2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I agree, and have stated that there will be cold air lurking. The conus will definitely be flooded with pacific air at times. With a super amped STJ there will also be plenty of storms. Just need to link up the cold with one of the storms. It’s pretty simple but impossible to forecast at these lead times. I think it’s a safe bet somone in the east gets this to workout. It’s happened in every other super Nino. Those storms tended to be more regional unlike March 93. And something similar could easily be on the table


.

February 1983 and January 2016 were not regional and were both much better than the overhyped March 1993. Name me any other storm with record setting 30 inch snowfall at both Allentown and JFK.   Even December 1992 without any significant snow here was far more extreme than the so-called "super storm. "

 

 

 

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hey, I'm not picky...I'll settle for January-February 1983, December 23, 1997 or January 7th, 2024...TBH the 2016 blizzard is the redux I'd pass on.

The 2016 Blizzard was the Michael Jordan of snowstorms the GOAT of all superblizzards!

 

9 hours ago, FPizz said:

2nd worst winter ever in my location in NJ outside of the NYC.  5.5"   01-02 was the worst with 4".  96-97 - 01-02 was the worst 6 year stretch for me.  00-01 was good, but the others were all bad, all different enso's

01-02 was the worst winter of my lifetime but followed by a wonderful April with the bluest skies I've ever seen and a great summer!

 

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If NYC doesn't get more snowfall during the coming season than they did in 1997-1998, then I'll hand my site over to @MJO812and dissapear.

If you hand over your site to him your site will disappear. I picture him pressing a button that he has no idea what it will do and POOF!

 

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the strongest El Nino ever partly because we have the warmest oceans ever, which means we have more prominent competing forces than ever.

If we ever get to control the climate this is the first thing I would fix, with massive underwater turbines to mix up the water which would cause it to cool. 

 

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

These October Ural to Scandinavian blocks have become the new normal especially in October in the low Arctic sea ice era since 2007.

What caused the Kara block that led to the historic January 2016 super blizzard?

 

On 10/19/2026 at 6:39 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Not sure who or why anyone would have pre cancelled last winter. Or even this one for that matter. There are no analogs for this Nino. Based on other supers, above normal temps and precipitation are a lock. But the exact outcome in an area where one blockbuster can make a winter is impossible to forecast. JFK with 30.5” had above normal seasonal snow in 2016 off of just one storm.


.

Their historic 40/40 season. The only other place on the east coast that had that was Norfolk, VA in 1965-66 another strong el nino.

 

On 10/19/2026 at 8:56 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe latter January...I think we all agree that the seasonal mean will be tough sledding, no pun intended lol

In my experience January 26th is the cut off point. Even in the historic season of 1977-78 that's when we had our first big snow.

 

On 10/18/2026 at 11:30 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

November doesn't have to be warm to have a warm December. 2021 and 2023, which were the 2nd and 3rd warmest Decembers in the East (after 2015), were near to slightly below average in November. And don't forget about 2012, which had one of the coldest Novembers in the East (after Hurricane Sandy), before turning warm in December.

In November 2012 we had our earliest ever double digit snowstorm!

 

On 10/17/2026 at 6:32 PM, FPizz said:

Snow wise, the 90s were the worst decade of my life even with the best season ever

Not by a long shot lol the 1980s were much worse. The 1990s had two historic seasons.

 

On 10/18/2026 at 12:18 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

We had 3 great [post-volcanic] seasons (1992-93, 1993-94, and 1995-96). Imagine how much worse it would have been without Pinatubo.

I buy Pinatubo for the summerless 1992 but how do you explain the record setting 1993 and 1995 summers? And Pinatubo wasn't some supervolcano it was only a VEI 6 eruption. 

 

 

 

 

 

On 10/18/2026 at 6:44 AM, bluewave said:

The actual winter temperatures were significantly colder during the 1990s than since the warmer baseline shift in 2015-2016.

 

Options Selected for plot 

Variable: Temperature
Type: Average Anomaly
Season: Dec to Feb
Number year(s) in composite: 21
Years in composite: 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 -2015 -2016 -2017 -2018 -2019 -2020 -2021 -2022 -2023 -2024 -2025
Climatology base period: 1961-1990
Contour Interval: default

 

 

 

The 70s and 80s were much colder than the 90s with far less snow.  The point being that you dont need it to be very cold to snow.  As a matter of fact it can be too cold to snow.

 

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

Indeed as it on today’s Euro Weeklies gets down to +14 in early Nov, weakest run yet. Nothing earth shatteringly weak but interesting, regardless:

Today’s Euro Weeklies 10 mb zonal mean wind prog is even weaker than yesterdays, which had its lowest at 14 m/s, with it down to 12 m/s:

[GaWx]

The latest CFSv2 10 day mean prog for RONI for Oct is +2.5 and for Nov is +2.75. The current record high for any month since 1950 is the +2.5 of Jan of 1983. Judging by the blue lines all being at or below +2.75, this graph’s +2.75 mean for Nov is likely heading down in future 10 day runs. @40/70 Benchmark’s prediction for RONI is looking pretty good:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt

[MJO812]

Great video. This El Nino might screw up the warm forecasts.

https://youtu.be/4gP_R1OGeQ8?is=EA6MCfhV6sw9i-6k

[so_whats_happening]

10 hours ago, Terpeast said:

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/2112536814758121610?s=46
 

warmest subsurface in east pacific is up to 92 F where its 12c above normal. Crazy

I don't know why but something feels off about that. 80W would be right on the immediate coastline which would maybe make the most sense right at the absolute surface not subsurface of 50-100m. Also we have seen a +12c subsurface before  the only thing that has changed between 1997 and now is the average. On scale this is pretty inline with 1997 as for absolutes it is a whole different story.

[so_whats_happening]

Here is roughly the last month and a half update. At this time of the +12c we were at Thanksgiving. Roughly about a month ahead of where we are in equivalency to 1997.

 We should know in the next 2 weeks how this works out but have this feeling we are done with significant warmings but rather how long this holds on compared to typical sst's which flatline now until about mid to late December.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

 

The 70s and 80s were much colder than the 90s with far less snow.  The point being that you dont need it to be very cold to snow.  As a matter of fact it can be too cold to snow.

 

The 1990s winters here were WARMER than winters of the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 2000s and 2010s. Yes, the decade of the 1990s was colder than the intra decade block of 2016-2026. But actually the 90s still saw very slightly less snow than '16-26 too. And of course, there was a slew of mild to very mild winters in the 1930s-1950s. With the obsession some have with cc, lets not forget that weather also always has gone in cycles. When the snowy 2010s completed, the 1990s stood as the tamest winters here since the 1950s. So I get tired of the excuse that the nino of 97-98 was during some ice age climate lol.

As for the old adage "its too cold to snow". Technically thats not true, however the cold is a very common contributor to suppression. Last winter was ranked a severe winter here due to its lasting cold and snowpack, but suppression absolutely stole our chance for above avg snowfall. 

[bncho]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Great video. This El Nino might screw up the warm forecasts.

https://youtu.be/4gP_R1OGeQ8?is=EA6MCfhV6sw9i-6k

i can't believe my (A) eyes.

[GaWx]

 

12 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Great video. This El Nino might screw up the warm forecasts.

https://youtu.be/4gP_R1OGeQ8?is=EA6MCfhV6sw9i-6k

Anthony,

 Maybe this person saw this latest 10 day CFSv2 mean for Feb ‘27 (Nino): 80% of CONUS BN; much AN E Canada:

 No other mid Oct 10 day mean for Feb back to 2012 has had anything even closely resembling this extreme couplet, and a cold dominant Feb US/much warmer than normal E Can have been on EVERY 10 day mean since they started going out that far in mid August! 
 
 Check out how much Feb of ‘27 differs from all other 10 day mean forecasts made in mid-Oct for other Febs back to the start of the CFSv2:

 

2026: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can:

 

2025: 0% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

2024 (Nino): 0% of CONUS BN; AN E Can

 

2023: 33% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2022: 6% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2021: 20% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2020: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2019 (Nino): 5% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2018: 20% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2017: 3% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2016 (Nino): 4% of CONUS BN; AN E Can

 

2015 (Nino): 0% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2014: 4% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2013: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2012: 15% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 Feb: % BN Conus; E Can anom

‘27 (Nino): 80% BN US; much AN E Can

’26: 1% BN US; BN E Can

’25: 0% BN US; BN E Can

’24 (Nino): 0% BN US; AN E Can

’23: 33% BN US; BN E Can

’22: 6% BN US; BN E Can

’21: 20% BN US; BN E Can

’20: 1% BN US; BN E Can

’19 (Nino) 5% BN US; BN E Can

’18: 20% BN US; BN E Can

’17: 3% BN US; BN E Can

’16 (Nino): 4% BN US; AN E Can

’15 (Nino): 0% BN US; BN E Can

’14: 4% BN US; BN E Can

’13: 1% BN US; BN E Can

’12: 15% BN US; BN E Can

—————————————

Analysis of above: 

-Feb of ‘27 80% BN US vs only 33% (‘23) for next closest! Avg of only 7.5% BN US for 2012-26 and a mere 2% BN for the four El Niño cases!

-The other 4 Nino Febs had no more than 5% BN US! The two strongest Nino Febs had US BN of 0% (‘24) and 4% (‘16)! So, there’s virtually no resemblance to ‘27.

-BN in the SE US virtually nonexistent on any of 2012-2026 with most of them mild. But in stark contrast, 2027 has a very cold SE!

-Feb of ‘27 has by far the warmest E Can. Only 2 others had any degree of AN (much less intense than ‘27) and they were the 2 strongest El Niños (‘24 and ‘16).

——————

 In closing, Feb of ‘27 has been very persistently (for 2 months!) showing on the CFSv2 a highly unique (among all Febs on record) extreme couplet of a cold dominant CONUS and extreme blocking/very warm E Canada. The CFSv2 has been trying to tell us something it never has and though I’m not at all saying to trust it, I am suggesting that it not be dismissed.

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

What caused the Kara block that led to the historic January 2016 super blizzard?

The modoki-style forcing out near the Dateline following the shutdown of the MJO 5 forcing which drove the record warmth in December. The hand-off of the forcing from the MC to the DL caused the whole pattern to invert from December to January. This allowed the NP low to back off in the Pacific from late January into early February. 
 

 

[snowman19]

OISST RONI up to over +2.8C

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

OISST RONI up to over +2.8C

The BOM RONI values in the East getting close to +6 are more in line with the ONI numbers.

 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

[/url]

Gotta love having to move the Y axis. 12c is just absurd. The amount of extra heat energy contained in that will move the entire global temperature up again.


.

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, bncho said:

i can't believe my (A) eyes.

Watch it. He does a great job explaining the winter. Also watch weather with Travis.

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like as we head into late October the expression of ENSO becomes more of split North Pacific low between the Bering Sea and Southern California.

It will be interesting to see if these centers can eventually merge into one giant low as we head into November and December.

If some semblance of a split remains, then it would be indicative of the background 500mb pattern which has been keeping the PDO negative instead of leading to a +2.00 PDO. 

 

Near record upper low off of Southern California matches with the extreme east based forcing leading to the ridge shifting into the East later in October. 

 

[forkyfork]

21 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i want someone to tell me how we manage to stay cold enough long enough for a snowstorm to happen on the east coast 

 

[LakePaste25]

This will be fun to score. I think it’s way too cold of a forecast.

 

[SnowGoose69]

18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would argue the guys speaking in absolutes that there won't be are crazy.

We all know not one non neutral winter recently has really acted like it should relatively to what we’d see 25-50 years ago.  I’ve said a few times nothing would surprise me this winter.  We could see a December 89/00 redux or a February 2023 redux despite it being a strong El Niño and I wouldn’t be surprised anymore.   

[snowman19]

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

This will be fun to score. I think it’s way too cold of a forecast.

 

A near normal December is not happening, but neither is a +10..Acutally anybody would take normal snowfall at this point.

[LakePaste25]

14 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

A near normal December is not happening, but neither is a +10..Acutally anybody would take normal snowfall at this point.

I disagree. There’s a decent chance that someone between the upper Midwest and Northeast is going to get a +10 December. Sure, not everyone, and it all depends on where the MJO is at in a month. 

[Keith Central PA]

5 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I disagree. There’s a decent chance that someone between the upper Midwest and Northeast is going to get a +10 December. Sure, not everyone, and it all depends on where the MJO is at in a month. 

If you look at December 2015..it was a dry month, which I doubt it will be this year..There was just a few days below normal...several days in the 60's and 70's. That's really extreme if you ask me.

[BlizzardWx]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

Anthony,

 Maybe this person saw this latest 10 day CFSv2 mean for Feb ‘27 (Nino): 80% of CONUS BN; much AN E Canada:

 No other mid Oct 10 day mean for Feb back to 2012 has had anything even closely resembling this extreme couplet, and a cold dominant Feb US/much warmer than normal E Can have been on EVERY 10 day mean since they started going out that far in mid August! 
 
 Check out how much Feb of ‘27 differs from all other 10 day mean forecasts made in mid-Oct for other Febs back to the start of the CFSv2:

 

2026: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can:

 

2025: 0% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

2024 (Nino): 0% of CONUS BN; AN E Can

 

2023: 33% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2022: 6% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2021: 20% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2020: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2019 (Nino): 5% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2018: 20% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2017: 3% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2016 (Nino): 4% of CONUS BN; AN E Can

 

2015 (Nino): 0% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2014: 4% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2013: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2012: 15% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 Feb: % BN Conus; E Can anom

‘27 (Nino): 80% BN US; much AN E Can

’26: 1% BN US; BN E Can

’25: 0% BN US; BN E Can

’24 (Nino): 0% BN US; AN E Can

’23: 33% BN US; BN E Can

’22: 6% BN US; BN E Can

’21: 20% BN US; BN E Can

’20: 1% BN US; BN E Can

’19 (Nino) 5% BN US; BN E Can

’18: 20% BN US; BN E Can

’17: 3% BN US; BN E Can

’16 (Nino): 4% BN US; AN E Can

’15 (Nino): 0% BN US; BN E Can

’14: 4% BN US; BN E Can

’13: 1% BN US; BN E Can

’12: 15% BN US; BN E Can

—————————————

Analysis of above: 

-Feb of ‘27 80% BN US vs only 33% (‘23) for next closest! Avg of only 7.5% BN US for 2012-26 and a mere 2% BN for the four El Niño cases!

-The other 4 Nino Febs had no more than 5% BN US! The two strongest Nino Febs had US BN of 0% (‘24) and 4% (‘16)! So, there’s virtually no resemblance to ‘27.

-BN in the SE US virtually nonexistent on any of 2012-2026 with most of them mild. But in stark contrast, 2027 has a very cold SE!

-Feb of ‘27 has by far the warmest E Can. Only 2 others had any degree of AN (much less intense than ‘27) and they were the 2 strongest El Niños (‘24 and ‘16).

——————

 In closing, Feb of ‘27 has been very persistently (for 2 months!) showing on the CFSv2 a highly unique (among all Febs on record) extreme couplet of a cold dominant CONUS and extreme blocking/very warm E Canada. The CFSv2 has been trying to tell us something it never has and though I’m not at all saying to trust it, I am suggesting that it not be dismissed.

What could be interesting is if el nino forcing indeed is summarily shoved eastward could the typical warm anomaly that sits over the Great Lakes be pushed far enough east that we get more cold air into the US like the CFS is showing? We could also get the moisture from having an active storm track into the south like you would expect in strong el nino. So I am not saying I am buying it, but just wondering out loud on what it will actually mean. Does shifting the forcing east linearly shift the pattern? That isn't always the case either. 

[LakePaste25]

8 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

If you look at December 2015..it was a dry month, which I doubt it will be this year..There was just a few days below normal...several days in the 60's and 70's. That's really extreme if you ask me.

Hence my post about it being “somewhere between the Upper Midwest and Northeast.” A wet coastal pattern doesn’t preclude this happening elsewhere especially the upper midwest, and that region is so cold that they don’t need 60s and 70s to do that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://www.easternmassweather.net/2026/10/el-nino-grows-historically-powerful.html

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Some convergence from the guidance on a very early PV disruption this season, being driven by an absurd Urals-Scandanavian block. I'm taking this for the gift that it probably is for predictive skill: Seasons that have an early significant PV disruption like this usually have a second. Second, the westerly QBO has a tendency towards more a stable PV. So a vortex recovery into Dec with extreme warmth, then prob a mid-late season PV disruption again to round out the end of winter before flipping extremely warm again.

This.

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

What could be interesting is if el nino forcing indeed is summarily shoved eastward could the typical warm anomaly that sits over the Great Lakes be pushed far enough east that we get more cold air into the US like the CFS is showing? We could also get the moisture from having an active storm track into the south like you would expect in strong el nino. So I am not saying I am buying it, but just wondering out loud on what it will actually mean. Does shifting the forcing east linearly shift the pattern? That isn't always the case either. 

Absolutely that can happen with how E based it is progged to be! This is especially the case for Feb as the CFS has been showing. I’m expecting a very mild Dec and a mild to NN first half of Jan. Then the fun times could really get going starting late in Jan and especially in Feb and possibly continuing through early March.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The 2016 Blizzard was the Michael Jordan of snowstorms the GOAT of all superblizzards!

More like Greg Oden up here.