wxsniss Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 A prime nowcast setup, but there’s strong consensus at 12z on North Shore max (and a shot at warning) RGEM, GFS, NAMs, RRFS, …and this is the HREF: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Thinking 3 to 5 for us Agreed. Hedging towards 3 but 3-6" would not surprise me at all 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, wxsniss said: A prime nowcast setup, but there’s strong consensus at 12z on North Shore max (and a shot at warning) RGEM, GFS, NAMs, RRFS, …and this is the HREF: What is the yellow there, 6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Methuen maybe gets tickled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 11 minutes ago, CT Rain said: It's weird BOX hasn't issued advisories yet for the North Shore. I think advisories will eventually be necessary for other areas as well... North Shore a lock, but I could see the trigger being pulled for lower end advisories anywhere from portions of eastern / southeastern CT on across RI... Sometimes they will issue advisories for a glorified snow shower setup, but not jump in one a widespread solid light accumulation event... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Methuen maybe gets tickled Yea, no complaints from me...I expect it to be east. I'll take the refresher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 10 minutes ago, wxsniss said: A prime nowcast setup, but there’s strong consensus at 12z on North Shore max (and a shot at warning) RGEM, GFS, NAMs, RRFS, …and this is the HREF: Nice bump up there river East .. supports 3-5” with localized higher amount s here up into ORH county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is the yellow there, 6"? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 41 minutes ago, CT Rain said: It's weird BOX hasn't issued advisories yet for the North Shore. Yeah and they might even need a warning in Essex county. I think they’ll prob go advisory for eastern half of SNE in their afternoon update. Seems like there is enough confidence in widespread 2-4/3-5 over ORH, Middlesex, Bristol, Norfolk, PYM counties….and prob all of RI. Eastern CT a little trickier. Windham and New London counties prob decent chance of advisory…even back to Tolland county…but guidance a little more variable in CT compared to RI/E MA. There’s a chance someone down near south coast around GON to Old Lyme could get a big surprise too. That’s been showing up as a secondary or tertiary maximum zone outside of North Shore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah and they might even need a warning in Essex county. I think they’ll prob go advisory for eastern half of SNE in their afternoon update. Seems like there is enough confidence in widespread 2-4/3-5 over ORH, Middlesex, Bristol, Norfolk, PYM counties….and prob all of RI. Eastern CT a little trickier. Windham and New London counties prob decent chance of advisory…even back to Tolland county…but guidance a little more variable in CT compared to RI/E MA. There’s a chance someone down near south coast around GON to Old Lyme could get a big surprise too. That’s been showing up as a secondary or tertiary maximum zone outside of North Shore. BOS has advisories up, WWA for the CWA east of ORH county, Watch for Essex County. But because of the hierarchy of products, the watch is behind the cold weather advisory for Essex County, so it doesn't show up there. I think they coded the times wrong, too, they're showing the WWA for Sunday (the Watch is timed correctly). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Euro still likes that ORH band into RI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro still likes that ORH band into RI. It’s weird how euro has been ignoring the north shore jackpot…inclined to toss it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 ouch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 AI has more of a hint of the north shore jack than the op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s weird how euro has been ignoring the north shore jackpot…inclined to toss it I know it. Strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: ouch here. Some models printing out half an inch liquid in Plymouth county and the euro is under a tenth. Caution flags 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 20 minutes ago, ariof said: BOS has advisories up, WWA for the CWA east of ORH county, Watch for Essex County. But because of the hierarchy of products, the watch is behind the cold weather advisory for Essex County, so it doesn't show up there. I think they coded the times wrong, too, they're showing the WWA for Sunday (the Watch is timed correctly). Advisory out for us just the extreme cold warning is covering it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 GFS bufkit is nuts for Boston. Definitely supports warning criteria potential 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6z swiss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 to 5 river east.. some spots on the coast might end up with a 8 or 10 spot 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s weird how euro has been ignoring the north shore jackpot…inclined to toss it Amazing how the Only areas that get Screwed in the State of RI are Taylor Swift’s house on 1 end and Cory’s house on the other end. 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 If Euro is wrong again, time to leave it in the glue factory and throw away the key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Ha the Swiss. I missed that model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: 6z swiss Thanks for filling in for Anthony. That would make many happy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 13z NBM... not sure how useful these are if at all... they were very good in the Jan 25-26 event. (EDIT in case people are wondering: these get released for 1z/7z/13z/19z... I assume because they incorporate a blend of the 0z/6z/12z/18z models) This is likely overdone, and not sure how appropriate a "blend" of models is for events that are heavily impacted by meso features for which models have lots of variation, but the trend has been steadily up. It's assuming mean SLRs 15-17:1 for the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 44 minutes ago, TheSnowman said: Amazing how the Only areas that get Screwed in the State of RI are Taylor Swift’s house on 1 end and Cory’s house on the other end. YOU NEED MORE CAPS!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 It was right around this date three years ago we actually had a legit severe thunderstorm roll through complete with frequent lightning. Will never forget that especially in February 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Most will get 1-3 outside of it. Even Kevin’s 2-4 seems reasonable. ill be lucky to get over 2" on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said: Thanks for filling in for Anthony. That would make many happy I actually like it. Problem is it runs so slow. The 12z is coming out now when we have 18z mesos starting to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 56 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: It was right around this date three years ago we actually had a legit severe thunderstorm roll through complete with frequent lightning. Will never forget that especially in February 2 years ago a week from now…we had that CT Special that was supposed to bury the whole area, but then shit the bed 24 hrs before, and then came back to bury CT…and screw pretty much everybody else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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