CAPE Posted Sunday at 05:20 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:20 PM 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Its primarily a miller A solution IMO. Looking at the H5 map of vorticity (which approximates upper air diffluence and consequently lift in the lower levels) we can see that the main energy of the system on the GFS is over the Gulf Looking at the surface pressure map around 12 hours later we can see that there is a nudge of pressure going up the Ohio valley (due to the H5 amplifying the surface across the East coast) which does indicate a bit of a miller B/C depiction. However, the real meat of the storm is in Georgia after tracking across the Gulf states. This is really just a miller A but without enough blocking in place to prevent the H5 diffluence from promoting some surface cyclogenesis in the Ohio valley. In order to prevent this storm from cutting we just need the NS to promote enough confluence to prevent the 925/850 low from going up the valley like what happened on Jan 25th. Generally we want either more confluence or the wave to eject from the SW earlier while we still have that cold air push. Yes and much different than 6z when the primary went to Cleveland and the secondary formed over NJ. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 05:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:21 PM This thread does kinda dilute the brand. I need CAPE to balance the irrational and unbalanced. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Sunday at 05:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:22 PM Just now, CAPE said: Yes and much different than 6z when the primary went to Cleveland and the secondary formed over NJ. Honestly with 12z I'm not even sure if you could call the bit of low pressure in the Ohio valley a primary. From how I'm seeing the setup it appears to be an extension of the main low pressure system across the southeast states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 05:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:23 PM 54 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z GFS pretty much does it. A significant and sharp shortwave, coastal low, facilitated by the Central Canada/Hudson ridge and well timed 50-50 with surface HP where we need it. Just like the old days where this setup could snow in the MA. 53 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 12z gfs just showed us the win scenario we all need, including the lowlands. First, we need a lead shortwave (over MN/IA at 132 hr) to reinforce cold air just before the main wave (over AZ/NM) arrives. And the main wave is strong enough to maintain a miller A with sufficient gulf feed: We don’t want them to phase too early else it will cut, and we also don’t want zero interaction between the two streams either. Is it possible that for once “what could go right” happens instead of…what we’re used to 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 05:23 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:23 PM Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Honestly with 12z I'm not even sure if you could call the bit of low pressure in the Ohio valley a primary. From how I'm seeing the setup it appears to be an extension of the main low pressure system across the southeast states. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:38 PM 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Is it possible that for once “what could go right” happens instead of…what we’re used to Yes, for once, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 05:39 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:39 PM 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This thread does kinda dilute the brand. I need CAPE to balance the irrational and unbalanced. Once I have had a couple bourbons I might pop in. I mainly just wanted a thread to escape all that shit. Takes the fun out of it weeding through all the meltdowns and entire pages of day 10 snow maps posted multiple times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:40 PM 18 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This thread does kinda dilute the brand. I need CAPE to balance the irrational and unbalanced. Honestly. The idea is good at first, but it gets a bit annoying checking and posting in both threads. Idk what the answer is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 05:41 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:41 PM Just now, Terpeast said: Yes, for once, please. If its still possible, this winter would be the one to make it happen. Cold has overwhelmed for 2 weeks and its been bone dry, so just maybe we can get something to work with some actual mositure and modest cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 05:43 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:43 PM 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Honestly. The idea is good at first, but it gets a bit annoying checking and posting in both threads. Idk what the answer is. Make me a mod for that thread only and I'll take care of it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:54 PM 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Make me a mod for that thread only and I'll take care of it. Hmmm 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Sunday at 06:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:05 PM 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hmmm There would be so many people 5 posted it would just be 7 people in there, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 06:09 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 06:09 PM 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: There would be so many people 5 posted it would just be 7 people in there, lol Nah. All whingy posts would be hidden, and the snow maps... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted Sunday at 06:14 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:14 PM 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Nah. All whingy posts would be hidden, and the snow maps... I believe this was a smart idea. As we can see with the response to the 12z Euro, we need a place to read analysis without the volatile reactions LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Sunday at 06:25 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:25 PM Cross posting one of the few things I feel qualified to write about. MSLP positions. 12z EPS; you can see how the mean is well SE of where the operational euro was. At hour 186, the operational was where the 1008mb contour crosses the Chesapeake. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 06:32 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 06:32 PM 5 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Cross posting one of the few things I feel qualified to write about. MSLP positions. 12z EPS; you can see how the mean is well SE of where the operational euro was. At hour 186, the operational was where the 1008mb contour crosses the Chesapeake. Long way to go. Quite a spread as expected. Could easily see a track just off the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Sunday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:36 PM 10 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Cross posting one of the few things I feel qualified to write about. MSLP positions. 12z EPS; you can see how the mean is well SE of where the operational euro was. At hour 186, the operational was where the 1008mb contour crosses the Chesapeake. That’s a pretty good mean location for a low for our primo snow climo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Sunday at 06:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:38 PM 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Long way to go. Quite a spread as expected. Could easily see a track just off the coast. Yes, and the EPS has really just clued in on this solution over the last few runs. More changes expected lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 07:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:19 PM Seeing the EPS mean is reassuring. The op runs can be expected to windshield wiper around the ensemble means, as they trend closer to the final solution, which we will have a better idea by Wednesday Upon closer inspection, EPS (and AI EPS) has reversed its weakening trend and re-strengthens the s/w on approach. Hudson bay high and confluence also stronger, better cold air mass. New run: Old run: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Sunday at 07:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:51 PM On 2/7/2026 at 10:42 AM, CAPE said: Lets discuss upcoming potential storm threats. No pissing and moaning, emotional pendulums, and no snow maps until guidance converges on a clear, specific storm threat within 7 days. Hopefully mods won't mind moving noncompliant posts to the appropriate threads. @psuhoffman @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx @brooklynwx99 It has been so much fun in last two weeks to post actual, real weather events, outcomes, obs and discussions . It’s really what got these weather boards underway back in the day. 240-360 hour explosions over models is boring and generally futile and discouraging. But it was mostly the only thing going for years. This year we had winter weather!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 08:42 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 08:42 PM The storm after the storm potential is looking a bit better on the 12z EPS. Miller B-ish but further south. Not a strong signal at this point but a long way to go. Just something to keep an eye on, especially if next weekend fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 08:53 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:53 PM I might consider this secession and send in federal troops. 2 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Sunday at 11:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:05 PM 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Is it possible that for once “what could go right” happens instead of…what we’re used to Law of averages means that'll have to happen eventually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 11:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:06 PM 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: I might consider this secession and send in federal troops. Word on the street is Richmond/Hampton thread is trying to also secede from the midlantic thread lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintrest Posted Sunday at 11:14 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:14 PM 1 hour ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: As long as we don't get a lot of...uhhh...ICE showing up in the models!!! (Yeah, I know, that's getting a bit borderline political perhaps, but I just couldn't resist!! I'll remove it if you think it's a bit much.) Thanks for your technical analysis! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago This a general post about the pattern going forward and 2 potential windows to keep an eye on for a storm. First the period around the 20th. The advertised pattern progression is a bit delayed compared to guidance a few days ago. Here we see the PAC ridge extending northward from an unfavorable position into the WPO domain. This timeframe still holds some potential for a storm but not looking as strong as it was a few days ago. As of now areas to our north are favored for winter precip. Anomalously cold air is starting to build into NW Canada. A few days later we have a -WPO with a mechanism to deliver colder air into our nearby source region and then southeastward into the NE and MA.. The trough out west is weaker and progressing eastward. The NA looks favorable with a -NAO and 50-50 low, and there is a flat/suppressed SE ridge. You can optimistically visualize a storm track just to our south. This is pretty far out but there is an indication of a storm on the mean- looks like a miller B but ofc this is highly subject to change at this juncture. The surface look up top is pretty damn good for a LR mean, indicating HP to the NW and LP to the NE. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: This a general post about the pattern going forward and 2 potential windows to keep an eye on for a storm. First the period around the 20th. The advertised pattern progression is a bit delayed compared to guidance a few days ago. Here we see the PAC ridge extending northward from an unfavorable position into the WPO domain. This timeframe still holds some potential for a storm but not looking as strong as it was a few days ago. As of now areas to our north are favored for winter precip. Anomalously cold air is starting to build into NW Canada. A few days later we have a -WPO with a mechanism to deliver colder air into our nearby source region and then southeastward into the NE and MA.. The trough out west is weaker and progressing eastward. The NA looks favorable with a -NAO and 50-50 low, and there is a flat/suppressed SE ridge. You can optimistically visualize a storm track just to our south. This is pretty far out but there is an indication of a storm on the mean- looks like a miller B but ofc this is highly subject to change at this juncture. The surface look up top is pretty damn good for a LR mean, indicating HP to the NW and LP to the NE. I like it---the pattern window you are talking too is much better than this weekend with fresh cold air available and not a suppressive pattern. Thats a nasty ridge between alaska and Russia! we are not scoring enough with all teh cold air we have had. 19 straight days of no precip when we hit sunday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 minutes ago, Ji said: I like it---the pattern window you are talking too is much better than this weekend with fresh cold air available and not a suppressive pattern. Thats a nasty ridge between alaska and Russia! we are not scoring enough with all teh cold air we have had. 19 straight days of no precip when we hit sunday Lets see if it holds, but for now it looks like the last week or so of the month could be cold, and hopefully not dry. Sucks we have had this glacier otg for 16 days with historic cold and no fucking precip. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 59 minutes ago, CAPE said: This a general post about the pattern going forward and 2 potential windows to keep an eye on for a storm. First the period around the 20th. The advertised pattern progression is a bit delayed compared to guidance a few days ago. Here we see the PAC ridge extending northward from an unfavorable position into the WPO domain. This timeframe still holds some potential for a storm but not looking as strong as it was a few days ago. As of now areas to our north are favored for winter precip. Anomalously cold air is starting to build into NW Canada. A few days later we have a -WPO with a mechanism to deliver colder air into our nearby source region and then southeastward into the NE and MA.. The trough out west is weaker and progressing eastward. The NA looks favorable with a -NAO and 50-50 low, and there is a flat/suppressed SE ridge. You can optimistically visualize a storm track just to our south. This is pretty far out but there is an indication of a storm on the mean- looks like a miller B but ofc this is highly subject to change at this juncture. The surface look up top is pretty damn good for a LR mean, indicating HP to the NW and LP to the NE. Maybe something like this at 366hrs on the GfsAI run. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2026020918&fh=366 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 52 minutes ago Author Share Posted 52 minutes ago 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Maybe something like this at 366hrs on the GfsAI run. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2026020918&fh=366 Yeah. Looks cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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