dec of 2018. All of these were during El Niño and these were enough to make them wintry.

 So, El Nino’s on average produce for wintry precip despite often being mainly from just one storm on the right track (usually Gulf to off SE Coast) at the right time (when cold enough air to the N/NW being tapped into enough).

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Winter storns in the South outside of the mountains are for the most part somewhat freaky events. Thus, due to the low frequency, our snowiest or iciest winters are often from mainly just one major (or series of) winter storms at most. Examples: late Jan of 1940, Feb of 1952, mid Feb of 1958, 12/31/1963, 2/9-10/1973, 3/1-2/1980, 3/24/1983, late Jan of 1987, 1/7-8/1988, mid Jan of 1992, the ice storm of late Jan 2005, and Dec of 2018. All of these were during El Niño and these were enough to make them wintry.

 So, El Nino’s on average produce for wintry precip despite often being Mei Lu from just one storm on the right track (usually Gulf to off SE Coast) at the right time (when cold enough air to the N/NW being tapped into enough).

Yep. And if you scroll thru the slp maps for each month, you can easily imagine at least one good hit down your way. January, and especially February, even show cold air/ridging pressing south along the Appalachians starting in Virginia.  Here's a link to December:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2026060406&fh=6

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I saw this Early 2026-2027 Snowfall Insight on LinkedIn:

[mitchnick]

54 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I saw this Early 2026-2027 Snowfall Insight on LinkedIn:

How dare they ruin the reputation of LinkedIn with 1 random post. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Can someone say +AO? (For the 3rd warm season in a row, since the Solar Max)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

May be one of the stronger -PNA's on record in the long range, near the 19-20th  

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, FPizz said:

I think he is fairly close to Erie PA.

Same with Erie. And NYC for that matter. 1990s winters were warmer than 2000s or 2010s winters. The globe may have warmed in that timeframe but winters in the Lakes/Northeast were colder the next 2 decades after the 1990s. So any parallels to the 1997-98 nino I certainly wont be worried about a verbatim weather scenario with temps a degree or 2 warmer, thats not how the weather works. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I saw this Early 2026-2027 Snowfall Insight on LinkedIn:

Going to be a snowy winter in Vegas and Miami!

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Modelology vs meteorology. 

Where exactly is the cold air coming from if it’s all above normal north of Tennessee? It has to travel from somewhere on the way down right? Cold air can’t come from the pacific at California’s latitude. Which would mean at minimum, near or slightly below normal temps north of TN as it travels down? 

Yeah. i don’t buy wall to wall torch up here either. Maybe it’s 80/20, 70/30 or whatever. But the main reason that it’s blue in the South while dark red over the Great lakes is due to the uniformity of the airmass. 40s is well above normal for the Grest Lakes, but below normal for Louisiana. 

 

 

This is a good point. But even then, its not steady temps across the board. Its still colder in the mean in the north than the south. 

Which means blues in the south arent necessarily great for snow, but reds in the north arent prohibitive of snow either.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is a good point. But even then, its not steady temps across the board. Its still colder in the mean in the north than the south. 

Which means blues in the south arent necessarily great for snow, but reds in the north arent prohibitive of snow either.

It seems to be warming near the oceans, on the East coast and West coast, but not as much in the Midwest, where it's flat.

I remember global predictions in the 90s had a +PDO/El Nino pattern projected for decades forward, but it has not happened that way. Maybe some of the EC warmth is associated with +AMO decadal. 

[buckeye]

11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is a good point. But even then, its not steady temps across the board. Its still colder in the mean in the north than the south. 

Which means blues in the south arent necessarily great for snow, but reds in the north arent prohibitive of snow either.

Yea, a  -5 departure for the winter in a place like Atlanta  and southern apps probably implies some much below normal periods in there that if timed up with a nino-style stj can give them their freak snows.   Meanwhile, during those same periods we're cold but watching the juice slide under us.     Likewise, when a place like Columbus or Detroit sees a +5 departure for the winter in a nino, chances are that the cold periods are dry and the warm is wet.     

But like i mentioned in an earlier post, super ninos can definitely pack a surprise or two.