The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[overcautionisbad]

Yeah put that precipitation over Central Va

[LeesburgWx]

A namming in this situation would throw out 75" totals. Great way to start 00z. GFS is the conductor of this train until proven otherwise

[Nomz]

NAM @ h78 looks better, but remember its still the NAM at range. Although I will say most of the improvements were made at initialization, which makes me think that the drops are probably positive data.

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, bncho said:

Okay, a little bit of WeatherNEXT action, and that panel is DAMN good.

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said:

Miller A?

Yess

[Amped]

I love how the closed 500mb low dissappears over Ontario, only to reform over southern Michigan 24 hrs later.  Thanks for making the setup unnecessarily complicated.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z 12K NAM 7am Sunday compared to 18Z EURO and GFS

[bncho]

WeatherNEXT member #6 is a beaut, Clark.

[Conway7305]

BOOM! 

[winter_warlock]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

18z0z

0z looks better!!!!

[jayyy]

NAM is definitely a rather large step in the right direction. Again, it’s at range, but also… the important shit happens inside 60 hours. Let’s see how the Gfs looks here shortly

[Bob Chill]

Would probably get to neutral/neg in time for something similar to the gfs

 

[stormtracker]

Well. 1 for 5 so far

[Climate175]

00z already grabbing our attention closer lol. 

[LeesburgWx]

Ok, so the list is getting longer but we still need some of the other noteworthy models to join. We have GFS, GFS ens, ICON ens, WeatherNExt, and NAM, and RGEM all following the GFS lead too.

[StormyClearweather]

 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

WeatherNEXT member #6 is a beaut, Clark.

Like to see that pink and blue a lil farther north unless that model don't go out that far

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

WeatherNEXT member #6 is a beaut, Clark.

Why are we going through the individual members of an AI ensemble 

[bncho]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Like to see that pink and blue a lil farther north unless that model don't go out that far

I'll shut up about the WxNEXT until the full 68-member ensemble is out

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said:

 

Yeah, posted a while back.   Maybe this is helping things.   What if the GFS scored a coup.  That'd be hilarious

[Bob Chill]

Back yard post for my southern neighbors... and it's just getting started lol

[Terpeast]

Model reshuffling in progress… and I don’t think we’re done yet! 

The NS wave practically has to do a full lap around the hudson bay and phase with a piece from the GOA/Alaska vortex. Very complex and very volatile. So far 18z (and 0z NAM) jumped our way instead of the other way. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Back yard post for my southern neighbors... and it's just getting started lol

This woulda been a 2’ run for you bobert

[Buddy1987]

FV3 at the end of its run looked even slightly better than NAM at same time. Hopefully that’s a precursor of good things to come from the GFS.

[wxdude64]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

FV3 at the end of its run looked even slightly better than NAM at same time. Hopefully that’s a precursor of good things to come from the GFS.

Just a quick question @Buddy1987. You having gusty winds last hour or two?

[Amped]

We just need the gfs to trend west by the same amount and we got it

[weathercoins]

One night in the future we will go to sleep before 12:50 AM, but I guess that’s a next week thing 

[Solution Man]

Icon , come on up

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, wxdude64 said:

Just a quick question @Buddy1987. You having gusty winds last hour or two?

Holy friggin crap YES! Out of nowhere. Keeps making the dog pop up after she’s fallen back asleep.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, weathercoins said:

One night in the future we will go to sleep before 12:50 AM, but I guess that’s a next week thing 

We can rest when normies are outside in the summer. Until then, the frozen land belongs to us.