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February 2026 OBS & Discussion


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16 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Last 3 HRRR runs show way less snow than earlier runs...hoping it's wrong...

snku_acc-imp.us_ma.png

It's a nowcast situation but it's the kind of system where pretty consistently you want to be in eastern New England/Boston area. If banding consolidates there it probably means lots of subsidence garbage here. 

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Front now going through Erie PA and Buffalo NY, still not all that windy as system begins to develop its offshore low component tonight. Will predict right on midnight for fropa at EWR-NYC-LGA, a few minutes earlier for some northern forum people and a few minutes later in parts of NJ and south shore LI. Could be a rather gradual temperature drop judging by post-frontal readings in Ontario, takes six hours after fropa there for readings to go sub-zero (F). With stronger winds it might take four hours to go sub-15 F but probably it will just stabilize at whatever value after sunrise and then drop again tomorrow afternoon/evening. 

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Smithtown 8:30 pm 28/20  Flurries

Due to the developing flizzard emergency, we are suspending the hourly ISP 1978 re-enactment.  Here for your perusal is the complete set of metars (decoded) from that once in a lifetime event:

 

KISP - Islip, NY                                  
Date Time (EST) Temp   Dew Point   Humidity   Sea Level Pressure   Visibility   Wind Dir   Wind Speed   Gust Speed   Events
2/6/1978 12:00 AM 23.0   3.0   42   30.26   7.0   North   11.5   -    
2/6/1978 1:00 AM 26.1   1.9   35   30.20   7.0   NNE   17.3   -    
2/6/1978 2:00 AM 25.0   1.0   36   30.22   7.0   NNE   13.8   -    
2/6/1978 3:00 AM 25.0   19.9   81   30.19   2.0   NE   15.0   -   Snow
2/6/1978 4:00 AM 25.0   19.9   81   30.15   3.0   NE   16.1   -   Snow
2/6/1978 5:00 AM 25.0   21.0   85   30.12   2.0   NE   23.0   -   Snow
2/6/1978 6:00 AM 24.1   19.0   81   30.09   2.0   NNE   23.0   -   Snow
2/6/1978 6:25 AM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   30.08   1.0   NNE   23.0   -    
2/6/1978 7:00 AM 24.1   19.9   84   30.07   0.5   NNE   23.0   -   Snow
2/6/1978 8:00 AM 24.1   21.0   88   30.01   0.2   NE   25.3   -   Snow
2/6/1978 8:11 AM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   30.00   0.5   NE   20.7   -    
2/6/1978 9:00 AM 26.1   21.9   84   29.99   0.2   NE   21.9   -   Snow
2/6/1978 9:15 AM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   29.94   0.2   NE   19.6   34.5    
2/6/1978 10:00 AM 27.0   24.1   89   29.94   0.1   NE   23.0   34.5   Snow
2/6/1978 11:00 AM 27.0   25.0   92   29.88   0.1   NNE   25.3   40.3   Snow
2/6/1978 12:00 PM 27.0   25.0   92   29.78   0.1   NNE   23.0   34.5   Snow
2/6/1978 12:05 PM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   29.74   0.0   NE   29.9   39.1    
2/6/1978 1:00 PM 27.0   26.1   96   29.69   0.0   NNE   32.2   41.4   Snow
2/6/1978 2:00 PM 28.0   26.1   92   29.63   0.0   NE   32.2   40.3   Snow
2/6/1978 3:00 PM 28.9   28.0   96   29.54   0.0   NE   40.3   56.4   Snow
2/6/1978 4:00 PM 30.0   28.0   92   29.49   0.0   NE   46.0   59.8   Snow
2/6/1978 5:00 PM 30.0   27.0   88   29.46   0.0   NE   28.8   47.2   Snow
2/6/1978 6:00 PM 28.0   27.0   96   29.44   0.1   NE   34.5   -   Snow
2/6/1978 7:00 PM 27.0   26.1   96   29.40   0.0   NE   38.0   46.0   Snow
2/6/1978 8:00 PM 26.1   26.1   100   29.34   0.0   North   28.8   43.7   Snow
2/6/1978 9:00 PM 21.9   19.9   92   29.30   0.0   North   28.8   48.3   Snow
2/6/1978 10:00 PM 23.0   21.9   96   29.26   0.1   North   23.0   40.3   Snow
2/6/1978 10:30 PM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   29.24   5.5   NNE   23.0   40.3    
2/6/1978 11:00 PM 32.0   30.0   92   29.24   0.6   NNE   25.3   -   Snow
2/7/1978 12:00 AM 33.1   30.9   92   29.24   0.8   NNE   28.8   -   Snow
2/7/1978 1:00 AM 33.1   30.9   92   29.28   0.2   NE   18.4   -   Snow-Thunderstorm
2/7/1978 1:05 AM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   29.26   0.2   NE   19.6   27.6    
2/7/1978 2:00 AM 30.0   28.9   96   29.28   0.1   NNE   26.5   -   Snow
2/7/1978 3:00 AM 27.0   26.1   96   29.31   0.3   NNE   28.8   -   Snow
2/7/1978 4:00 AM 25.0   24.1   96   29.33   0.2   NNE   28.8   40.3   Snow
2/7/1978 5:00 AM 24.1   23.0   96   29.35   0.2   NNE   25.3   -   Snow
2/7/1978 5:05 AM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   29.35   0.4   North   23.0   34.5    
2/7/1978 6:00 AM 23.0   21.0   92   29.38   0.5   North   23.0   -   Snow
2/7/1978 7:00 AM 24.1   19.9   84   29.40   5.0   North   23.0   29.9   Snow
2/7/1978 8:00 AM 24.1   19.9   84   29.43   1.0   North   23.0   -   Snow
2/7/1978 9:00 AM 25.0   21.0   85   29.47   0.5   North   26.5   -   Snow
2/7/1978 9:10 AM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   0.00   0.1   NW   19.6   26.5    
2/7/1978 10:00 AM 24.1   21.0   88   29.50   0.1   NNW   20.7   27.6   Snow
2/7/1978 10:04 AM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   0.00   0.6   NNW   20.7   27.6    
2/7/1978 11:00 AM 24.1   21.0   88   29.52   0.1   NNW   20.7   -   Snow
2/7/1978 12:00 PM 24.1   21.9   91   29.55   0.1   NNW   25.3   35.7   Snow
2/7/1978 1:00 PM 25.0   21.9   88   29.57   0.2   NNW   20.7   35.7   Snow
2/7/1978 1:15 PM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   29.57   1.0   NW   23.0   36.8    
2/7/1978 2:00 PM 26.1   21.9   84   29.60   0.2   NNW   23.0   38.0   Snow
2/7/1978 3:00 PM 26.1   21.9   84   29.63   0.2   NNW   23.0   -   Snow
2/7/1978 3:30 PM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   0.00   3.0   NNW   23.0   32.2    
2/7/1978 4:00 PM 26.1   24.1   92   29.66   1.0   NW   20.7   -   Snow
2/7/1978 4:10 PM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   29.68   5.0   NW   20.7   -    
2/7/1978 5:00 PM 26.1   24.1   92   29.71   5.0   NNW   20.7   28.8   Snow
2/7/1978 6:00 PM 27.0   24.1   89   29.76   5.0   NNW   23.0   31.1   Snow
2/7/1978 7:00 PM 26.1   23.0   88   29.79   10.0   NW   17.3   -   Snow
2/7/1978 8:00 PM 26.1   21.9   84   29.83   10.0   NW   18.4   -    
2/7/1978 9:00 PM 26.1   23.0   88   29.86   10.0   NW   19.6   -    
2/7/1978 10:00 PM 26.1   23.0   88   29.90   10.0   NW   15.0   -    
2/7/1978 11:00 PM 26.1   21.9   84   29.94   10.0   NW   15.0   -    

 

                     
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Moderate snow at ROC and radar imagery over w NY and L Ont suggest frontal band is activating and post-frontal squalls are driving in behind, so I would caution that parts of Long Island could see similar results off Long Island Sound by late overnight. 

Winds are picking up, widespread gusts to 40 mph near Lake Huron and in south central ON. 

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On 2/5/2026 at 2:15 PM, SACRUS said:

 

 

 

Last 4 5 days "warmup"
Both were able to reach/exceed freezing the 5 days

EWR:
2/2: 37 / 15 (-2) 
2/3: 36 / 17 (-6)
2/4:  35/26 (-2)
2/5:  34 / 17 (-7)
2/6: 34 /18 )-7)

 

NYC:
2/2: 35 / 14 (-3)
2/3: 33 / 23 (-6)
2/4: 33 / 26 (-4)
2/5:  32 / 20 (-8)
2/6: 33 / 23 (-6)

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3 hours ago, Blizzwalker said:

A reminder that perceptions of winter are location dependent. Even within this sub -forum.  Some of us didn't have a mix, we had a 16 inch snowstorm, followed by unusual cold which lent staying power to the pack. Some of us NW forum members will remember it as a snowy, wintery period...I've had to repeatedly knock 3 foot icicles off my roof line. 

I mean I’m at the southern ass end of the metro, 10 miles from the coast and it was an immensely memorable storm. 10.5ish inches with mix that accumulated, mostly icy - total glacier. I don’t know anywhere around this area it wasn’t a substantial snowfall. 

I still have 70% of this pack today, and had icicles everywhere for over a week. Personally I don’t know how anyone could view this as not an outstanding winter period, it wasn’t a prolific block of repeat snowfall, but it was a substantial storm + lingering cold area wide which is near as good as it gets. But we all do have our preferences and I think people instinctually attribute it to location and I don’t necessarily agree that’s what it is, we just all like and look for different things - it’s not intrinsic to one location vs another. I dislike March not because I’m in a southern location, but more because of long days and imminent spring marking the end of winter, a season I enjoy looking forward to, as an example. 

We just have to accept we all like different things, I read all three main northeast forums and the amount people bicker over this stuff baffles me. 
 

VxhFSOO.jpeg
 

Biggest storm here since 16 inches + on 1/29/22. 

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1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Smithtown 8:30 pm 28/20  Flurries

Due to the developing flizzard emergency, we are suspending the hourly ISP 1978 re-enactment.  Here for your perusal is the complete set of metars (decoded) from that once in a lifetime event:

 

KISP - Islip, NY                                  
Date Time (EST) Temp   Dew Point   Humidity   Sea Level Pressure   Visibility   Wind Dir   Wind Speed   Gust Speed   Events
2/6/1978 12:00 AM 23.0   3.0   42   30.26   7.0   North   11.5   -    
2/6/1978 1:00 AM 26.1   1.9   35   30.20   7.0   NNE   17.3   -    
2/6/1978 2:00 AM 25.0   1.0   36   30.22   7.0   NNE   13.8   -    
2/6/1978 3:00 AM 25.0   19.9   81   30.19   2.0   NE   15.0   -   Snow
2/6/1978 4:00 AM 25.0   19.9   81   30.15   3.0   NE   16.1   -   Snow
2/6/1978 5:00 AM 25.0   21.0   85   30.12   2.0   NE   23.0   -   Snow
2/6/1978 6:00 AM 24.1   19.0   81   30.09   2.0   NNE   23.0   -   Snow
2/6/1978 6:25 AM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   30.08   1.0   NNE   23.0   -    
2/6/1978 7:00 AM 24.1   19.9   84   30.07   0.5   NNE   23.0   -   Snow
2/6/1978 8:00 AM 24.1   21.0   88   30.01   0.2   NE   25.3   -   Snow
2/6/1978 8:11 AM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   30.00   0.5   NE   20.7   -    
2/6/1978 9:00 AM 26.1   21.9   84   29.99   0.2   NE   21.9   -   Snow
2/6/1978 9:15 AM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   29.94   0.2   NE   19.6   34.5    
2/6/1978 10:00 AM 27.0   24.1   89   29.94   0.1   NE   23.0   34.5   Snow
2/6/1978 11:00 AM 27.0   25.0   92   29.88   0.1   NNE   25.3   40.3   Snow
2/6/1978 12:00 PM 27.0   25.0   92   29.78   0.1   NNE   23.0   34.5   Snow
2/6/1978 12:05 PM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   29.74   0.0   NE   29.9   39.1    
2/6/1978 1:00 PM 27.0   26.1   96   29.69   0.0   NNE   32.2   41.4   Snow
2/6/1978 2:00 PM 28.0   26.1   92   29.63   0.0   NE   32.2   40.3   Snow
2/6/1978 3:00 PM 28.9   28.0   96   29.54   0.0   NE   40.3   56.4   Snow
2/6/1978 4:00 PM 30.0   28.0   92   29.49   0.0   NE   46.0   59.8   Snow
2/6/1978 5:00 PM 30.0   27.0   88   29.46   0.0   NE   28.8   47.2   Snow
2/6/1978 6:00 PM 28.0   27.0   96   29.44   0.1   NE   34.5   -   Snow
2/6/1978 7:00 PM 27.0   26.1   96   29.40   0.0   NE   38.0   46.0   Snow
2/6/1978 8:00 PM 26.1   26.1   100   29.34   0.0   North   28.8   43.7   Snow
2/6/1978 9:00 PM 21.9   19.9   92   29.30   0.0   North   28.8   48.3   Snow
2/6/1978 10:00 PM 23.0   21.9   96   29.26   0.1   North   23.0   40.3   Snow
2/6/1978 10:30 PM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   29.24   5.5   NNE   23.0   40.3    
2/6/1978 11:00 PM 32.0   30.0   92   29.24   0.6   NNE   25.3   -   Snow
2/7/1978 12:00 AM 33.1   30.9   92   29.24   0.8   NNE   28.8   -   Snow
2/7/1978 1:00 AM 33.1   30.9   92   29.28   0.2   NE   18.4   -   Snow-Thunderstorm
2/7/1978 1:05 AM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   29.26   0.2   NE   19.6   27.6    
2/7/1978 2:00 AM 30.0   28.9   96   29.28   0.1   NNE   26.5   -   Snow
2/7/1978 3:00 AM 27.0   26.1   96   29.31   0.3   NNE   28.8   -   Snow
2/7/1978 4:00 AM 25.0   24.1   96   29.33   0.2   NNE   28.8   40.3   Snow
2/7/1978 5:00 AM 24.1   23.0   96   29.35   0.2   NNE   25.3   -   Snow
2/7/1978 5:05 AM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   29.35   0.4   North   23.0   34.5    
2/7/1978 6:00 AM 23.0   21.0   92   29.38   0.5   North   23.0   -   Snow
2/7/1978 7:00 AM 24.1   19.9   84   29.40   5.0   North   23.0   29.9   Snow
2/7/1978 8:00 AM 24.1   19.9   84   29.43   1.0   North   23.0   -   Snow
2/7/1978 9:00 AM 25.0   21.0   85   29.47   0.5   North   26.5   -   Snow
2/7/1978 9:10 AM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   0.00   0.1   NW   19.6   26.5    
2/7/1978 10:00 AM 24.1   21.0   88   29.50   0.1   NNW   20.7   27.6   Snow
2/7/1978 10:04 AM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   0.00   0.6   NNW   20.7   27.6    
2/7/1978 11:00 AM 24.1   21.0   88   29.52   0.1   NNW   20.7   -   Snow
2/7/1978 12:00 PM 24.1   21.9   91   29.55   0.1   NNW   25.3   35.7   Snow
2/7/1978 1:00 PM 25.0   21.9   88   29.57   0.2   NNW   20.7   35.7   Snow
2/7/1978 1:15 PM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   29.57   1.0   NW   23.0   36.8    
2/7/1978 2:00 PM 26.1   21.9   84   29.60   0.2   NNW   23.0   38.0   Snow
2/7/1978 3:00 PM 26.1   21.9   84   29.63   0.2   NNW   23.0   -   Snow
2/7/1978 3:30 PM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   0.00   3.0   NNW   23.0   32.2    
2/7/1978 4:00 PM 26.1   24.1   92   29.66   1.0   NW   20.7   -   Snow
2/7/1978 4:10 PM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   29.68   5.0   NW   20.7   -    
2/7/1978 5:00 PM 26.1   24.1   92   29.71   5.0   NNW   20.7   28.8   Snow
2/7/1978 6:00 PM 27.0   24.1   89   29.76   5.0   NNW   23.0   31.1   Snow
2/7/1978 7:00 PM 26.1   23.0   88   29.79   10.0   NW   17.3   -   Snow
2/7/1978 8:00 PM 26.1   21.9   84   29.83   10.0   NW   18.4   -    
2/7/1978 9:00 PM 26.1   23.0   88   29.86   10.0   NW   19.6   -    
2/7/1978 10:00 PM 26.1   23.0   88   29.90   10.0   NW   15.0   -    
2/7/1978 11:00 PM 26.1   21.9   84   29.94   10.0   NW   15.0   -    

 

                     

I experienced the storm in East Northport.  The things that I remember about it are the consistently low visibility that lasted through out that day.  It averaged between 1/8 to 1/4 mile sometimes less all day.  The flakes were quite small probably because of the strong winds whipping in off LI Sound.  I measured 30” in that storm.  I didn’t see a storm like that again until 2016 when I also measured 30” where I am in Bethlehem, PA.  

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