2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

If the model projections are correct this event will be the strongest in history by a wide margin. In my opinion this could actually make analog forecasting tougher, because even other super Ninos like 2015-2016, 1997-1998, 1982-1983 have a decent chance ending up a full 1C weaker than this event. I’d still use those years because they are the closest matches we have to this one, but this truly is a once in a lifetime Godzilla El Niño. I’m thinking we see almost a more extreme version of those super Nino years (eg even stronger STJ than 97-98), but I’m really not sure what the implications are. What are your thoughts? As a northern skier I’m not too happy about this developing Godzilla nino, but at the same time I’ve always been drawn to extreme weather events, so it will be interesting to keep following this and see how things play out regardless. This one has a good what 5 months left of strengthening and is already above 2C on the dallies for ENSO 3.4, 3C for ENSO 3, and 4C for ENSO 1.2, and the subsurface is much more impressive than even 97-98. So really no ambiguity here, this Nino already is a beast and will continue to break records.

I'd bet against this being once in a lifetime given the acceleration of CC....it's not a coincidence. 

[GaWx]

-July’s -SOI, which is headed toward sub -25, is going to end up the strongest on record by a wide margin. The current record July -SOI is 1965’s -21.0. The next lowest are at -19.8 (1905 and 1882).

 This will at least give support to the progged record rate of warming of 3.4 within 30 days being shown by several models between the means for July and Aug of 2026.

-The avg of June and July is also headed to a record low. The current record is the -23.8 of 1905.

-The beauty of the SOI is that it apparently isn’t biased to any significant degree in any direction by CC. Thus, this measure is one of the most objective ways to measure the strength of ENSO without having to worry about GW/looking at relative vs raw.

[snowman19]

This Nino is about to go nuclear:
 

^ IMO the subsurface peaks at or around +12C. And the EURO keeps getting stronger with the next WWB forecast for August, which is going to cause another DWKW:



Here comes the NH coupling:
 

The IOD is now officially positive:



And the “ELI” ENSO Longitude Index, which measures how far east or west the deep convection/forcing (standing wave) is, is now in 2nd place for the furthest east on record to date. Only, you guessed it, 1997, was further east and not by much. With the 30C isotherm east of the dateline, it’s virtually guaranteed that this year takes 1st place on that index soon for having the furthest east main tropical convective forcing:
 
 

 

ELI:

 

@LakePaste25
 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

The Pacific mid-latitude SSTs are also near the record for the date. This has helped to drive the daily -PDO closer to -2. So no surprise that global SSTs are at record levels also.

 

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^This is going to be about the best El Nino/-PDO analog we are ever going to get. You can probably also flip this Fall/Winters anomalies around in the future for La Nina/+PDO

[EasternLI]

Yeah, it's up up up and away with the AAM it sure seems. You can see what's been driving that so far too. The SH and the tropics. The tropics for obvious reasons. NH hasn't been involved. Feels like the PDO would have some kind of hand in something like that. The south pacific jet though has been impressive. It's also been slamming into the Andes mountains creating periods of +MT. Giving boosts to the AAM. A very slight relaxation after mid July, but the far right of the chart shows it's already firing up again. There was actually a decent -MT recently during that relaxation and AAM remained quite elevated anyway. Now it's climbing again and slated to continue for the same reasons as before. Wait until the NH starts getting more involved in addition to all of that. Models suggesting that could begin to occur as soon as mid August. Will be interesting to see if that timeframe gets delayed or not. 

 

[snowman19]

^ Holy GLAAM!

 

 

I may have underestimated the MEI. Given this extreme coupling, it may have already hit +2 this month, I was thinking August. Now, I think we rival, if not exceed the all time highest MEI on record of +2.9 (set during the 1982-83 super El Niño). Breaking the all time traditional ONI and RONI is a guarantee 

[raindancewx]

Last I looked, Jun-Jul precip totals here were tracking pretty close to 1982. That's generally a sign that pressure patterns and moisture levels are similar. Much colder/wetter than 2023 so far.

1	2023-07-29	T	0
2	1980-07-29	0.09	0
3	1958-07-29	0.36	0
-	1951-07-29	0.36	0
5	2011-07-29	0.39	0
6	1942-07-29	0.41	0
7	1995-07-29	0.52	0
8	2003-07-29	0.61	0
-	1947-07-29	0.61	0
10	1994-07-29	0.66	0
-	1993-07-29	0.66	0
12	1962-07-29	0.71	0
13	1977-07-29	0.73	0
14	2026-07-29	0.80	1
15	1982-07-29	0.86	0
16	2016-07-29	0.87	0
17	1953-07-29	0.88	0
18	1945-07-29	0.89	0
19	1971-07-29	0.93	0
20	1934-07-29	0.98	0

Highs are close too for July 1-29

1	2023-07-29	99.2	0
2	1980-07-29	99.0	0
3	2003-07-29	97.2	0
4	1978-07-29	97.1	0
5	1951-07-29	96.1	0
6	2016-07-29	95.9	0
-	1979-07-29	95.9	0
8	1994-07-29	95.7	0
9	1983-07-29	95.2	0
10	1963-07-29	95.0	0
11	2026-07-29	94.8	1
12	2011-07-29	94.7	0
13	1993-07-29	94.6	0
-	1982-07-29	94.6	0
-	1934-07-29	94.6	0
16	1954-07-29	94.4	0
17	2005-07-29	94.3	0
-	1981-07-29	94.3	0
19	1995-07-29	94.0	0
-	1953-07-29	94.0	0
21	1947-07-29	93.8	0

[George001]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

^ Holy GLAAM!

 

 

I may have underestimated the MEI. Given this extreme coupling, it may have already hit +2 this month, I was thinking August. Now, I think we rival, if not exceed the all time highest MEI on record of +2.9 (set during the 1982-83 super El Niño). Breaking the all time traditional ONI and RONI is a guarantee 

Yep, we are going to shatter the old records. The daily Nino 3.4 already is above 2C before August, and the subsurface warmth continues to go nuclear. I’m taking the over on ONI and RONI >3C

[Jebman]

Extending that Y-axis is extremely good news for me.

BRING IT THE HELL ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[snowman19]

Comparison of the difference in SSTs, last summer to this summer, same time frame….huge wow, night and day, not just at ENSO, but the +PMM as well. You can also see the IOD flip to positive with the big cooling in the eastern IOD region around Indonesia, not shown but there has also been very substantial warming in the western IOD region

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^This is going to be about the best El Nino/-PDO analog we are ever going to get. You can probably also flip this Fall/Winters anomalies around in the future for La Nina/+PDO

This July was the opposite temperature composite from the other developing super El Niño years.

Notice the record warmth focused in the Rockies and Upper Plains. Rapid City, SD just tied their warmest July.

That’s where the coolest anomalies during the July super El Niños were focused in the past. Notice the past developing super El Niños were among the coolest.

 

 

Time Series Summary for Rapid City Area, SD (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Warmest Average Temperatures
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2026	79.7	2
-	2007	79.7	0
2	2006	79.3	0
3	2012	78.4	0
4	2002	78.3	0
5	1954	77.7	0
6	1974	77.3	0
7	2017	77.1	0
8	2003	77.0	0
-	1989	77.0	0
9	1955	76.9	0
10	1960	76.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for Rapid City Area, SD (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Coolest Average Temperatures
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1992	64.3	0
2	1993	65.1	0
3	1972	65.6	0
4	1950	66.9	0
5	1958	67.0	0
6	1971	68.0	0
7	2009	68.1	0
8	1944	69.0	0
9	1968	69.1	0
10	1962	69.2	0
11	2014	69.5	0
12	2018	70.2	0
13	2010	70.4	0
-	1979	70.4	0
14	2023	70.5	0
15	2019	70.6	0
-	1995	70.6	0
-	1967	70.6	0
16	1994	70.7	0
-	1982	70.7	0
-	1973	70.7	0
-	1948	70.7	0
17	1996	70.8	0
-	1986	70.8	0
-	1951	70.8	0
18	1997	70.9	0
19	2015	71.0	0

[EasternLI]

This area of very warm water pooling that I circled. There's something really curious about that. It's exactly in the region with suggested links to PDO transitions. With a super nino inbound that's fascinating. 

 

[snowman19]

This area of very warm water pooling that I circled. There's something really curious about that. It's exactly in the region with suggested links to PDO transitions. With a super nino inbound that's fascinating. 
 

Also of note, that 30C warm pool keeps migrating further and further east of the dateline, pushed by the non stop WWBs

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This July was the opposite temperature composite from the other developing super El Niño years.

Notice the record warmth focused in the Rockies and Upper Plains. Rapid City, SD just tied their warmest July.

That’s where the coolest anomalies during the July super El Niños were focused in the past. Notice the past developing super El Niños were among the coolest.

 

 

Time Series Summary for Rapid City Area, SD (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Warmest Average Temperatures
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2026	79.7	2
-	2007	79.7	0
2	2006	79.3	0
3	2012	78.4	0
4	2002	78.3	0
5	1954	77.7	0
6	1974	77.3	0
7	2017	77.1	0
8	2003	77.0	0
-	1989	77.0	0
9	1955	76.9	0
10	1960	76.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for Rapid City Area, SD (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Coolest Average Temperatures
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1992	64.3	0
2	1993	65.1	0
3	1972	65.6	0
4	1950	66.9	0
5	1958	67.0	0
6	1971	68.0	0
7	2009	68.1	0
8	1944	69.0	0
9	1968	69.1	0
10	1962	69.2	0
11	2014	69.5	0
12	2018	70.2	0
13	2010	70.4	0
-	1979	70.4	0
14	2023	70.5	0
15	2019	70.6	0
-	1995	70.6	0
-	1967	70.6	0
16	1994	70.7	0
-	1982	70.7	0
-	1973	70.7	0
-	1948	70.7	0
17	1996	70.8	0
-	1986	70.8	0
-	1951	70.8	0
18	1997	70.9	0
19	2015	71.0	0

 The hot summer of 1991 was an exception.

[GaWx]

 Darwin has had 21 straight days of 1015+ mb pressure. Based on records back to to 1991, that’s a new record long string breaking the old record of 20 days set in Aug of 2015.

[MJO812]

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's why Chuck's formula is negative.

[George001]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Super El Niño is bad for sustained cold, it isn’t necessarily bad for snow. For say NYC and SE you guys I think could actually do well snow wise because all it takes is one big storm to get you over your seasonal snow totals. I would also think the storm track with the active super Nino driven STJ could be good for the mid Atlantic. Super Nino is bad for coastal SNE and ski areas for 2 reasons however:

1. More of our snow consists of nickel and dime events than huge storms, so the super Nino tradeoff (warmer overall, very few nickle and dime events, elevated risk of huge storms) hits northern areas harder. This is the bigger issue for ski areas, as well as the worse snow retention due to it being milder overall.

2. The active southern jet doesn’t necessarily push storms up the coast if the “big one” does hit , often they slide out after hitting the mid Atlantic rather than coming up (see Jan 2016), and when they do come up they tend to run inland a bit and bring in warmer air, bringing rain to coastal New England. This is the bigger issue for areas like Boston, the juiced up Miller A track often isn’t great here. We tend to do better with Miller Bs and SWFE events. 

I’m not optimistic for my area and the ski areas, but in NYC and the mid atlantic I don’t think how things are developing is necessarily bad in terms of snow prospects. 

[SnoSki14]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I don't know how true that is but I don't believe it's going to be a wall to wall torch with very low snows. I think this winter will be highly variable and the back half will generate at least 1 major snowstorm for the east. 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Super, east-based El Niño (strongest in history) along with a +QBO and we have the usual weenie accounts on social media hyping a very cold winter 

@forkyfork

It is the opposite of end of the spectrum from half all the clowns you post 24/7 as if you work for them

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't know how true that is but I don't believe it's going to be a wall to wall torch with very low snows. I think this winter will be highly variable and the back half will generate at least 1 major snowstorm for the east. 

Here's your 4 analogs 72-73,82-83,97-98 and 15-16..all had above normal temps..72-73 and 97-98 was virtually a shutout..82-83 and 15-16 had a historic blizzard. That's a good rundown of what you might expect.

[roardog]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's why Chuck's formula is negative.

I thought I read somewhere once upon a time that a +AMO is more conducive to a -NAO. Although that doesn’t make a lot of sense since the last -AMO had a lot of -NAO periods in it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't know how true that is but I don't believe it's going to be a wall to wall torch with very low snows. I think this winter will be highly variable and the back half will generate at least 1 major snowstorm for the east. 

Yea, that's there I'm at.

[GaWx]

Arctic ice area currently isn’t doing bad at all vs the avg for 2013-24, perhaps helped by the relatively cold 80N+:

[George001]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Super, east-based El Niño (strongest in history) along with a +QBO and we have the usual weenie accounts on social media hyping a very cold winter 

@forkyfork

Imo the following winter is the one to watch for northern areas, not this upcoming one. I don’t see the roaring STJ dying off quickly especially if the El Niño lingers into the spring before collapsing into La Niña. When you combine the lingering STJ with a La Niña, big things can happen for northern areas. When it comes to sustained cold in an El Niño this powerful, I need to see it to believe it. Historical precedence for these super ninos is a warm east. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

Imo the following winter is the one to watch for northern areas, not this upcoming one. I don’t see the roaring STJ dying off quickly especially if the El Niño lingers into the spring before collapsing into La Niña. When you combine the lingering STJ with a La Niña, big things can happen for northern areas. When it comes to sustained cold in an El Niño this powerful, I need to see it to believe it. Historical precedence for these super ninos is a warm east. 

I can even see the el nino being so strong that it carries over into a 2nd year, but ending in fall 2027. This will give a head start to developing la nina, which peaks very strong in 2028-29, kind of like 1988-89. It will probably be a one-year la nina, but boy, will it be very strong. 

[LakePaste25]

N Pac finally waking up to El Niño? This is what you’d expect in the warm season (weak Aleutian Low that slowly deepens). 

 

[snowman19]

N Pac finally waking up to El Niño? This is what you’d expect in the warm season (weak Aleutian Low that slowly deepens). 
 

Classic El Niño forcing is taking over the Northern Hemisphere.



++GLAAM

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I wouldn't call a little -0.25 area on a 324hr map "El Nino taking over the Hemisphere".