MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, dendrite said: We need an Amex ensemble. prob be 33 and R/S everyday if you smooth it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: weenievista at it again. wxbell is like 2-5 mean for that period. But still a huge improvement from 00Z so thats all that matters 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS and AI ensembles have a fairly good signal too. But this is almost 8 days out. Yes but there’s been a general signal on and off for a while, and doesn’t it make sense synoptically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: So overnight was doom and gloom….this flips the other way. Been terrible model consistency (including ensembles…we expect OPs to jump a lot) in the medium range since late January. Why I’ve largely ignored anything until within 72hrs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I wonder when the time will come when we can accurately predict snowfall amounts seven plus days out. I know that we have had storms that were easier to predict than others but it seems like recently we still can't figure out snow totals for a storm even 24 hours in advance. I wonder if AI will change that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 17 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Who cares Madeline Kahn blazing saddles “ i’ve seen thousands of men again and again…always going and coming and coming and going…and always too soon, right girls?” just like our storms 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said: I wonder when the time will come when we can accurately predict snowfall amounts seven plus days out. I know that we have had storms that were easier to predict than others but it seems like recently we still can't figure out snow totals for a storm even 24 hours in advance. I wonder if AI will change that? We can’t even measure them accurately 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: We can’t even measure them accurately That's true. Don't get me wrong, forecasts have improved enormously over the years but still far from perfect. You would think they would keep improving but it seems like performance plateaued a while ago. We haven't improved much at all in the past ten years. I've heard that they predicted the 1993 storm of the century like a week out but obviously that was an exception in those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Plenty of spread but def a lot more potent than yesterday 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: We can’t even measure them accurately Billerica proved that lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Plenty of spread but def a lot more potent than yesterday Those southern and eastern outliers have the mean further SE than would otherwise be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Pretty snowy EPS run overall. Has more chances after the 16th too. Mean is double digits across a lot of New England. It’s not a frigid pattern but it’s just not submitting to the classic Feb Niña torch idea that has been an instinct to gravitate towards for many of us Mets. It’s a real struggle to get sustained large positive departures on these runs. You’ll see a run or two that starts to look like that but then it disappears the next run or even on the same run it can’t last more than a day or two. The in-situ blocking seems to dominate us locally while the plains have an easier time getting big warmth. 8 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 28 minutes ago, dendrite said: We can’t even measure them accurately We can... but it doesn't mean "We do" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty snowy EPS run overall. Has more chances after the 16th too. Mean is double digits across a lot of New England. It’s not a frigid pattern but it’s just not submitting to the classic Feb Niña torch idea that has been an instinct to gravitate towards for many of us Mets. It’s a real struggle to get sustained large positive departures on these runs. You’ll see a run or two that starts to look like that but then it disappears the next run or even on the same run it can’t last more than a day or two. The in-situ blocking seems to dominate us locally while the plains have an easier time getting big warmth. It’s the theme of the winter…she wants to freeze/be cold. Sometimes that’s how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It’s the theme of the winter…she wants to freeze/be cold. Sometimes that’s how it goes. Hot off the press. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Embracing winter with a nice woods & water walk, snow shoeing on and around the lake. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: Embracing winter with a nice woods & water walk, snow shoeing on and around the lake. enjoy Lava Lake, i know that thing has burned you countless times over but not this season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Plenty of spread but def a lot more potent than yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, kdxken said: Hot off the press. Notice how the shades get lighter as you go closer to northeast coast. Not even sure it will be AN there. Under 50% probability. My guess is it will technically come in AN but not by much. Bush league torch. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 45 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: We can... but it doesn't mean "We do" Well snow measuring is an inexact science and probably the most difficult variable we routinely measure. It’s difficult to standardize measurements. And yeah, human error can really increase the errors as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 10 minutes ago, kdxken said: I guess we will see. Thanks for your input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Notice how the shades get lighter as you go closer to northeast coast. Not even sure it will be AN there. Under 50% probability. My guess is it will technically come in AN but not by much. Bush league torch. I mean at this point 40-45F will feel like a torch! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said: That's true. Don't get me wrong, forecasts have improved enormously over the years but still far from perfect. You would think they would keep improving but it seems like performance plateaued a while ago. We haven't improved much at all in the past ten years. I've heard that they predicted the 1993 storm of the century like a week out but obviously that was an exception in those days. I was a NWS student intern during the blizzard of 1993 & all we had in our local NWS office was the LFM model (48 hour model), the NGM model (48 hour model), the AVN model (I think was a 60 hour model) & the MRF model (which only went out 5 days). The MRF model started showing the potential for a major winter storm on the Tuesday before the storm. So, that was about 3 or so days of warning for a historic blizzard which in those days was quite good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: I mean at this point 40-45F will feel like a torch! Yes it will. Even a week of normal temps will feel very warm considering the last 3 weeks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 19 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I guess we will see. Thanks for your input. He’s become a poster of other folks output. A “Repost-err!.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Notice how the shades get lighter as you go closer to northeast coast. Not even sure it will be AN there. Under 50% probability. My guess is it will technically come in AN but not by much. Bush league torch. We’ve been saying this for quite sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Well snow measuring is an inexact science and probably the most difficult variable we routinely measure. It’s difficult to standardize measurements. And yeah, human error can really increase the errors as well. Yeah i just recently read through NWS' 14 page COOP snow measurement guidelines PDF. On the surface you wouldn't think that it's that complicated, but theres so many different variables and things to consider. I guarantee the average person who sends a public report thinks, "how can that be? you just stick a ruler in the ground after it snows and thats it" We have all these different programs with different standards with CoCoRaHs, CO-OP, Skywarn..etc. It would be nice if there was just one umbrella for everything I ran across this other program when looking at old PNS from the late 90s and early 00s that i can't figure out what it is. Something called SWIN observers? I tried searching but couldn't find anything. I was thinking maybe it was an acronym for SkyWarn Independent Network or something like that? Or it's something completely different that's obsolete. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: He’s become a poster of other folks output. A “Repost-err!.” Repost this 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 31 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: We’ve been saying this for quite sometime. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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