2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[annunciated]

24 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Even more impressive is +10c spanning almost 2,500 miles. And steady over long periods of time. It would take quite a bit of energy to produce that unnaturally. 

Interpreting from ARMOR3D's measurements, not only does it span actually about 3,500 miles but also likely has the width of roughly 3-4 degrees of latitude (2N-2S) and a depth of 25 meters on average. The energy required to heat a specific area like that to +10C is ridiculous. If it's anywhere in the >10^16 joule range, which I believe it is, good luck producing that unnaturally.

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The earth's #1 motive is self-preservation, and the primary resistance to this objective is prohibitive warmth.

I dont know how many of you are aware of this but for 85% of this planet's history there was no ice anywhere on the planet. That being said yes the planet self regulates and as an example the Amazon even controls its own rainfall. The planet will be fine even either way the question is will humanity?

Human beings are not the only creatures to alter the planet and ACC is nowhere close to the worst thing that's ever happened to this planet. Blue green algae aka phytobacteria altered the entire composition of the atmosphere and without them we wouldn't be here. The K-T event that ended the dinosaurs and 75% of all life on the planet was far worse than ACC is and happened in a much shorter time frame and the planet recovered just fine. As a matter of fact ACC can be thought of as the revenge of the dinosaurs as it may cause the climate to return to what it was like before the K-T event by literally burning their remains!

[raindancewx]

Going to be very interesting to see if we get 'normal' El Nino conditions here. So far the Summer here has been about as hot as ever recorded, with near record low precipitation as well. 2023 was even drier in the Summer, but we're running hotter. Summer has been very close to 1953, 1958, 2023 as a blend, all the sort of drought plagued, -PDO, El Nino, very +AMO shit years locally.

It's actually been very interesting - for the past month little batches of rain showers have formed late evening almost every night. But they are widely scattered and have only brought drizzle to the city most nights. A lot of the terrible monsoon years don't even have the showers form. But they typically perform best for rainfall late afternoon to about 8 pm. We've seen showers develop in the 8 pm to 2 am time frame and then sizzle out, which is unusual here for formation time.

The Atlantic has really warmed up quite a bit relative to averages over the past 2-3 weeks. I think we will actually see a brief period of decent hurricane season activity in September.

My hottest average temperature El Nino Summers are these winters: 1994, 2023, (2003 borderline El Nino), 1958, 2018, 1953, 2002.

We tend to get fluky out-of-season heavy snow events following very hot and very dry Summers here. 1994-95 snowed a lot in April, 1953-54 in November, 2002-03 in March, 1958-59 in March, 2023-24 in November. Several of these also see good snow in the main winter too. My guess is the MJO will set up to favor bigger storms nationally in something like an Oct 15-->Nov 30-->Jan 15-->Mar 1-->Apr 15 fashion for major events given the local Summer data supports unusual concentration of heavy snow events in Nov/Mar/Apr so far, more than the winter.

[GaWx]

The latest few CFSv2 4 day means have reduced the Feb cold in the SE substantially:

 

 Compare that to how cold it was on the 4 day mean just 2.5 days prior: