2/6-7: Clipper Pack Refresher

[stormtracker]

NAM has a little razzle dazzle..but, you know,..NAM

[Steckstacks]

00z HRRR

HRRR was crap for the last front passage. Hopefully it’s right this time but not counting on it.


.

[wasnow215]

10 minutes ago, Steckstacks said:

HRRR was crap for the last front passage. Hopefully it’s right this time but not counting on it.


.

4 to 6 hours out it's ok. Not 40-48. Euro/GFS/CMC/NAM 3K at this range -in that order 

[snowfan]

Saturday looks great if you like cold and wind. 
 

Very tight pressure gradient develops late Friday night through
Saturday between a rapidly deepening area of low pressure over
the western Atlantic and strong high pressure over the western
Great Lakes. Expect a sudden onset of strong winds after 06Z Sat
that moves rapidly from west to east.

Model soundings indicate mixing to around 925 mb on Saturday
with all guidance, except the Canadian, indicating winds of
40-45 kt in that layer. The 00Z ECMWF continues to have the
strongest 925 mb winds with values up to 50 kt. Even below that
layer, winds around 950 mb or 0.5 km AGL are between 40-45 kt
indicating a high confidence of a solid Wind Advisory event
almost everywhere, except down by Albemarle and Nelson
Counties. The high elevations will definitely need a High Wind
Watch. Believe there is also a decent shot that winds at lower
elevations could peak around 50 kt for a short period of time
Saturday morning, mainly between 09Z and 15Z where 925 mb low-
level jet is passing over northern VA.

Extreme Cold Watches have been issued for the Allegheny
Mountains with additional Cold Weather Advisories likely needed
for the northern half of the fcst area.

[WxUSAF]

There’s a very sharp trough associated with this clipper that looks like it will pass through early Saturday morning. Might be the arctic front? Guidance has snow associated with it upstream of us, very squally looking. But the mountains mostly kill it. 6z hrrr is the first run I’ve seen that gets some into the metro area. That may be worth watching.

[MN Transplant]

We’ve had some unpleasant days this winter, but Saturday might top them all.  That wind is going to hurt.

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

We’ve had some unpleasant days this winter, but Saturday might top them all.  That wind is going to hurt.

Unpleasant, you say? This is what we live for

[TSSN+]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

Unpleasant, you say? This is what we live for

We want snow, not -20 windchill 

[SolidIcewx]

41 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

We’ve had some unpleasant days this winter, but Saturday might top them all.  That wind is going to hurt.

As a Utility worker i dont look forward to Saturday at all lol

[MN Transplant]

The HRRR verbatim at 12z Saturday is single digit temps and wind gusts approaching 50mph.  That would be rare territory around here.

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The HRRR verbatim at 12z Saturday is single digit temps and wind gusts approaching 50mph.  That would be rare territory around here.

Yay? Lol

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

We want snow, not -20 windchill 

GIMME

[Eskimo Joe]

26 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The HRRR verbatim at 12z Saturday is single digit temps and wind gusts approaching 50mph.  That would be rare territory around here.

GIMME

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

GIMME

 

[MN Transplant]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

GIMME

Road trip to PA?

[caviman2201]

FWIW - RRFS getting better 
 

[TSSN+]

Saturday forecast.

Saturday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 15. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 24 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph.
 

 

[Weather Will]

107 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

...EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 0 to 10 degrees
  below zero possible east of the Blue Ridge, and as low as 15
  degrees below zero west of the Blue Ridge.

* WHERE...Portions of DC, central, north central, northeast, and
  northern Maryland, northern, northwest, and western Virginia, and
  eastern and panhandle West Virginia.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could
  result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Frostbite and
  hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is exposed to these
  temperatures.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills will remain at or below zero
  during the day on Saturday due to windy conditions and cold
  temperatures.

[aldie 22]

My wife is making me go see her parents this weekend.  We fly to Tampa Saturday morning...I'm sad I'll be missing the historic wind chill

[Eskimo Joe]

Legit can't wait for Saturday. I've got a shift at the farm outside. I will take extreme cold over heat any day of the week. Weather like this lets you know you're alive!

[katabatic]

Temp this morning here was -5.6 so a hint of things to come. Just got upgraded to a Warning with 6-8" and up to 60 mph winds. Still not completely sold on that kind of accumulation with Huron mostly and Erie especially closed for business. While this is nothing historic of course, it's still going to be a pretty solid ~24 hours out here in the Boonies. 

[TSSN+]

14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Legit can't wait for Saturday. I've got a shift at the farm outside. I will take extreme cold over heat any day of the week. Weather like this lets you know you're alive!

Enjoy the frost bite 

[jonjon]

27 minutes ago, katabatic said:

Temp this morning here was -5.6 so a hint of things to come. Just got upgraded to a Warning with 6-8" and up to 60 mph winds. Still not completely sold on that kind of accumulation with Huron mostly and Erie especially closed for business. While this is nothing historic of course, it's still going to be a pretty solid ~24 hours out here in the Boonies. 

I personally believe we'll outperform based on the models, the trajectory of the storm and high ratios will be our friend on this one.

However, the projected high temp of 2 degrees and winds pushing 50mph on Saturday is gonna make it a stay inside type of weekend . . .

[WEATHER53]

28 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Legit can't wait for Saturday. I've got a shift at the farm outside. I will take extreme cold over heat any day of the week. Weather like this lets you know you're alive!

Just gotta suit up in insulated layers of armor and go face directly into it for a moment .  Big snow and big cold is what true winter weather adoration is all about.  If you dislike the cold and express so then you are not if our ilk but are still permitted to post here 

[WEATHER53]

32 minutes ago, katabatic said:

Temp this morning here was -5.6 so a hint of things to come. Just got upgraded to a Warning with 6-8" and up to 60 mph winds. Still not completely sold on that kind of accumulation with Huron mostly and Erie especially closed for business. While this is nothing historic of course, it's still going to be a pretty solid ~24 hours out here in the Boonies. 

You might hit -30 wind chill and -20 seems certain. I would think -25 to -30  is in the historic category 

[AlexD1990]

A high wind watch with forecast highs barely cracking 20 degrees. This reminds me of 2013-14 but less snow, more cold.

[peribonca]

Going to be a brutal weekend for those icefishing Deep Creek!

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, jonjon said:

I personally believe we'll outperform based on the models, the trajectory of the storm and high ratios will be our friend on this one.

However, the projected high temp of 2 degrees and winds pushing 50mph on Saturday is gonna make it a stay inside type of weekend . . .

yea I'm gonna drive up Sunday to ski Monday with the kids...looks to warm up pretty good by then but this weekend...too cold I think.  

[psuhoffman]

So I am going to assume the snowfall aspect looked so good there was no need to talk about it anymore which is why all I see is wind chill discussions 

[gunny23]

22 minutes ago, jonjon said:

I personally believe we'll outperform based on the models, the trajectory of the storm and high ratios will be our friend on this one.

However, the projected high temp of 2 degrees and winds pushing 50mph on Saturday is gonna make it a stay inside type of weekend . . .

We just decided to bail on coming.  Between the drive out friday evening and miserable (ski) conditions, we will sit this one out!