The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[aldie 22]

All I know is if this thing trends all the way back to me somebody to my se is getting the storm of their lifetime 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

NAM looked like it was about to crush us.

so I went and looked on southernwx and it appears one guy downloaded 6 of the 68 member weathernext ensemble before the download glitched.  He says all 6 look good for their region and the latest one he posted looks like a blizzard for us. 

[NorthArlington101]

Can we cut the chatbot quotes? I promise everyone it doesn’t know what it’s talking about.

[J.Mike]

1 hour ago, somecallmetim said:

https://deepmind.google/science/weathernext/
 

brought to you by the non-chemists who won the a Nobel Prize for Chemistry in 2024 for using Deep Mind to solve the protein folding problem.

WWow, what a platform. Anyone know how to use it?

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Can we cut the chatbot quotes? I promise everyone it doesn’t know what it’s talking about.

If you ask it the same forecast outlook 20 times, it gives 19 different answers. Seems reliable to me. Just hug the forecast you like best.

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, J.Mike said:

WWow, what a platform. Anyone know how to use it?

https://efisher828.github.io/weathernext/ 12 hours delayed with limited maps but this is the best i know of

[psuhoffman]

My best guess looping the h5 and mslp is the nam was going to pull that low right up off VA beach or Norfolk then slide ENE based on how the flow was backing and where the upper low was about to cut off. 

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Icon , come on up

Not super promising so far...may even be backsliding

[jayyy]

FV3 at the end of its run looked even slightly better than NAM at same time. Hopefully that’s a precursor of good things to come from the GFS.

Yep. Same core as the GFS. Gfs should be solid

[Nomz]

At h60 ICON might be a nuke

[anotherman]

It’s backsliding and a nuke at the same time?

[Climate175]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Can we cut the chatbot quotes? I promise everyone it doesn’t know what it’s talking about.

Legit was for the giggles lol. 

[psuhoffman]

[jayyy]

We are painstakingly close. Good lord

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, anotherman said:

It’s backsliding and a nuke at the same time?

Hey, I could be wrong.  I hope I am.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

isobars pushing north in that panel

[Buddy1987]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Hey, I could be wrong.  I hope I am.

Whatev’s it’s the ICON..

[Ephesians2]

Yeah at 72h it is definitely east of its last run 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Hey, I could be wrong.  I hope I am.

doing play by play of the icon? Should we do the JMA too?

 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

We are painstakingly close. Good lord

Still 4-5 days out. Close is good. 

[anotherman]

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

doing play by play of the icon? Should we do the JMA too?

 

How was the JMA last run?

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

isobars pushing north in that panel

It was coming north, at least enough to get out area before turning ENE. 

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Wish that was the euro showing it. That’s beautiful 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It was coming north, at least enough to get out area before turning ENE. 

Could have been a 2/5/10 snow zone with that track. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Wish that was the euro showing it. That’s beautiful 

Wait 2.5 hours 

[Terpeast]

Quick note about 0z data ingest… it’ll most likely take a few runs for the models to gel after that. It won’t be an instant change at 0z. More like a trend from 0z to 12z, then we should have a better idea of the track. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Wait 2.5 hours 

I’ll give you 5 bucks if the euro looks like that.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

doing play by play of the icon? Should we do the JMA too?

 

Yeah, not sure why we're analyzing a weather model here.   

Let's delve into the potential new flavors of Coca Cola.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Wait 2.5 hours 

You really think so?