2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Arctic ice area has been doing relatively well!

 This has quite possibly been helped by the coldest late May-early Aug on record per DMI 80+ N Arctic mean temp since records started in 1958:

the cold has been concentrated near the pole while the mid latitudes have been on fire

 

[jaxjagman]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

+10 months have been fairly common during super El Niño events since 1997-1998. Areas adjacent to the +10s also had very high temperature departures. Regions with the most overlapping high departures across multiple months finished the warmest for DJF.

But since all seasonal models default to general climatology due to long range forecast uncertainty, none of the months were forecast ahead of time to my knowledge.

The most common locations have been from the Upper Plains and Midwest across to the East. 

December 2015 was the most extreme for the aerial coverage and magnitude of the 10+ area. As early as November 22, 2015, the EPS weeklies were showing just moderately above average temperatures across the Northern Tier for December. So the long range models gave no indication of what occurred. 

 

+10 months since 1997-1998

Dec 1997 Upper Plains to Upper Midwest

Jan 1998 Upper Plains to East

Feb 1998 Upper Plains to East

Dec 2015 Much of East

Feb 2016 Upper Plains

Mar 2016 Upper Midwest

Dec 2023 Upper Midwest

Feb 2024 Upper Midwest

 

 

 

This dont ATM seem to look anything like 2015-2016  Strong NINO.

The strong Nino during this time started early in 2014,during 2015 the Walker Circulationn got funky and just as much the Hadley.You saw much stronger trade winds blowing off  South America.Compared to 82-97,those NINOs were Central and East Based,2015 was central and west based

[Keith Central PA]

3 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

I think the warmth will unfortunately be overwhelming for people near I95. You don't get a nino this strong without at least a 10+F month, and most likely all the storms will lack adequate blocking because the NAO will be very positive as well.

I wouldn't say all,most of them. Feb 83 and Jan 16 showed you in a strong nino you can get blizzards..also nothing too, like 73 and 98.

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

+10 months have been fairly common during super El Niño events since 1997-1998. Areas adjacent to the +10s also had very high temperature departures. Regions with the most overlapping high departures across multiple months finished the warmest for DJF.

But since all seasonal models default to general climatology due to long range forecast uncertainty, none of the months were forecast ahead of time to my knowledge.

The most common locations have been from the Upper Plains and Midwest across to the East. 

December 2015 was the most extreme for the aerial coverage and magnitude of the 10+ area. As early as November 22, 2015, the EPS weeklies were showing just moderately above average temperatures across the Northern Tier for December. So the long range models gave no indication of what occurred. 

 

+10 months since 1997-1998

Dec 1997 Upper Plains to Upper Midwest

Jan 1998 Upper Plains to East

Feb 1998 Upper Plains to East

Dec 2015 Much of East

Feb 2016 Upper Plains

Mar 2016 Upper Midwest

Dec 2023 Upper Midwest

Feb 2024 Upper Midwest

 

 

 

The only time was December 15 with outrageous warmth...Yes it will be warmer than normal this year , but +10?

 

[mitchnick]

Updated NMME hasn't caved on the generally cooler look with this month's run vs last like the Euro. Top 2 pics are DJF temps from last month and today. Bottom 2 are JFM same comparison. 

P.s. Note I said "generally." Some spots up to the NE not. Also, wet along the east coast and inland some.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=apcpna_multimonth_nmme&runtime=2026080800&fh=6

[Keith Central PA]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Updated NMME hasn't caved on the generally cooler look with this month's run vs last like the Euro. Top 2 pics are DJF temps from last month and today. Bottom 2 are JFM same comparison. 

P.s. Note I said "generally." Some spots up to the NE not. Also, wet along the east coast and inland some.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=apcpna_multimonth_nmme&runtime=2026080800&fh=6

I think with an el nino off the charts that would surprise everybody

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

I think with an el nino off the charts that would surprise everybody

The fact that seasonal modeling continues to cool over the last 3 runs gives winter weenies hope.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

I think with an el nino off the charts that would surprise everybody

Maybe the El nino will start cooling off by winter.

[mitchnick]

22 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

I think with an el nino off the charts that would surprise everybody

I should have mentioned as well, this hasn't been a textbook pre-Nino summer so far, though it appears to be heading that way now. Why should we expect a textbook Nino response this winter? Idk, just a thought. Plenty we don't know.

[MarcmmKU]

31 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The fact that seasonal modeling continues to cool over the last 3 runs gives winter weenies hope.

As bluewave said none of the modelling will pick up on a 10 F + month until it's very very close to occuring. I'm expecting a torch month (almost certainly december), with january and february above normal by 5-6 F rather than 10. 

[annunciated]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

The fact that seasonal modeling continues to cool over the last 3 runs gives winter weenies hope.

Perhaps for us southerners and those in the Mid-Atlantic region, but we definitely need those cold shots from the polar jet to cooperate.

[LakePaste25]

Latest NMME mean

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, MarcmmKU said:

As bluewave said none of the modelling will pick up on a 10 F + month until it's very very close to occuring. I'm expecting a torch month (almost certainly december), with january and february above normal by 5-6 F rather than 10. 

Since it hasn't happened and last winter in the east/NE ended up colder than progged, nothing's in the bag.

[EasternLI]

Man this El Nino is getting really impressive already. VP 200 charts are in beast mode. These are 30 day means! Obs! Just blows 2023 out of the water. Starting to look more impressive vs 2015 even TBH. At least as far as compared to this same time period. Action centers even looking like pure textbook Nino too. Which is pretty cool to see on a chart. This thing is a powerhouse, no question. MC is even shut down.

 

 

[EasternLI]

I mean, the MJO is currently crossing the MC. Yet, suppression is remaining firmly in place through that. It's not everyday that happens. It's still slated to interact with the Nino right after mid month. Another big WWB is likely inbound.

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Since it hasn't happened and last winter in the east/NE ended up colder than progged, nothing's in the bag.

Its funny how people know what the weather will be like months from now. That poster also seems too confident. 

What we do know is that the STJ will be strong. 

[LakePaste25]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its funny how people know what the weather will be like months from now. That poster also seems too confident. 

What we do know is that the STJ will be strong. 

agreed. We can only predict the aspects of El Niño that I like (such as the strong STJ), not the things I don’t like (the warmth). The warmth we will just have to wait and see. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Since it hasn't happened and last winter in the east/NE ended up colder than progged, nothing's in the bag.

Yes, because the ridge was out west....his point is that the ridges are always more intense than expected.

[ensonerd1233e343]

9 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

I think the warmth will unfortunately be overwhelming for people near I95. You don't get a nino this strong without at least a 10+F month, and most likely all the storms will lack adequate blocking because the NAO will be very positive as well.

ZERO evidence the nao will be + by the way

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

ZERO evidence the nao will be + by the way

In the seasonal mean? Plenty of evidence......Like 4 neg NAO seasons past 30 years, descending solar and +QBO. I'm not speaking in absolutes here, but it's pretty easy to make a case for that.

[ensonerd1233e343]

2 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

ZERO evidence the nao will be + by the way

Ok not zero esp early winter but certainly not very positive 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Updated NMME hasn't caved on the generally cooler look with this month's run vs last like the Euro. Top 2 pics are DJF temps from last month and today. Bottom 2 are JFM same comparison. 

P.s. Note I said "generally." Some spots up to the NE not. Also, wet along the east coast and inland some.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=apcpna_multimonth_nmme&runtime=2026080800&fh=6

Yea, it's a touch warmer up here, but NBD. Generally speaking, you are correct. Interesting trend.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

In the seasonal mean? Plenty of evidence......Like 4 neg NAO seasons past 30 years, descending solar and +QBO. I'm not speaking in absolutes here, but it's pretty easy to make a case for that.

Check out this NAO streak in February

2014  1.34
2015  1.32
2016  1.58
2017  1.00
2018  1.58
2019  0.29
2020  1.26
2021  0.14
2022  1.68
2023  0.92
2024  1.09
2025  1.60
2026  0.68

[ensonerd1233e343]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

In the seasonal mean? Plenty of evidence......Like 4 neg NAO seasons past 30 years, descending solar and +QBO.

Yea but not super + and 82 -83/ 15-16 featured those patterns and dc got a good event out of both of those

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

Yea but not super + and 82 -83/ 15-16 featured those patterns and dc got a good event out of both of those

Yea, I agree with that. I have been touting a lot more variability throughout the second half....but -NAO in the seasonal mean is a very tall task.

[LakePaste25]

I know NMME has an amplitude bias with ENSO but still…even if it were a half a degree cooler, that is still crazy. 

 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, because the ridge was out west....his point is that the ridges are always more intense than expected.

The point I was making was that last year proved that it can be colder than what models progged. I don't give a rat's arse why. It really can be colder than what seasonal models show. Of course, it can be warmer too. But if the warmer than normal isn't in your back yard, do you care? I sure don't. 

All that said, I  think most of us are here for the snow. 12/2015 was at least 10 degrees AN at BWI (my old stomping grounds), yet I had 29" in 1 storm the next month, the record snowfall at BWI. Did I care about December?  I think you know the answer. The only concern over temps I have is that it can limit snowfall. But with the right pattern, AN temps in January and February can overcome them. And I  know you're looking toward the January-March period as I am instead of met winter.

[ensonerd1233e343]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The point I was making was that last year proved that it can be colder than what models progged. I don't give a rat's arse why. It really can be colder than what seasonal models show. Of course, it can be warmer too. But if the warmer than normal isn't in your back yard, do you care? I sure don't. 

All that said, I  think most of us are here for the snow. 12/2015 was at least 10 degrees AN at BWI (my old stomping grounds), yet I had 29" in 1 storm the next month, the record snowfall at BWI. Did I care about December?  I think you know the answer. The only concern over temps I have is that it can limit snowfall. But with the right pattern, AN temps in January and February can overcome them. And I  know you're looking toward the January-March period as I am instead of met winter.

Arse?

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The point I was making was that last year proved that it can be colder than what models progged. I don't give a rat's arse why. It really can be colder than what seasonal models show. Of course, it can be warmer too. But if the warmer than normal isn't in your back yard, do you care? I sure don't. 

All that said, I  think most of us are here for the snow. 12/2015 was at least 10 degrees AN at BWI (my old stomping grounds), yet I had 29" in 1 storm the next month, the record snowfall at BWI. Did I care about December?  I think you know the answer. The only concern over temps I have is that it can limit snowfall. But with the right pattern, AN temps in January and February can overcome them. And I  know you're looking toward the January-March period as I am instead of met winter.

Yes, right under the trough...but that was essentially the only area on the globe where that happened, which is why it's so exceedingly rare at any given locale during modern times. That said, our area is due for a run of colder seasons relative to the west.

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

As bluewave said none of the modelling will pick up on a 10 F + month until it's very very close to occuring. I'm expecting a torch month (almost certainly december), with january and february above normal by 5-6 F rather than 10. 

It also goes beyond what phase the ENSO is in. But the warmest actual departure was +17.5 at FAR in the Feb 2024 super El Niño.

This past winter was a weak La Niña with each month from December to March producing a +10 at some stations in the CONUS. No seasonal model forecast this.

So we have a total of 17 months since the 2015-2016 super El Niño increased the baseline temperatures with +10 departures at some CONUS stations. None of the seasonal models forecast these either. Prior to 2015-2016 there were only a few +10 or greater months across the CONUS. These  were March 2012 and January 2006.

The list below includes the 17 months and the station close to warmest departures during each month. So there were numerous other stations over the+10 level during these months.

 

DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3

MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3

DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1

JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2

FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3

MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5