2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Typhoon Tip]

Oh, that looks like a smoking gun for CC adaptation in that temperature outlook. 

Not sure ... is that a straight model to publication? - or is it modified by forecaster(s) opinion en route to the public  

Because it looks damn well like they took the canonical linear El Nino correlation and then just moved it warmer by a click or two.   So instead of warm north cool south, you end up with very warm north and more neutral/average S.  

If. so... can't see I blame them.  I mean, we play this head game in here as responsible weather and climate minded people, where we are not deniers about CC ... we just play some avoidance and hedge away from it meaning warmer snow challenging winters ...haha.  At least a reticence to do so.  Anywho they don't have that luxury.  They necessarily need to be as close to accurate as they can be. 

[bluewave]

Significantly warmer summer across the CONUS than 2023, 2015, and 1997. 
 

 

[GaWx]

 The 10 day/40 run CFSv2 mean for Feb has gone from this near coldest on record of CFSv2 forecasts from SE to C Plains and cold overall much of US (Aug 7-16 runs):

 

To this just 4 days later (Aug 11-20 runs): still cold esp SE to S Plains but not nearly as cold there with 2-5F BN instead of 5-8F BN and also not as cold most other areas of the C to E US:

 

I figured that because I posted the extremely cold maps that I need to post those not as cold in the spirit of objectivity as opposed to just posting the runs I like the most.

I’ll continue to follow because it’s fun/interesting even though the CFSv2 forecast value is quite limited for 6 months out (more for entertainment).

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

+4 coming and they think they have a chance

For someone allegedly concerned about cc, you and the rest of the worry warts sure seem to revel in the warmth. Lol

[michsnowfreak]

Just now, mitchnick said:

For someone allegedly concerned about cc, you and the rest of the worry warts sure seem to revel in the warmth. Lol

Its all part of his schtick. Troll posts that almost never have anything to do with the weather. You have a board full of people whove followed the weather for decades and he actually thinks people take any of his one-liners seriously.

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, mitchnick said:

What was their prediction at this point for last winter if you know?

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

just a wee bit off on that one!

[forkyfork]

15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its all part of his schtick. Troll posts that almost never have anything to do with the weather. You have a board full of people whove followed the weather for decades and he actually thinks people take any of his one-liners seriously.

isn't your area ground zero for torching in nino winters?

[forkyfork]

On 3/19/2026 at 3:24 PM, michsnowfreak said:

A strong Nino 3 years after a strong Nino? Ill believe it when I see it.

haha

[LakePaste25]

Are we really using recency bias for the CPC maps? This will be a +3C or higher Nino. 100% likelihood we see the typical super nino temp distribution regardless if the CPC was off the last winter. 

[forkyfork]

On 3/9/2026 at 6:10 PM, michsnowfreak said:

We won't know the reality for months, but i would be SHOCKED if the 2026-27 el nino is strong. You just dont get strong events like that 3 years apart. 

[Cobalt]

On 11/13/2025 at 4:25 PM, forkyfork said:

above normal temps, below normal snow. ez call

 

On 10/29/2025 at 6:44 PM, forkyfork said:

all your poor kids will never see a winter like we had growing up. sad

 

On 9/8/2025 at 11:12 AM, forkyfork said:

i can't wait to lowpost in january when we barely get to freezing

 

[forkyfork]

hope you enjoyed our last ever ku <3