Friday February 6 FROPA / WINDEX small event

[wxsniss]

A prime nowcast setup, but there’s strong consensus at 12z on North Shore max (and a shot at warning)

RGEM, GFS, NAMs, RRFS,

…and this is the HREF:

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Thinking 3 to 5 for us 

Agreed.  Hedging towards 3 but 3-6" would not surprise me at all

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

A prime nowcast setup, but there’s strong consensus at 12z on North Shore max (and a shot at warning)

RGEM, GFS, NAMs, RRFS,

…and this is the HREF:

What is the yellow there, 6"?

[CoastalWx]

Methuen maybe gets tickled 

[FXWX]

11 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

It's weird BOX hasn't issued advisories yet for the North Shore. 

I think advisories will eventually be necessary for other areas as well... North Shore a lock, but I could see the trigger being pulled for lower end advisories anywhere from portions of eastern / southeastern CT on across RI...  Sometimes they will issue advisories for a glorified snow shower setup, but not jump in one a widespread solid light accumulation event...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Methuen maybe gets tickled 

Yea, no complaints from me...I expect it to be east. I'll take the refresher.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

A prime nowcast setup, but there’s strong consensus at 12z on North Shore max (and a shot at warning)

RGEM, GFS, NAMs, RRFS,

…and this is the HREF:

Nice bump up there river East .. supports 3-5” with localized higher amount s here up into ORH county 

[wxsniss]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is the yellow there, 6"?

[ORH_wxman]

41 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

It's weird BOX hasn't issued advisories yet for the North Shore. 

Yeah and they might even need a warning in Essex county. I think they’ll prob go advisory for eastern half of SNE in their afternoon update. Seems like there is enough confidence in widespread 2-4/3-5 over ORH, Middlesex, Bristol, Norfolk, PYM counties….and prob all of RI. Eastern CT a little trickier. Windham and New London counties prob decent chance of advisory…even back to Tolland county…but guidance a little more variable in CT compared to RI/E MA. 
 

There’s a chance someone down near south coast around GON to Old Lyme could get a big surprise too. That’s been showing up as a secondary or tertiary maximum zone outside of North Shore. 

[ariof]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and they might even need a warning in Essex county. I think they’ll prob go advisory for eastern half of SNE in their afternoon update. Seems like there is enough confidence in widespread 2-4/3-5 over ORH, Middlesex, Bristol, Norfolk, PYM counties….and prob all of RI. Eastern CT a little trickier. Windham and New London counties prob decent chance of advisory…even back to Tolland county…but guidance a little more variable in CT compared to RI/E MA. 
 

There’s a chance someone down near south coast around GON to Old Lyme could get a big surprise too. That’s been showing up as a secondary or tertiary maximum zone outside of North Shore. 

BOS has advisories up, WWA for the CWA east of ORH county, Watch for Essex County. But because of the hierarchy of products, the watch is behind the cold weather advisory for Essex County, so it doesn't show up there.

I think they coded the times wrong, too, they're showing the WWA for Sunday (the Watch is timed correctly). 

[CoastalWx]

Euro still likes that ORH band into RI.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Euro still likes that ORH band into RI.

It’s weird how euro has been ignoring the north shore jackpot…inclined to toss it  

 

[SouthCoastMA]

ouch here. 

[dendrite]

AI has more of a hint of the north shore jack than the op. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s weird how euro has been ignoring the north shore jackpot…inclined to toss it  

 

I know it. Strange. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

ouch here. 

Some models printing out half an inch liquid in Plymouth county and the euro is under a tenth. Caution flags 

[ineedsnow]

20 minutes ago, ariof said:

BOS has advisories up, WWA for the CWA east of ORH county, Watch for Essex County. But because of the hierarchy of products, the watch is behind the cold weather advisory for Essex County, so it doesn't show up there.

I think they coded the times wrong, too, they're showing the WWA for Sunday (the Watch is timed correctly). 

Advisory out for us just the extreme cold warning is covering it 

[weatherwiz]

GFS bufkit is nuts for Boston. Definitely supports warning criteria potential 

[dendrite]

6z swiss

[ineedsnow]

3 to 5 river east.. some spots on the coast might end up with a 8 or 10 spot

[TheSnowman]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s weird how euro has been ignoring the north shore jackpot…inclined to toss it  

 

Amazing how the Only areas that get Screwed in the State of RI are Taylor Swift’s house on 1 end and Cory’s house on the other end.  

[SouthCoastMA]

If Euro is wrong again, time to leave it in the glue factory and throw away the key

[CoastalWx]

Ha the Swiss. I missed that model.

[SouthCoastMA]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

6z swiss

Thanks for filling in for Anthony. That would make many happy

[wxsniss]

13z NBM... not sure how useful these are if at all... they were very good in the Jan 25-26 event. (EDIT in case people are wondering: these get released for 1z/7z/13z/19z... I assume because they incorporate a blend of the 0z/6z/12z/18z models)

This is likely overdone, and not sure how appropriate a "blend" of models is for events that are heavily impacted by meso features for which models have lots of variation, but the trend has been steadily up. It's assuming mean SLRs 15-17:1 for the event. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

44 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Amazing how the Only areas that get Screwed in the State of RI are Taylor Swift’s house on 1 end and Cory’s house on the other end.  

YOU NEED MORE CAPS!!!

[Cyclone-68]

It was right around this date three years ago we actually had a legit severe thunderstorm roll through complete with frequent lightning. Will never forget that especially in February 

[TalcottWx]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Most will get 1-3 outside of it. Even Kevin’s 2-4 seems reasonable. 

ill be lucky to get over 2" on this one

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Thanks for filling in for Anthony. That would make many happy

I actually like it. Problem is it runs so slow. The 12z is coming out now when we have 18z mesos starting to run.  

[WinterWolf]

56 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

It was right around this date three years ago we actually had a legit severe thunderstorm roll through complete with frequent lightning. Will never forget that especially in February 

2 years ago a week from now…we had that CT Special that was supposed to bury the whole area, but then shit the bed 24 hrs before, and then came back to bury CT…and screw pretty much everybody else.