2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

September finished quite similarly to a blend of the past four El Nino Septembers (2015, 2018, 2019, 2023) nationally.

God, I hope that grouping fails spectacularly moving forward....I'd just assume drive out to the desert's of Albuquerque and shot-gun a cactus than experience anything akin to the past four El Niño events during this coming season.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

October is not ending up like 2018, 2019, 2023.. They were cold in the Rockies and Midwest. Looks like opposite pattern is setting up this Oct

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

October is not ending up like 2018, 2019, 2023.. They were cold in the Rockies and Midwest. Looks like opposite pattern is setting up this Oct

Ensembles continue with the +NAO too.

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

God, I hope that grouping fails spectacularly moving forward....I'd just assume drive out to the desert's of Albuquerque and shot-gun a cactus than experience anything akin to the past four El Niño events during this coming season.

-2023 isn't a great analog because

1. its RONI peak of +1.4 pales in comparison to where 26 is headed and even where it already is

2. It was much less E based (cross between E based & basinwide) than 26 is progged to be

3. The only similarly strongly -PDO of any Niño of the last 150 years was 1951-2 and it’s RONI peaked at only +1.0

—————
-2019 is hardly an analog because it wasn’t even El Niño as it peaked at only +0.3 and was W based

———

-2018 isn’t a good analog because it peaked at only +0.8 and was slightly W based

————

-2015 is the only of these that’s a good analog but it was pretty much basin-wide, not E based

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/