2/6-7: Clipper Pack Refresher

[stormtracker]

NAM has a little razzle dazzle..but, you know,..NAM

[Steckstacks]

00z HRRR

HRRR was crap for the last front passage. Hopefully it’s right this time but not counting on it.


.

[wasnow215]

10 minutes ago, Steckstacks said:

HRRR was crap for the last front passage. Hopefully it’s right this time but not counting on it.


.

4 to 6 hours out it's ok. Not 40-48. Euro/GFS/CMC/NAM 3K at this range -in that order 

[snowfan]

Saturday looks great if you like cold and wind. 
 

Very tight pressure gradient develops late Friday night through
Saturday between a rapidly deepening area of low pressure over
the western Atlantic and strong high pressure over the western
Great Lakes. Expect a sudden onset of strong winds after 06Z Sat
that moves rapidly from west to east.

Model soundings indicate mixing to around 925 mb on Saturday
with all guidance, except the Canadian, indicating winds of
40-45 kt in that layer. The 00Z ECMWF continues to have the
strongest 925 mb winds with values up to 50 kt. Even below that
layer, winds around 950 mb or 0.5 km AGL are between 40-45 kt
indicating a high confidence of a solid Wind Advisory event
almost everywhere, except down by Albemarle and Nelson
Counties. The high elevations will definitely need a High Wind
Watch. Believe there is also a decent shot that winds at lower
elevations could peak around 50 kt for a short period of time
Saturday morning, mainly between 09Z and 15Z where 925 mb low-
level jet is passing over northern VA.

Extreme Cold Watches have been issued for the Allegheny
Mountains with additional Cold Weather Advisories likely needed
for the northern half of the fcst area.

[WxUSAF]

There’s a very sharp trough associated with this clipper that looks like it will pass through early Saturday morning. Might be the arctic front? Guidance has snow associated with it upstream of us, very squally looking. But the mountains mostly kill it. 6z hrrr is the first run I’ve seen that gets some into the metro area. That may be worth watching.