michsnowfreak Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 6 hours ago, mitchnick said: What was their prediction at this point for last winter if you know? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: just a wee bit off on that one! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Its all part of his schtick. Troll posts that almost never have anything to do with the weather. You have a board full of people whove followed the weather for decades and he actually thinks people take any of his one-liners seriously. isn't your area ground zero for torching in nino winters? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 On 3/19/2026 at 3:24 PM, michsnowfreak said: A strong Nino 3 years after a strong Nino? Ill believe it when I see it. haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 Are we really using recency bias for the CPC maps? This will be a +3C or higher Nino. 100% likelihood we see the typical super nino temp distribution regardless if the CPC was off the last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 On 3/9/2026 at 6:10 PM, michsnowfreak said: We won't know the reality for months, but i would be SHOCKED if the 2026-27 el nino is strong. You just dont get strong events like that 3 years apart. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 On 11/13/2025 at 4:25 PM, forkyfork said: above normal temps, below normal snow. ez call On 10/29/2025 at 6:44 PM, forkyfork said: all your poor kids will never see a winter like we had growing up. sad On 9/8/2025 at 11:12 AM, forkyfork said: i can't wait to lowpost in january when we barely get to freezing 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 hope you enjoyed our last ever ku <3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 It looks like there are now two super Nino banter threads. Can these be merged? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 23 minutes ago, forkyfork said: hope you enjoyed our last ever ku <3 I don't know about my area, but you know for dang sure that ain't true for your area after you just had one in THIS past February and y'all can still cash in on ninas. So that wasn't even factual trolling c'mon dude, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: As much as those in weather circles shit on seasonal guidance for being biased towards stock ENSO, we can say the same thing about the CPC forecasts. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 W Pac has really been cooling down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 6 hours ago, forkyfork said: +4 coming and they think they have a chance Where? What period? F or C? Snowfall forecast? Not that details matter in a weather forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 43 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I don't know about my area, but you know for dang sure that ain't true for your area after you just had one in THIS past February and y'all can still cash in on ninas. So that wasn't even factual trolling c'mon dude, lol same ol shtick year after year... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: isn't your area ground zero for torching in nino winters? It can torch away all 3 months and it will still be colder than an average winter in your area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 50 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: same ol shtick year after year... I just wanna know why man, lol But maybe that's a fruitless question! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: Had to go back to March to find me saying I was doubtful of a strong el nino. "we wont know what its like for months". I believe early March to late August - 5.5 months, qualifies as "months". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: hope you enjoyed our last ever ku <3 You and others said that years ago. That failed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 21 Author Share Posted August 21 Another arctic low at -400dm today. <5100dm! Since the Solar Max peak we have been getting this a lot May-Sept (24-26). A lot of the "patterns" seem consistent actually - warm start to Summer locally then near average or cooler ending. July-Aug being wettest months locally. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 21 Author Share Posted August 21 10 hours ago, mitchnick said: What was their prediction at this point for last winter if you know? You know as well as I do that their forecasts underperform. I think they use mostly models, and you can actually utilize other methods (PDO, AMO, Summer N. Atlantic SSTAs, Summer arctic 500mb), to do better. As least that's how it's verified in the last 15 years. Keep in mind though that they did do really well in 15-16 and 23-24. Two of their best forecasts. but yeah, the possible fluctuation is pretty big. 18-19 was stock ENSO for a weaker Nino and it verified opposite. They had near average last Winter in the Rockies and some places were +10F for DJFM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 21 Author Share Posted August 21 8 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm getting this vibe from these outlooks that they're more interested in the N Atlantic/index correlation than the PNA to this point in time. Not sure why that lean as both it and the +PNA are at least linearly-neg correlated. The 2009/2010 season tucked a short lived but potent warm ENSO into the tail end of 2009 into the first quarter of '10. That was a winter whence the NAO became so excessive it jammed all events into the SE/MA, while up this way in NE ended up with suppression depression In a neutral ENSO year, a +PNA correlates more negatively with NAO during JAN/FEB anyway. But 2010 perhaps "over" ideally situated that result. There may have been other hemispheric things gong on that constructively interfered and drove a synergistic wild hyper response with that look that season/year. It was nuts! That one "snowmaggedon" storm looked as though it was really a hybrid between any cyclone at all, together with a mass-restoring forced nodal trough pinned there by the coupled -NAO state. fascinating. I believe at least a handful of official seasonal snow totals down there exceeded climo at sites around SNE and NNE - but not sure of that. Still, getting to within reach of N climates, in principle, evinces the point. It was like their 2015. But ...as 2015 demos... +ENSOs don't always do that. That's why I think the other was a bit of a "positive bust". It may be worth considering though that it can happen once, it can happen again. Leaning more E Can/NW Atl block with that weird neg tube of heights tunneling underneath down stream like Will was mentioning.. heh. It sort of reminds me of 'too much of a good thing' and you guys taxing the love lorn to get even more euphoric reach-arounds. For now, I guess it being so early in the game ...best to just go with +volatility for having lower heights in the TV whilst blocking resides N in the means - should that prevail. I'll tell ya though ... this will be an interesting autumn in the guidance. I think a lot of attention is paid to the Pacific when ENSO may actually effect N. America directly If you look at the cold season correlation with Nino 1+2 there is actually a slightly higher max in N. America, north of the Great Lakes, than the NPH area in the N. Pacific It will be interesting to see what happens this Winter in this regard as the PDO/overall 500mb state of the Pacific is so different from El Nino atm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 26 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think a lot of attention is paid to the Pacific when ENSO may actually effect N. America directly If you look at the cold season correlation with Nino 1+2 there is actually a slightly higher max in N. America, north of the Great Lakes, than the NPH area in the N. Pacific It will be interesting to see what happens this Winter in this regard as the PDO/overall 500mb state of the Pacific is so different from El Nino atm. That is nuts....you just recreated my extra tropical Pacific composite. I hadn't even viewed that correlation map, either. Matches it 100%. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: I don't know about my area, but you know for dang sure that ain't true for your area after you just had one in THIS past February and y'all can still cash in on ninas. So that wasn't even factual trolling c'mon dude, lol When forky gets serious he is untouchable, weather wise. Other than that your point is well taken. Thank you, M, for the ‘factual trolling’ term. I’ve now found a descriptive synonym for political debates. As always …… 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
annunciated Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Had to go back to March to find me saying I was doubtful of a strong el nino. "we wont know what its like for months". I believe early March to late August - 5.5 months, qualifies as "months". There comes a point until you have to question if trolling is the only source of entertainment for 'em, because it appears as if it were so. Sad, if true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 On 8/19/2026 at 10:15 AM, EasternLI said: Looks like this latest WWB was the strongest of the summer. Does anyone have the latest forecast H85 zonal wind anomaly forecast for 5N to 5S? None of the ones that I usually access are updated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 Finally starting to see elements of the 2023, 2015, and 1997 late August into September patterns show up in the analog composite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 6 hours ago, bluewave said: Finally starting to see elements of the 2023, 2015, and 1997 late August into September patterns show up in the analog composite. That's a crazy list of analog years with no rhyme or reason if you just consider Enso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Does anyone have the latest forecast H85 zonal wind anomaly forecast for 5N to 5S? None of the ones that I usually access are updated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Does anyone have the latest forecast H85 zonal wind anomaly forecast for 5N to 5S? None of the ones that I usually access are updated... This link has it from the Cfs2 around 2/3's down the page. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html There's also a link above the 850 forecast for additional info: https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 Gefs just finished updating for 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now