February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[Brian5671]

Could be a hot summer nationwide with such dry soils everywhere

[donsutherland1]

Somewhat cooler weather has returned to the region. Temperatures will mainly top out in the middle to upper 30s tomorrow. The weekend will see highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. It could become even milder with highs in the lower to perhaps middle 40s next week.

Some precipitation could arrive on Sunday or Monday. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +7.93 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.731 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 93% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

 

[SACRUS]

Today's split

 

EWR: 37 / 30 (-0)
NYC: 36 / 29 (-2)
 

[MJO812]

A little dusting coming Saturday morning 

[TriPol]

17 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

I am back guys and i made a thread for Presidents' day storm potential

 

 

Of course you did.

[bluewave]

Definitely a more traditional Nina-like pattern coming up for the rest of February. But it’s really interesting that we see a piece of the cooler Northeast relative to other areas which has been in place since November continuing.

So more of a close to average temperature pattern here with the warmest temperatures missing our area. Longer term the models are forecasting a transition to El Nino. Nina to Nino summer transitions typically haven’t been very warm here like we saw during years like 2023, 2009, 1997 and 1986.

But the last strong drought La Nina to El Nino in 2002 was very warm. That year was a much warmer winter than we just had. So we can see competing influences this year with extreme drought across much of the CONUS and a lingering cold pool near the Northeast.

It will be interesting to see if the Northeast can hold onto the local cooler readings relative to other areas or the drought feedback ridge to our west eventually builds into the Northeast with the heat.

 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Definitely a more traditional Nina-like pattern coming up for the rest of February. But it’s really interesting that we see a piece of the cooler Northeast relative to other areas which has been in place since November continuing.

So more of a close to average temperature pattern here with the warmest temperatures missing our area. Longer term the models are forecasting a transition to El Nino. Nina to Nino summer transitions typically haven’t been very warm here like we saw during years like 2023, 2009, 1997 and 1986.

But the last strong drought La Nina to El Nino in 2002 was very warm. That year was a much warmer winter than we just had. So we can see competing influences this year with extreme drought across much of the CONUS and a lingering cold pool near the Northeast.

So it will be interesting to see if the Northeast can hold onto the local cooler readings relative to other areas. Or the drought feedback ridge to our west eventually builds into the Northeast with the heat.

 

Really hoping we can get some ridging here into the spring. Last thing I want is endless gunk on easterly winds. It just makes it miserable and doesn’t help the drought. 

[ILoveWinter]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Really hoping we can get some ridging here into the spring. Last thing I want is endless gunk on easterly winds. It just makes it miserable and doesn’t help the drought. 

Feels like we haven't had a Spring with nice long lasting ridging in quite some time! 

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Really hoping we can get some ridging here into the spring. Last thing I want is endless gunk on easterly winds. It just makes it miserable and doesn’t help the drought. 

This has been our coolest November to mid-February in over a decade.

But since the Northern stream and Western ridge was so dominant, we couldn’t achieve the snowfall totals of 1996, 2014, 1994, 2003, and 2011.

Some lingering influence from the longer term lower snowfall pattern since 2018-2019 even though this winter was much colder.

But I am very happy we got our big benchmark snowstorm which brought many close to the long term 25 to 30 average with the more active STJ for a week in late January.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Coolest 11-1 to 2-12 periods since 1991
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1996-02-12	33.7	0
2	2014-02-12	35.1	0
3	1994-02-12	35.3	0
4	2026-02-12	35.4	0
-	2003-02-12	35.4	0
5	2011-02-12	35.8	0
6	2001-02-12	35.9	0
7	2015-02-12	36.1	0
8	2004-02-12	36.2	0
9	2009-02-12	36.8	0
10	2018-02-12	36.9	0

[EastonSN+]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

So 8 days to get from 3 to 6. Can we get to 8 by the 8th of March for one last snow window?

 

[donsutherland1]

The big weather story for the New York City area this weekend through the middle of next week will be the combination of a February thaw and relatively quiet weather. A weak system will likely pass to the south Sunday night and Monday perhaps bringing some light precipitation for a time, mainly to the south of New York City. Temperatures during any precipitation will likely be mainly near or above freezing. The thaw could crest on Tuesday with the high reaching the upper 40s and possibly 50° in Central Park. Beyond the five-day period, some showers or periods of rain could be possible on Wednesday or Thursday with the temperature remaining above freezing for the duration of the event. 

The five-day figures from the NBM:

For context, the forecast averages are somewhat more range-bound and somewhat milder than the values for the overall 1991-2020 climate reference period. Exceptional warmth remains unlikely.

Despite the upcoming thaw, February remains extremely likely to be colder than normal overall. 

[EastonSN+]

Looks like the PNA starting to improve at the end of the run. Likely a bit early as we would be in phase 6 however this should start to take form during the first week of March. This is NOT too late for snowfall for NYC.

[WeatherGeek2025]

cold morning 24 now

[SACRUS]

27 / 13 off a low of 17 here.   Mid upper 30s today and likely the lowest of the next 8-9 days.   Back to the mid / upper 40s Saturday for the warmest spots and perhaps the first 50+ on Tuesday since Jan 22/11th. Ridge pushes into the east with the warmest temps south and west but still riding above avg as a whole for the preriod 2/14 - 2/21.  Storm #3 misses 2/15-2/16. 

It Does look to turn a bit more active by the 20th - the 28th and with cold lingering nearby could spell some sloppy mixes or sneaky re-whitening.  

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 65 (1957)
NYC: 64 (1951)
LGA: 65 (1951)
JFK: 56 (2023)

 

Lows:

EWR: 4 (1979)
NYC: -1 (1914)
LGA: 8 (2016)
JFK: 0 (1967)

 

Historical:

 

1784 - Ice floes blocked the Mississippi River at New Orleans, then passed into the Gulf of Mexico. The only other time this occurred was during the "Great Arctic Outbreak" of 1899. (David Ludlum)

1885 - The "Friday the 13th" avalanche at Alva, UT, killed sixteen persons, and left thirteen others buried for twelve hours before being rescued. (David Ludlum)

1887: Chicago, Illinois: Chicago's temperature rises from 0 °F on the 13th to 58 °F on the 14th.
The 58 °F rise is the biggest day-to-day rise on record. The city will experience a similar jump in temperature in March 1972. (Ref. WxDoctor)

1899 - It was the coldest morning of record along the Gulf Coast. The temperature dipped to 7 above zero at New Orleans LA and Pensacola FL, and plunged to -1 degree at Mobile AL. The mercury dipped to -2 degrees at Tallahassee, the coldest reading of record for the state of Florida. (David Ludlum)
Minden, LA -16°, trace of snow recorded in Fort Meyers, the farthest south that snow had been officially recorded in the US until the Miami snow of 1977.(Bob Ryan's 2002 Almanac) 
The temperature in Louisiana plunged to -16° below zero, a record for the state. (Ref. High and Low Temperature for the US )
New Orleans, Louisiana: After weeks of bitter cold, residents of New Orleans find ice 2 inches (5 cm) thick on the Mississippi River. The river reportedly is frozen from its source in Minnesota almost to its mouth in the Gulf of Mexico. Chunks of ice float out into the Gulf. (Ref. WxDoctor)

1899: The "Snow King" storm was a its peak on the afternoon of the 13th with wind speeds of 35 mph and gust of 48 mph and a temperature that remained in the single digits throughout the storm. By the evening of the 13th the storm had ended with a total of 34.2 inches of snow on the ground in Washington. Of that amount, about 20 inches of snow fell during the blizzard. The water equivalent of all the snow events was 3.69 inches. Over 40 inches of snow was on the ground in areas south and east of DC. Drifting was generally 4 to 6 feet ;however, some drifts were as high as 15 feet. In areas of upper Montgomery County, railroad cuts filled with drifting snow to a depth of 20 feet. Both PA and OH had an all time record low temperature of -39 °F, Staunton, VA had 40-50 inches of snow on the ground and Salisbury had more than 50 inches.
(p.53 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss)

1905 - Morning lows of -29 degrees at Pond AR, -40 degrees at Lebanon KS, and -40 degrees at Warsaw MO established all-time records for those three states. (The Weather Channel)

 

1905: Freezing temperatures were recorded over the states of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, and Missouri. Morning lows of 29 degrees below zero at Gravette, Arkansas, 40 below at Lebanon, Kansas, and 40 below at Warsaw, Missouri, established all-time records for those three states.  The low temperature at Vinita, Oklahoma, plummeted to 27 degrees below zero. The temperature would be tied at Watts in January 1930 and Blackwell and Medford in February 2011. The negative 27-degree reading is cold enough to be the 2nd lowest temperature on record in Oklahoma. The coldest is currently 31 degrees below zero, recorded at Nowata on February 10, 2011.

1958: Tallahassee, FL recorded their largest snowfall on record. Close to 3 inches fell in 5 hours during the early hours. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1962: St. Louis, MO recorded their low temperature record for the month as they dropped to -18°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1981 The highest barometric pressure ever recorded at the Reagan National Airport of 31.06 inches of mercury the previous record was 31.01 set on January 27, 1927.(Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
The highest barometric pressure ever recorded at Richmond International Airport was 31.04 inches.(Ref. Richmond Weather Records)
 

1987 - A storm in the western U.S. produced heavy rain over central California. Chews Ridge reported nearly eleven inches of rain in 24 hours, and extensive flooding occurred in San Benito County. The Mount Rose ski resort in Nevada experienced a "white-out" with 60 mph winds and 36 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong winds in the wake of a storm in the northeastern U.S., gusting to 60 mph at Oswego NY, produced six foot snow drifts in northeastern Ohio. High winds in the mountains of Utah, gusting to 106 mph at the Snowbird ski resort, contributed to a forty car pile-up on Interstate 15, near the town of Bluffdale. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain and flash flooding from central Texas to western Pennsylvania. Up to ten inches of rain deluged western Kentucky in two days, with five day totals ranging up to 13.16 inches at Gilbertsville Dam KY. Flooding caused tens of millions of dollars damage, including 18 million dollars damage at Frankfort KY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A slow moving cold front brought heavy snow to Utah, Colorado and Wyoming. Big Horn WY reported 15 inches of snow, and up to 22 inches was reported in Utah. In Colorado, 8 to 12 inches of snow fell over the northwest suburbs of Denver, while 16 to 22 inches was reported in the high mountain elevations west of Fort Collins. Strong winds accompanied the heavy snow, and bitter cold weather followed in its wake. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1995: A National Weather Service Survey Team concluded a weak (F1) tornado occurred at the General Motors Desert Proving Grounds facility in Mesa, Arizona. Moderate damage was observed. A roof was damaged, and about 20 vehicles were destroyed and moved around. One car was lifted, moved several feet, and set down inside a roped-off area containing solar exposure equipment. The tornado traveled northeast and lasted about five minutes. The image below is from the February 1995 Storm Data.

1999: The low at Fairbanks, AK dropped to -36° marking the 19th consecutive day with low temperatures of -35° degrees or colder, setting an all-time record for the location. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

2000: Late in the day and into the early morning hours of the 14th, severe thunderstorms spawned six tornadoes over southwestern Georgia that killed 19, injured 202, and caused $35 million in damages. An F3 tornado hit southern Camilla, killing 11 people and wounding 175 others in the town.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Morning low of 11°. Day 60 This winter with snow cover.

It's been a good winter for ice and snow cover but this three week stretch with virtually no snowfall during the peak snowfall period is getting a little boring. However still having almost a solid foot of snow on the ground makes it much more bearable. 

[weatherpruf]

27 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Morning low of 11°. Day 60 This winter with snow cover.

It's been a good winter for ice and snow cover but this three week stretch with virtually no snowfall during the peak snowfall period is getting a little boring. However still having almost a solid foot of snow on the ground makes it much more bearable. 

we've at least had a wintry look and feel. but it has been a huge let down to see nothing and at this point, i would bet against anything major happening from here on out. drought is the culprit here. better than incessant rain like 2007's la nina and pumped southeast ridge. even then we managed two sleet events. can't buy any precip right now.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

New York City, central park specifically, now at 34 days this winter with snow cover. I'm pretty sure that's their highest winter total since 2020/2021, although I'm doing it from memory and don't remember the exact number from that winter. I know there was a 24 day stretch after the 17.4 inch snowstorm  of February 1-2 2021.

@donsutherland1@bluewaveDon or Bluewave might check me on that when they get a chance.

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

New York City, central park specifically, now at 34 days this winter with snow cover. I'm pretty sure that's their highest winter total since 2020/2021, although I'm doing it from memory and don't remember the exact number from that winter. I know there was a 24 day stretch after the 17.4 inch snowstorm  of February 1-2 2021.

@donsutherland1@bluewaveDon or Bluewave might check me on that when they get a chance.

This is actually the highest number of days since Winter 2014-2015 (55 days). Winter 2020-2021 had 32 days.

[bluewave]

50 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Morning low of 11°. Day 60 This winter with snow cover.

It's been a good winter for ice and snow cover but this three week stretch with virtually no snowfall during the peak snowfall period is getting a little boring. However still having almost a solid foot of snow on the ground makes it much more bearable. 

This is the first time in 60+ years on Long Island that a 6” snowpack has lasted 10 days or more with only 28.6” of seasonal snowfall so far. Previous years had 46” to 68” inches of snow. So this is the best extended 6” snowcover for a winter with only average snowfall. 

Number of Consecutive Days Snow Depth >= 6 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	37	0	2015-01-27 through 2015-03-04
2	18	0	2026-01-26 through 2026-02-12
3	16	0	2005-01-23 through 2005-02-07
4	14	0	1978-02-07 through 1978-02-20
5	11	0	2013-02-09 through 2013-02-19
-	11	0	2011-01-27 through 2011-02-06

Seasonal snowfall for above years

2015…63.7”

2026…28.6”

2005…58.8”

1978….68.0”

2013…46.9”

2011….55.3”

[IrishRob17]

48 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Morning low of 11°. Day 60 This winter with snow cover.

It's been a good winter for ice and snow cover but this three week stretch with virtually no snowfall during the peak snowfall period is getting a little boring. However still having almost a solid foot of snow on the ground makes it much more bearable. 

Low of 10 here with 10" at the stake. That said, the snowpack is covered in pine needles/ twigs from the wind not to mention the growing accumulation of deer debris, both solid and liquid.

[SACRUS]

 

Snowpack still (realtime) evident on the satellite loop, we'll see how much is intact by Tue pm / wed Am when the area could see the first 50s since mid Jan.

 

 

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Snowpack still (realtime) evident on the satellite loop, we'll see how much is intact by Tue pm / wed Am when the area could see the first 50s since mid Jan.

 

 

Some south facing lawns/hills have some bare spots but as expected this is a very resilient snowpack because of how much water is in it. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

24 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Low of 10 here with 10" at the stake. That said, the snowpack is covered in pine needles/ twigs from the wind not to mention the growing accumulation of deer debris, both solid and liquid.

The deer are disgusting, people that don't see them up close might not understand that. They sleep under the large pines in the back because the snowpack is not as deep and they leave a mess. I'll leave it at that. 

[IrishRob17]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The deer are disgusting, people that don't see them up close might not understand that. They sleep under the large pines in the back because the snowpack is not as deep and they leave a mess. I'll leave it at that. 

My relatives from down south, you know, Long Island, get all excited when they see them here. I tell them that they are long legged rats that eat everything, leaving raisinetes everywhere. 

[MANDA]

8 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

My relatives from down south, you know, Long Island, get all excited when they see them here. I tell them that they are long legged rats that eat everything, leaving raisinetes everywhere. 

ok...I think I will put my bagel and coffee off to the side for a while.  

[forkyfork]

15 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The deer are disgusting, people that don't see them up close might not understand that. They sleep under the large pines in the back because the snowpack is not as deep and they leave a mess. I'll leave it at that. 

we are badly overpopulated