2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[soadforecasterx]

14 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Just log into X and follow the 5 guys he always posts.  He was pretty much their X feed on here.  Solved it for you.  

 Problem is i dont have an social media. I am old school and like to stay away from all that stuff unfortunately 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

 Problem is i dont have an social media. I am old school and like to stay away from all that stuff unfortunately 

You mean "fortunately."  Lol

[FPizz]

12 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

 Problem is i dont have an social media. I am old school and like to stay away from all that stuff unfortunately 

If you follow people who you want to read posts from it isnt bad at all.  

[michsnowfreak]

36 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Just log into X and follow the 5 guys he always posts.  He was pretty much their X feed on here.  Solved it for you.  

To be fair, when it gets colder than avg or snowy, posts from anywhere around the world are fair game. Last winter we would see something in French or Spanish tell us the cold wont last. 

[michsnowfreak]

18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He really does know his stuff and has valuable insights....but I think unfortunately many get distracted from a great deal of the value that he offers by the obvious emotional struggles.

I have no problem seeing opposing viewpoints, biases, etc. Bluewave is a great example. I often disagree with many things he says, but he is never disrespectful. Keep on doing you bluewave. Thats how to run a discussion forum on the internet. But snowman was very rude, mean-spirited, and would hurl insults. He may have a lot of knowledge, but so do many people in here. His posts will not be missed by me. 

[mitchnick]

27 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have no problem seeing opposing viewpoints, biases, etc. Bluewave is a great example. I often disagree with many things he says, but he is never disrespectful. Keep on doing you bluewave. Thats how to run a discussion forum on the internet. But snowman was very rude, mean-spirited, and would hurl insults. He may have a lot of knowledge, but so do many people in here. His posts will not be missed by me. 

I hate all sides and do my best to generate vitriol against me and between other posters.

[forkyfork]

57 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have no problem seeing opposing viewpoints, biases, etc. Bluewave is a great example. I often disagree with many things he says, but he is never disrespectful. Keep on doing you bluewave. Thats how to run a discussion forum on the internet. But snowman was very rude, mean-spirited, and would hurl insults. He may have a lot of knowledge, but so do many people in here. His posts will not be missed by me. 

nope. this is science and there is only right or wrong. you are wrong and don't deserve respect or kindness

[rclab]

11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

nope. this is science and there is only right or wrong. you are wrong and don't deserve respect or kindness

ALL HAIL THE …… well you know …… as always ….

 

[TriPol]

Where are the fooking mods? You guys got a beef with each other? Take it somewhere else. Stop ruining our experience in reading about a once in a lifetime weather event.

[LakePaste25]

Time to dust off the key and open back up to OT? 

anyways, we are getting to about +2.7

WWBs will keep this going up through the end of the month.

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

51 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

nope. this is science and there is only right or wrong. you are wrong and don't deserve respect or kindness

The only one who doesnt deserve respect is you. The biggest troll on the board who adds NOTHING about science, weather, or anything other than trolling. I wasnt referring to myself - I rarely responded to snowman. Everyone else who did got his vitriol, tantrums and insults.

[LakePaste25]

 

[mitchnick]

43 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

 

There's a TONI and a RONI? No wonder a met degree is 4 years. You need that many just to remember the acronyms. 

[brooklynwx99]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

There's a TONI and a RONI? No wonder a met degree is 4 years. You need that many just to remember the acronyms. 

TONI is just regular ONI (traditional), no idea why he calls it that lmao

[PhiEaglesfan712]

This is how the carry-over el nino scenario would look like. This is actually an AI model that (correctly) predicted this very strong el nino. This shows a carry-over (moderate) el nino in 2027-28, before transitioning to a la nina in 2028-29.

[LakePaste25]

26 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

This is how the carry-over el nino scenario would look like. This is actually an AI model that (correctly) predicted this very strong el nino. This shows a carry-over (moderate) el nino in 2027-28, before transitioning to a la nina in 2028-29.

Much of this depends on how much ocean heat is lost from the El Niño convection that’s occurring. In theory we run out of warm water to sustain El Niño in such conditions. It has to come from somewhere. 

[bluewave]

The 500 mb pattern during June and July across the Northern Hemisphere was the opposite of past developing super El Niño events. 

Had more in common with +SOI/ -PDO /La Niña June and July periods. 

Seasonsal forecast models from before the summer started missed this pattern.

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 500 mb pattern during June and July across the Northern Hemisphere was the opposite of past developing super El Niño events. 

Had more in common with +SOI/ -PDO /La Niña June and July periods. 

The seasonal forecast models from before the summer started missed this pattern.

 

 

 

Any chance you can use the same scale on the 500mb maps so as to compare apples to apples?

P.s. not to say there will be a difference 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 500 mb pattern during June and July across the Northern Hemisphere was the opposite of past developing super El Niño events. 

Had more in common with +SOI/ -PDO /La Niña June and July periods. 

Seasonsal forecast models from before the summer started missed this pattern.

 

 

 

Yeah, this Fall/Winter will be interesting to see if NPH trough develops. It hasn't really happened since 15-16. +SOI correlation was a match the last 2 Summers as well. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It looks like the streak of -SOI days has ended

11 Aug 2026	1016.05	1013.30	6.86	-21.05	-22.10
10 Aug 2026	1014.90	1012.95	2.00	-22.57	-22.32

 

I've noticed over the years that when an ENSO variable wanes, other parts of its correlation pick up (more +PNA pattern for the next 13 days).. weird. 

[EasternLI]

Yeah, will be fascinating to see how the north Pacific responds through this event. Given the deep -PDO state of the atmosphere it is encountering. El nino is certainly ramping up. AAM about to take another step up from the upcoming MJO cycling and associated WWB. Getting impressive too with a forecast mean remaining above 3 SD. If we look at the world view. We can see the SH jet has been, and is forecast to continue to be very impressive. Along with El nino conditions really getting comfortable in the tropics now as of late. A little bit of El nino's influence appears to be trickling into the NH now as well. The forecast has that continuing also and increasingly so as we get towards the tail end of the month. So envision a slow take over, if you will. As we go through the fall. That's my guess. Will be interesting to see if that's how it plays out. I think that makes some sense given the underlying resistance in the Pacific. I personally doubt that resistance will ultimately be too much for this event. Not one of this magnitude, this one's a behemoth. But that is a battle worth watching in the north Pacific for sure. Would still love to see a recurving typhoon or 2 as well but there's time for that.

 

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, will be fascinating to see how the north Pacific responds through this event. Given the deep -PDO state of the atmosphere it is encountering. El nino is certainly ramping up. AAM about to take another step up from the upcoming MJO cycling and associated WWB. Getting impressive too with a forecast mean remaining above 3 SD. If we look at the world view. We can see the SH jet has been, and is forecast to continue to be very impressive. Along with El nino conditions really getting comfortable in the tropics now as of late. A little bit of El nino's influence appears to be trickling into the NH now as well. The forecast has that continuing also and increasingly so as we get towards the tail end of the month. So envision a slow take over, if you will. As we go through the fall. That's my guess. Will be interesting to see if that's how it plays out. I think that makes some sense given the underlying resistance in the Pacific. I personally doubt that resistance will ultimately be too much for this event. Not one of this magnitude, this one's a behemoth. But that is a battle worth watching in the north Pacific for sure. Would still love to see a recurving typhoon or 2 as well but there's time for that.

 

From the mby point of view, the last month has been wet in central PA, with lots of T'Storms. Definitely wetter than the past several years and not Niña'ish.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

From the mby point of view, the last month has been wet in central PA, with lots of T'Storms. Definitely wetter than the past several years and not Niña'ish.

July has been super wet since 2017. Wettest month of the year imby. 2026 followed the same pattern.