Is we back? February discussion thread

[Kitz Craver]

Long, long way to go for that weekend potential. I wouldn’t bite yet.

[GCWarrior]

That was a weenie GFS run for sure. Very cold after the storm Sunday. See what happens.


.

[Ginx snewx]

Cmon guys no one posted most epic clown map of all time?  Lol just to piss off the regulars 

[Snowcrazed71]

15 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Soon 

Ha! Never was supposed to. It'd be a little bit on the shoreline but that was about it.

[CoastalWx]

GGW

[Kitz Craver]

GFS and EURO not too alike. 

[dendrite]

We get clowns like that a few times per winter

[ORH_wxman]

At least there’s a lot of action to track. Very very active pattern coming up. Could be a lot of disappointment too when you’re playing with fire along the boundary but there’s always a few patterns where you need to ride the line if you want the goods. 

[UnitedWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

At least there’s a lot of action to track. Very very active pattern coming up. Could be a lot of disappointment too when you’re playing with fire along the boundary but there’s always a few patterns where you need to ride the line if you want the goods. 

I'd rather take my chances near the Battle Zone then deal with the useless cold we've had

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

I'd rather take my chances near the Battle Zone then deal with the useless cold we've had

Yep. Stein over the last week-plus sucks. Especially once you get deeper into February. The sublimation/melting around the edges is pretty minimal when you are cold/dry in mid-January. But once you are in mid-February, even in a cold pattern, it really gets noticeable with those shards forming on snow banks and edges. Need to refresh that stuff.

[The 4 Seasons]

6Z Euro came in colder for the Fri/Sat threat. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Let’s figure out Wednesday and Friday first 

[The 4 Seasons]

20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cmon guys no one posted most epic clown map of all time?  Lol just to piss off the regulars 

BTW the 00Z UKMET also had a hit for that 23rd system at the end of the run. 

[CoastalWx]

Wednesday looks like junk. 

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wednesday looks like junk. 

might be ok  here but its close

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro op vs NAM/ GFS/ AI’s for Wednesday. Probably ends up snowy north of 90 and mix south 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Wednesday looks doable on the GFS. Euro has cooled a tad.  Brings some snow south into Mass.  a compromise would be good. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro op vs NAM/ GFS/ AI’s for Wednesday. Probably ends up snowy north of 90 and mix south 

6z nam is north of the euro now

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

6z nam is north of the euro now

Either Wednesday or Friday will have some ice here . Not sure which one yet . 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Broke out a separate thread for Wednesday.   NAM be damned 

 

[ineedsnow]

47 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We get clowns like that a few times per winter

usually not within 8 days

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 hours ago, TheSnowman said:

38° to 42° with Rainers is going to be a Net GAINER for many?  

Maybe for you down in the tropics.  
 

also, as an aside, we were playing a Rhode Island based card game yesterday (don’t ask) and one of the cards came up as Cumberlandite

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc also crushes SNE 

Different wave spacing/event mechanism -  when you say "also" it kinda sorta sounds like "same", whether you meant that or not.  So ... just sayn'   

It matters, because the CMC in fact has nothing from the same prospect that the GFS designed. 

[weatherwiz]

Ride the train of storms and just hope you end up on the right side of any boundary that may reside within the region. Certainly plenty of potential moving through the second half of the month. Someone is going to cash in the poker chips 

[Typhoon Tip]

Talk about threading a needle ... goodness

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

We get clowns like that a few times per winter

Show me one with 4feet ORH Berks. Thanks in advance 

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Show me one with 4feet ORH Berks. Thanks in advance 

ineedsnow posted a 60” one in PA weeks ago. But I only save fantasy maps that crush me.

[Typhoon Tip]

The 23/24 system could have some tepid support in a relative sense.   On whole, very negative PNA through the entire period, doesn't normally inspire wildly spun up and anchored coastals.  Certainly ... during a season where we've observed    0   productivity in coastals; persistence and trend begs to differ.  Ha.   However nested within, there is still a 2 to 3 day relative maxim in there.  It would not be altogether crazy to observe a system moving through at that time  Kind of with Ray on that... sub 980 mb lows tip-toeing around the coast line as though it were the work of some cryo-dystopian artist's white dream ...that's really is not what that signal is, however. 

It's 7+ days away still. There's time for the general circulation mode to alter enough - even idiosyncratically helps.  But the problem with a very negative PNA is that the W-E coordinate is the correction vector.  It's very heavily/statistically correlated.  So it's like yeah ... a system slips through the medium, but it's favored to be more middling in amplitude, moving fast along a more E trajectory.

 

[tavwtby]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Show me one with 4feet ORH Berks. Thanks in advance 

what was the range on those? also, didn't 15 or 17 have some insane clown maps that were showing like 60" in places, think it was only the nam tho, which tends to do that with every decent hit we get at least once 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

ineedsnow posted a 60” one in PA weeks ago. But I only save fantasy maps that crush me.

Ya there’s been a few this year, had that 40-80” run in the Ohio valley to SNE a month ago. Last year in mid Feb we had a lot of weenie runs when the ensembles were spitting out 20-30” means at 10:1 over the entire northeast