February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I agree with some of what you say, but you obviously never lived in Albany LOL. 

I did for many years. And late Feb was often the time where it began to feel Spring-like in many years. Its low elevation and tendency to downslope makes it a warm location relative to the surrounding hills.

[eduggs]

The small number of very high QPF individual ensemble members for this weekend's event suggests a very low likelihood but high ceiling threat.

[wishcast_hater]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

This is a real thread the needle situation with the borderline temps. Only a slight chance but at least it's something to watch. 

It seems every storm is thread the needle for NYC

[ForestHillWx]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I did for many years. And late Feb was often the time where it began to feel Spring-like in many years. Its low elevation and tendency to downslope makes it a warm location relative to the surrounding hills.

I don’t man; I was in Albany for 7 years in the early 2000s and while it wasn’t deep winter like the ADK or Greens, it was damn cold and lingered well into May. 

I remember the rugby pitch had some cold tourneys, Fountain Day had icebergs on 2 occasions and we had a snow shower on graduation day. 

[North and West]

Who is all ?

aren’t you ready for the Mets?


.

[Rjay]

WWA for areas a little further south now

 

[North and West]

The entire winter has been very dry going back to November

It’s been dry the past few years.


.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

It seems every storm is thread the needle for NYC

We’re the most difficult metro area in the Megalopolis to forecast in the winter by far. Every storm type can nail us or totally shaft us. The storm types that frequently nail Boston and it’s clear 3-4 days out can slam us, scrape or screw us. Same for the big Miller As that hit DC/Baltimore. 

[eduggs]

6 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

I don’t man; I was in Albany for 7 years in the early 2000s and while it wasn’t deep winter like the ADK or Greens, it was damn cold and lingered well into May. 

I remember the rugby pitch had some cold tourneys, Fountain Day had icebergs on 2 occasions and we had a snow shower on graduation day. 

I'm not sure what you consider "damn cold." But average highs are in the 40s beginning around the first of March. Snow typically doesn't linger long, except during unseasonably cold periods. Maybe compared to NJ you remember it as having been cold, but climatologically/typically spring comes relatively quickly near sea level all the way up the Hudson Valley in March.

[nycsnow]

Noticeable melting today and it’s not even sunny out

[NorthShoreWx]

The mean temperature here since December 1 (12/1 - 2/9) has been 30.4°

The mean for the past 18 days has been 20.0°

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

I'm not sure what you consider "damn cold." But average highs are in the 40s beginning around the first of March. Snow typically doesn't linger long, except during unseasonably cold periods. Maybe compared to NJ you remember it as having been cold, but climatologically/typically spring comes relatively quickly near sea level all the way up the Hudson Valley in March.

Albany is colder, by several degrees, and snowier than Boston. I don't think most people around Boston, or Albany for that matter, would call March spring. I've lived in the HV for many years at elevation 600 feet, which is about mean elevation for most of the HV and I barely call April Spring.

Everyone sees things differently I guess.

[eduggs]

9 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Albany is colder, by several degrees, and snowier than Boston. I don't think most people around Boston, or Albany for that matter, would call March spring. I've lived in the HV for many years at elevation 600 feet, which is about mean elevation for most of the HV and I barely call April Spring.

Everyone sees things differently I guess.

It's just a word. Everybody has their own definition. For me, the key distinction is whether snow/ice is increasing or decreasing on the whole (or if it could with precipitation). That takes into account all the factors that play into winter like diurnal temp ranges and sun angle. When net snow starts to decrease, I call that spring. For other people, maybe if it can snow and is occasionally below freezing, then it's still winter (e.g., Nov or April).

I've lived in both Boston and Albany. Boston Logan (where NWS measurements are taken) is warmer and less snowy than most people who don't live there think due to the marine influence. The airport is on a man-make island out in the harbor.  The NWS station doesn't get a ton of snow because of that, unlike places just to the north or west of Boston. But Boston does get the occasion big snowstorm. Albany, by comparison, gets fewer big events but more small events. Albany often avoids the chilly backdoor cold fronts that Boston experiences in April.

[eduggs]

35 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Albany is colder, by several degrees, and snowier than Boston. I don't think most people around Boston, or Albany for that matter, would call March spring. I've lived in the HV for many years at elevation 600 feet, which is about mean elevation for most of the HV and I barely call April Spring.

Everyone sees things differently I guess.

The elevation of downtown Albany is between about 150ft and sea/river level.  The airport (NWS) is just below 300ft. The City is noticeably warmer than the towns on the escarpment to the west or the Taconics to the east.

Most of the true HV is actually below 500ft. You are in the Hudson Highlands. But of course most people refer to the entire region, hill country or valley, as the HV.

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, North and West said:

aren’t you ready for the Mets?


.

April

[jm1220]

Jones Beach water temp today is 33. That would explain an actual seabreeze today on the barrier islands. Sheesh. Mid to upper 30s in northern Nassau, around 32 in Long Beach. 

[batmansascientist]

Strange question, but this seems like the group to answer. 

I follow the hourly temps from NOAA for Central Park, and the other day, there were a few readings of major precipitation (about 1.12" total for the day . This data was clearly incorrect and fixed for the daily results. When this kind of thing happens, is there an explanation for what happened? Just curious because I saw it and I was confused where the data was originating. 

 

 

Feb 7, 12:51 pm	12	-9	37	-7	NW	22G39	10.00		FEW039 FEW055 OVC070	1006.50	29.57	29.74	0.60		1.12		20	11
Feb 7, 11:51 am	12	-9	37	-3	WNW	13G33	10.00		OVC060	1006.40	29.57	29.74	0.52
Feb 7, 10:51 am	12	-10	36				10.00		OVC060	1006.70	29.58	29.75
Feb 7, 9:51 am	11	-8	41	-8	NW	21G38	10.00		OVC060	1006.20	29.56	29.73
Feb 7, 8:51 am	14	-6	40	-5	WNW	23G40	10.00		OVC065	1005.20	29.54	29.71
Feb 7, 7:51 am	17	-4	38	2	WNW	16G35	10.00		OVC065	1004.10	29.51	29.67
Feb 7, 6:51 am	20	-1	39	6	WNW	15G33	10.00		OVC060	1003.00	29.48	29.64			0.48	0.64	27	20
Feb 7, 5:51 am	25	8	48	14	WNW	12G31	10.00		OVC070	1001.10	29.43	29.59	0.04
Feb 7, 4:51 am	27	20	74	18	WNW	9G21	3.00	Haze	FEW023 FEW030 OVC055	999.90	29.39	29.55	0.06
Feb 7, 3:51 am	26	21	81	18	WNW	8	4.00	Haze	BKN055 OVC085	999.70	29.38	29.54	0.17	0.38
Feb 7, 2:51 am	26	20	77	22		3	5.00	Haze	OVC070	999.80	29.39	29.55	0.13
Feb 7, 1:51 am	26	21	81	22		3	3.00	Haze	FEW013 OVC040	1000.40	29.40	29.56	0.08
Feb 7, 12:51 am	26	21	81	16	WSW	10G16	1.00	Lt snow	BKN014 OVC027	1000.80	29.42	29.58	0.07		0.16		30	26
Feb 6, 11:51 pm	27	21	78	22		5	4.00	Lt snow	FEW014 BKN047 OVC100	1001.20	29.43	29.59	0.08						33	23
Feb 6, 10:51 pm	26	21	81	18	W	7	2.50	Lt snow	SCT017 OVC037	1001.70	29.44	29.60	0.01
Feb 6, 9:51 pm	27	21	78	18	W	9	1.50	Lt snow	OVC029	1002.10	29.46	29.62	T	T
Feb 6, 8:51 pm	28	18	65	19	WSW	9	7.00		OVC047	1002.50	29.47	29.63
Feb 6, 7:51 pm	30	16	55	24		6	10.00		SCT034 BKN055 OVC085	1002.60	29.47	29.63

 

[SACRUS]

 

36 / 7 here

 

 

[vegan_edible]

59 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

I don’t man; I was in Albany for 7 years in the early 2000s and while it wasn’t deep winter like the ADK or Greens, it was damn cold and lingered well into May. 

I remember the rugby pitch had some cold tourneys, Fountain Day had icebergs on 2 occasions and we had a snow shower on graduation day. 

im from albs. i can attest that it will be a freezer throughout march. full seasonal depression energy until may

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

30 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The elevation of downtown Albany is between about 150ft and sea/river level.  The airport (NWS) is just below 300ft. The City is noticeably warmer than the towns on the escarpment to the west or the Taconics to the east.

Most of the true HV is actually below 500ft. You are in the Hudson Highlands. But of course most people refer to the entire region, hill country or valley, as the HV.

I'm aware of all of that. I've lived in the region my entire life with the exception of the four years I spent at the university of Wisconsin.  
 

What I wasn't aware of is how mild and delightful you perceive March is in Albany. If that's how you see it, as blind as that is, that's all that matters. 

[deathstar9]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

March has a very different feel to the other months. Temperature-wise it's like late Nov into early December but with a much higher sun angle. So yes it can snow, but it almost always melts quickly. Elevation makes more difference in March too. Albany, NY tends to switch to Spring pretty quickly in March most years, while the high country of southern VT and the Catskills can still feel like deep winter. It's very location dependent but almost always categorized by freeze-thaw, mud, and residual salt grime.

I’m about 50 miles north of NYC, would take March 2017 or March 2018 over Feb 2006 or Jan 2016 any day.  Had way better snow retention than those two classics that started melting out almost before the snow ended.

[NEG NAO]

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

April

I root for snow through mid March. Then it's time for spring. 

[Roger Smith]

The low crossing the Great Lakes has pulled milder air in from the plains states and highs in w PA and even w NY have reached high 40s to near 50 F. This mild sector will rapidly collapse southeast tonight but especially for those south of Newark, don't be surprised if there's a brief spike in temperatures to around 40-43 F for a few hours around midnight. The milder air will not likely reach the surface for lower Hudson valley, parts of metro NYC and most of Long Island.

By morning a colder WNW flow will have arrived and any brief spell above 35 F will be replaced by that cooler air mass. This path for brief warming probably also defines the southern limit of where measurable snow could fall from the system, other than any briefly heavy snow showers in the WNW flow. 

[guinness77]

2 hours ago, vegan_edible said:

im from albs. i can attest that it will be a freezer throughout march. full seasonal depression energy until may

I only lived there one year ‘95-96, but this was my experience there. Not sure I saw the sun for 2-3 months. 

[jm1220]

22 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

I only lived there one year ‘95-96, but this was my experience there. Not sure I saw the sun for 2-3 months. 

I have a bad feeling the frigid waters will come back and bite us all through April and May as we sit in mid 40s and gunk/drizzle. It'll take sustained warmth to turn that around. 

[kat5hurricane]

7 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I just can’t give this winter a good grade if we end up with below normal snow especially with blown opportunities in all this cold air. Anyone can see it as they want lol. 

It depends on preference. If you're one to prefer persistent snowcover and cold then I don't know how this could be less than a B but if you look purely at snowfall amounts in total then it's been average at best as it's been predominantly cold and dry outside of the big storm and the 2-3 moderate ones.

[kat5hurricane]

5 hours ago, nycsnow said:

Yup…. Hopefully we can get something else if not it was a waste of cold. 

I've said this before but I don't see how it's a waste of cold when we had a 10-18" areawide snowstorm a few weeks ago. 

[donsutherland1]

The persistent and often severely cold pattern is now breaking. 

Tomorrow will be even milder with the temperature topping out in the upper 30s. A few places could reach 40°. A cold front will likely cross the region, possibly touching off a few snow flurries or rain showers. It will turn somewhat cooler into the weekend.

By early next week highs will mainly be in the upper 30s and lower 40s with lows in the lower 30s. 20s are possible outside New York City.

Precipitation could arrive on Sunday or Monday. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +5.72 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.407 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 91% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.3° (4.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

 

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

I've said this before but I don't see how it's a waste of cold when we had a 10-18" areawide snowstorm a few weeks ago. 

i'm still navigating the piles and hit one again today; still can't park on the street, still have to wear ice grip shoes, still freezing my ass off on morning walks. today seemed balmy. yes i would have liked a few more events; but we had a few in december, and then we had a major storm where we almost had a foot here if not for sleet, in a regime hostile to snow chances; and it stuck around forever. they were digging for a week here. let's take the win guys.  it does not look like much else will be happening, but i would take this every year.....