The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Ji said:

Is that megawatt?

I don’t think he is active on here, he lurks sometimes. 

[frd]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Jokes aside it’s a good sign we’ve had 2 cold winters in a row. Our struggles turning that into a lot of snow has more to do with the lack of STJ because…Nina, than anything else and cold dry wingers were always a thing going back 100 years. So glass half full maybe we are out of the main issue that plagued us from 2017-2024 and we just haven’t had a snowy winter yet (and I’ve not given up on this one yet we just need one flush hit and the pattern is far from hopeless). 

Next year is a Nino most likely, but the QBO will be the opposite direction. However, I still like the idea of increased blocking. 

[winter_warlock]

33 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

low on the coast..before, it was off.  We still miss, but it's closer

18z

12z

Ooh crap... That's enough to pull me back in !! 

[Paleocene]

Didn't see an 18z euro snow map posted yet, only saw the AIFS. here's reg euro. it's a tick NW of the AIFS, and smokes the boston metro area.

[H2O]

32 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

we still don't get much, but kinda funny that it got closer

Euro AI be all like this when we down on storm chances

[bncho]

18z EPS way west

[SnowenOutThere]

I still just can't see this storm delivering for people west of I-95 or north of I-64. We would need the coastal low to jump so far west and with the wave spacing out west I think its nearly impossible. It would take the same (if not more so) level of coincidences that made last weeks storm into a cutter to happen here to bring this storm back for most of our forum. Which once again, is possible, but extremely improbable.  

[Kay]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

And before anyone says “but it snows once in a while” yea it has to just enough to keep us engaged. If it never snowed at all we would have all either moved or moved on to other things in our lives by now. No no no, in order to inflict the absolute most pain and suffering possible they have to give us just enough hope to keep us coming back each time for the next kick in the nads. 

That's right. In part it's where we live. The land of the possible but not probable. Iykwim. Intermittent rewards. Tailor made for both addiction and torment. Lol

[WesternFringe]

1 hour ago, stormy said:

Yes, I know it has the highest verification scores. But, I don't consider it to be a king. A king rules.

The Euro only rules if misinformed people allow it to rule.

Last weekend the Euro was wrong about predominant precipitation type. It was wrong about about total qp. It was wrong about  total snowfall amount. If we had received Euro predicted rainfall for the last 6 months, we wouldn't be in a severe drought now. 

These are the important factors to rate a model.

 It is not a king.  Sometimes it is right, sometimes it is wrong.

Longtime expert formulation rating for a forecast.........  Use 60% ECMWF and 40% GFS...............

You are overly personifying a weather model dude.  Relax

[NorthArlington101]

LWX bullish for our central VA/southern folks. Presumably some more to go here? 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

18z EPS way west

It really did.  

[stormtracker]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It had to trend closer in order to inflict the maximum amount of emotional trauma. 

It knows.  It's trolling at this point.

[Benjamn3]

Blacksburg has me at about 2-4 north west of Roanoke in Botetourt county. Seems a touch bullish to me. 

[Bob Chill]

19 minutes ago, MDsnowPRO said:

If anyone deserves it, it’s you 

I wish weather worked that way lol but ma nature on has one way of doing things... like it or not, you get what you get and that's that... lol

My climo down here is a mix of the MA and SE. There are several setups that aren't all that uncommon where my yard and the DMV gets all snow in the same similar range. I'll mix or rain a lot more but I'm looking really forward to the first clean decent sized event where we celebrate together. It'll happen. Just a matter of when. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

18z EPS way west

Yeah I was just looking at that. HH GFS craps the bed and now the Euro/EPS is trending better..maybe.

[stormtracker]

0z is it for me.  If no movement, I think we're cooked.  Euro just did enough to keep me hanging on.  

[Paleocene]

I'm only like 25 miles from the 1" line on that Euro run. I'm ready to get hurt again.

[EHoffman]

Lol this is just gonna trend to be a DC screwjob isn't it?

[Benjamn3]

Just now, EHoffman said:

Lol this is just gonna trend to be a DC screwjob isn't it?

Hope so. Lolol 

[bncho]

This hobby sucks. The 0z Euro could show a blizzard and we still all know that it probably ain't happening.

[CAPE]

Looking like a visit to Rehoboth might be the way to go to see some snow in an hours drive. Plus DFH.

[SnowGolfBro]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It really did.  

Digital blue over my yard! We take lol

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

here's reg euro. it's a tick NW of the AIFS, and smokes the boston metro area.

They totally deserve it

[Kay]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

I'm only like 25 miles from the 1" line on that Euro run. I'm ready to get hurt again.

I'm in the light blue and I'm ready to abscond with this. Run away. Elope. Tell the families later.

[Paleocene]

Just now, CAPE said:

Looking like a visit to Rehoboth might be the way to go to see some snow in an hours drive. Plus DFH.

It's times like these I wish I didn't have children under the age of 12 and I could just YOLO out there for a snow day and crush dank cruisers. 

[CAPE]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

They totally deserve it

They need something after the Belichick snub lol

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

This hobby sucks. The 0z Euro could show a blizzard and we still all know that it probably ain't happening.

Eh.  That’s extreme. If 0z showed a blizzard I think we would all stand at attention.  

[clskinsfan]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Jokes aside it’s a good sign we’ve had 2 cold winters in a row. Our struggles turning that into a lot of snow has more to do with the lack of STJ because…Nina, than anything else and cold dry wingers were always a thing going back 100 years. So glass half full maybe we are out of the main issue that plagued us from 2017-2024 and we just haven’t had a snowy winter yet (and I’ve not given up on this one yet we just need one flush hit and the pattern is far from hopeless). 

Hopefully we dont have to worry about it next winter. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EPS; 20-30% make it to DC

[SnowenOutThere]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

LWX bullish for our central VA/southern folks. Presumably some more to go here? 

I love the NWS (I am trying to intern with them after all!) but I'm starting to become a bit skeptical of their snowfall totals. They predicted over 8 inches of snow/sleet and I ended up with 5. Before that in NYC they predicted double of what I got. I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing to hedge your forecast to motivate public officials towards the snowier outcomes but I do think they should be read with that goal in mind.