2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s also a challenge when you aren’t speaking with someone in person. Many not written cues can get lost on these forums. I am sure if we all met in person things would be different.

Also goes to how many interactions these days occur online vs in person prior to social media and the internet. So we don’t have the benefit of nonverbal cues which are common in actual life. 

Even with all of issues that pop up from time to on these forums, the benefits outweigh any negatives. Weather models and statistics used to be very limited before the age of the internet.

I can remember the old Alden Difax machines that was the only way to get weather models. Plus there were no freely available databases containing past reanalysis products with 500 mb patterns  and temperatures for any given month or period. 

 

 In the 1980s soon after obtaining my first job in my field of study, my first big purchase was for a washer/dryer. I was so excited.

 But I was even more excited with my 2nd buy, an even bigger one: what my friends called a “weather machine”. This “machine” was a combo of the following: a pretty high end short wave radio to get radio facsimile sounds, an Epson dot matrix B/W printer, and a radio facsimile decoder that was sent to me from England. This was a dream come true.

 The output wasn’t that good as weak or interfered signals were common, but this was the only way I could get my own feed of wx data!

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Vigorous but respectful discussion/debate about the relevant subject makes for the best threads. Echo chambers are boring. It’s beneficial to respectfully debate alternative viewpoints.

 Intense debates relying on factual evidence, critical thinking, and sound reasoning instead of emotional appeals or personal attacks are the most desirable.

 Also, being open-minded to change one’s views is beneficial to these threads. Posters displaying intellectual humility, reading others’ posts thoroughly, and being willing to update their views when presented with better evidence is desirable for quality threads.

@bluewave

 Edit: Many of the worst threads at this BB were in the Politics forum because little of the above was the case in most threads. Hardly anyone was open minded about anything and personal attacks were common. Trolling was common. It was absolutely awful due to hardly any intelligent debate. Fortunately, this thread is far better!

Intellectual humility has always been my strong point as I'm always humiliating myself in board discussions. So I'm with you there! 

[donsutherland1]

Some statistics for the Southeast concerning snowstorms during strong El Niño winters are below. Atlanta may have among the best chance of seeing a measurable snowstorm this upcoming winter.

[annunciated]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some statistics for the Southeast concerning snowstorms during strong El Niño winters are below. Atlanta may have among the best chance of seeing a measurable snowstorm this upcoming winter.

I hope Athens can get some of that magic too, lol.

[EasternLI]

Does the AAO signal anything to us (NH)? I don't remember. I want to say no, but I feel like I've heard that it did somewhere. Just wondering because it's been very positive through most of our summer. Which is the SH winter. Even getting above 4SD for a bit at the tail end of June. 

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s also a challenge when you aren’t speaking with someone in person. Many not written cues can get lost on these forums. I am sure if we all met in person things would be different.

Also goes to how many interactions these days occur online vs in person prior to social media and the internet. So we don’t have the benefit of nonverbal cues which are common in actual life. 

Even with all of issues that pop up from time to on these forums, the benefits outweigh any negatives. Weather models and past statistics for various stations used to be very limited before the age of the internet.

I can remember the old Alden Difax machines that was the only way to get weather models. Plus there were no freely available databases containing past reanalysis products with 500 mb patterns  and temperatures for any given month or period. 

 

Ive said it before and ill say it again. I do not agree with alot of the stuff you post, but you always remain respectful so I have no problem agreeing to disagree on some things. This is the huge difference between you and snowman. 

[EasternLI]

These are big claims, don't see why not though TBH.

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, annunciated said:

I hope Athens can get some of that magic too, lol.

I agree. 1972-73, 1982-83, and 2015-16 had 1 or more days with measurable snowfall in Athens.

[roardog]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

These are big claims, don't see why not though TBH.

 

 

 

When measuring enso strength you’re talking tenths of a degree making a difference as far as records. No one can convince me that we know the strength of an El Niño from the 1700s. Even 1877-1878 is questionable down to tenths of a degree IMO. 

[mitchnick]

47 minutes ago, roardog said:

When measuring enso strength you’re talking tenths of a degree making a difference as far as records. No one can convince me that we know the strength of an El Niño from the 1700s. Even 1877-1878 is questionable down to tenths of a degree IMO. 

Yep. Easy to make a claim when there's no way to know its accuracy. But it's great for clicks!

[annunciated]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yep. Easy to make a claim when there's no way to know its accuracy. But it's great for clicks!

It's why the notion from some people that this is the Nino of the Millenium (250-1000 years in some Xwitter post) is just crazy, and yet again, it's great for clicks.

[EasternLI]

23 minutes ago, roardog said:

When measuring enso strength you’re talking tenths of a degree making a difference as far as records. No one can convince me that we know the strength of an El Niño from the 1700s. Even 1877-1878 is questionable down to tenths of a degree IMO. 

Yeah, that's a totally valid point. Any records from that long ago are questionable at best. I know there are reanalysis methods but still. Wish there was a better normalized way to look at it. Not as tied to temperature anomalies. Especially if rising global temperatures are a concern. I get that RONI is attempting to do that, but not sure how I feel about that yet either. What I do know is that out of the entire JMA archive of VP 200 anomalies. This event (the current 30 day mean obs posted below) is already now more impressive looking than anything in their entire record. Which goes back to the 40's. That includes 15-16, 97-98, 82-83, 72-73 or anything else. Actually everything else in that data. At least as it stands right now and during this part of the year. That, to me, is making this event stand out much more than any temp anomalies ever could. It's fascinating to watch something extreme like this unfold. As an aside, I do not have high hopes for winter here locally. Very strong enso either + or - generally sucks historically here where I am. I will firmly believe that until proven otherwise because I've already lived through it. Extreme events are always interesting though, and this el nino is definitely that.

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

When measuring enso strength you’re talking tenths of a degree making a difference as far as records. No one can convince me that we know the strength of an El Niño from the 1700s. Even 1877-1878 is questionable down to tenths of a degree IMO. 

so the strongest nino in almost 300 years. damb