2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[bluewave]

We have to wonder what specifically has changed this time around more similar to 1997-1998 allowing such record breaking WWBs?

This was the missing feature during the 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 super El Niño events. Record WWBs are a key ingredient for more east based El Niños which have been missing since 1997-1998.

Just add the accumulated heat in the WPAC to the mix and we get an historic event like this one. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have to wonder what specifically has changed this time around more similar to 1997-1998 allowing such record breaking WWBs? This was the missing feature during the 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 weaker super El Niño events. Record WWBs are a key ingredient for more east based El Niños which have been missing since 1997-1998. 

 

 

I'm quite confident that it's related to the massive amount of OHC that has built up in the western Pacific basin.

[GaWx]

I know this Nino is headed toward 175 year record obliterating status. Be that as it may, is Maue being just a bit overly-dramatic for clicks/likes? It sounds so dramatic that it sounds like sarcasm:

 He originally said this way back in April:

 

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/weather-report/weather-expert-warns-this-years-mega-el-nino-could-be-strongest-since-1877/amp

 

 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm quite confident that it's related to the massive amount of OHC that has built up in the western Pacific basin.

We had a massive OHC build up prior to 2023-2024. But the WWBs were mostly focused near South America. They were much weaker where they are currently record breaking now.

The one change this time was the record WWB and general pattern at the start of the process last November into December associated with tropical cyclone Senyar was really extreme. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We had a massive OHC build up prior to 2023-2024. But the WWBs were mostly focused near South America. They were much weaker where they are currently record breaking now.

The one change this time was the record WWB and general pattern at the start of the process last November into December associated with tropical cyclone Senyar was really extreme. 
 

 

2023 was pretty out of sync from a solar perspective, though, so I do think there was some resistance that may not be readily apparent. This year we have the massive, unprecedented OHC working in conjunction with the favorable descent of solar cycle 25....perfect storm, so to speak.

This connection between descending solar and intense El Niño can be explained by the same "bottom up" theory that research originally incorrectly applied to the supposed link between solar max and +NAO, which has since been debunked by more modern work. Here is a schematic explaining why La Nina is favored during high solar, as was the case last winter.

 

Obviously, the inverse is true during descending solar, as is the case currently. More clouds leads to less evaporation and warmer sea surface temperatures, which results in weaker trades with stronger WWBs carrying moisture and warmer waters to the west. This weakens the Walker Cell, leading to stronger MC subsidence in the west, which reduces tropical convection.

 

The descending portion of solar cycle 25 has been met with the highest OHC in recorded history throughout the Pacific basin, hence we are seeing the strongest El Nino in recorded history materialize.

 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

I know this Nino is headed toward 175 year record obliterating status. Be that as it may, is Maue being just a bit overly-dramatic for clicks/likes? It sounds so dramatic that it sounds like sarcasm:

 He originally said this way back in April:

 

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/weather-report/weather-expert-warns-this-years-mega-el-nino-could-be-strongest-since-1877/amp

 

 

Yes, he is 100% making fun of all the X and bluesky posters being overly dramatic about everything

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

I know this Nino is headed toward 175 year record obliterating status. Be that as it may, is Maue being just a bit overly-dramatic for clicks/likes? It sounds so dramatic that it sounds like sarcasm:

 He originally said this way back in April:

 

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/weather-report/weather-expert-warns-this-years-mega-el-nino-could-be-strongest-since-1877/amp

 

 

To be fair, our last volcanic winter (post-Pinatubo) wasn't that severe. The period between 1991-96 was near normal temperaturewise, maybe a bit below normal. Once the 1997-98 el nino happened, things turned warmer permanently.

[csnavywx]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

I know this Nino is headed toward 175 year record obliterating status. Be that as it may, is Maue being just a bit overly-dramatic for clicks/likes? It sounds so dramatic that it sounds like sarcasm:

 He originally said this way back in April:

 

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/weather-report/weather-expert-warns-this-years-mega-el-nino-could-be-strongest-since-1877/amp

 

 

I've tried finding some ENSO reconstruction studies via proxies and can't find anything pointing to something this large. Still looking though. Prob safe to say 150y at this point. Might be realistically as long as 1kyr or something like that. A few recent papers have pointed towards increasing ENSO variance and amplitude with continued warming:

Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate | Nature Communications (2022)

 

 

 

And:

 

Global climate mode resonance due to rapidly intensifying El Niño-Southern Oscillation | Nature Communications (2025)

 

 

 

 

 

Strictly speaking, it is too early to say whether we are entering a phase of increased ENSO variability, much less resonance. The models here also use SSP5-85, which we are running under for emissions (but above for radiative forcing!). The takeaway, in my mind is to keep an open mind here about the *possibility* of a changing system. It's often common to see increased volatility as a state change approaches in non-linear systems like this (even if it's still decades away).

 

The million dollar question, as @BlizzardWx points out, for this season is how far east the warm pool gets and how far east convection gets rooted into this winter. I think it may be as far east as 120W, given that we're already ahead of 1997 (which got to 140W). We're in such rarified air here, it's hard to tell.

[csnavywx]

A review by GPT of the literature on 1k-10kyr (Holocene) ENSO:

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

A review by GPT of the literature on 1k-10kyr (Holocene) ENSO:

 

50 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Strictly speaking, it is too early to say whether we are entering a phase of increased ENSO variability, much less resonance. The models here also use SSP5-85, which we are running under for emissions (but above for radiative forcing!). The takeaway, in my mind is to keep an open mind here about the *possibility* of a changing system. It's often common to see increased volatility as a state change approaches in non-linear systems like this (even if it's still decades away).

We appear to be early phases of El Niño intensification coinciding with passing the 400 ppm mark. But at least we don’t have the giant Pangea landmass configuration anymore. So while past warmer climates experienced stronger El Niños, this current configuration with the Pacific as it is today probably wouldn’t support something as extreme in the future.

https://www.science.org/content/article/strong-el-niños-primed-earth-mass-extinction

Geological evidence suggests that before the eruptions, atmospheric CO₂ levels were likely about 400 parts per million (ppm), similar to the present day. As they began to tick up, the model showed profound El Niño events began to occur, says Alexander Farnsworth, a study co-author and paleoclimate modeler at the University of Bristol. Warm western waters at the equator spread east, preventing deep, cold waters from reaching the surface. Chaotic weather would have been unleashed worldwide, as happens during today’s El Niños. As CO₂ levels rose to 800 ppm and beyond, the El Niños grew more fearsome than any in history, lasting up to 7 years. “You’re seeing this incredible heat buildup, which just persists,” Farnsworth says.

https://eos.org/articles/mega-el-nino-may-have-led-to-major-mass-extinction-252-million-years-ago

The good news is that the configuration of our continents means that even if the ENSO cycle changes wildly, we won’t experience conditions nearly as brutal as those at the end of the Permian.

“The modern ocean is a much better buffer than before,” said Sun. “We have much more complex ecosystems.”